1) Penn State fans should look towards 2023
Penn State is staring down the barrel of a 10-2 regular season and a birth a NY6 bowl game – a great season for almost every other college football program. But this Saturday proved just how big the gap is between Penn State and Big Ten juggernauts Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions got taken behind the woodshed and beaten into smithereens by Michigan – something that should not be acceptable no matter the year.
No matter how you slice it, Penn State is a blueblood of college football and belongs in the elite tier of the Big Ten alongside Ohio State and Michigan. Any season where the gap between Penn State and the top teams in the conference is this big should be considered a failure. And after what we saw on Saturday, there is virtually no reason why we should expect Penn State to be able to keep it close against Ohio State in two weeks.
It’s been clear ever since he took over as starter that Sean Clifford is not the type of player that can solely make Penn State a legitimate Big Ten title contender. However, this year’s group of talent on defense and along the offensive skill positions made some (including myself) think things could be different.
Psych! Penn State’s offensive line – though improved from last year – still has all sorts of holes. Sean Clifford – although a great leader and improved in pre-snap reads – seemingly has not taken a single step forward in his downfield passing game over the years. And the defense – one that I thought would be conference-leading – is void of real difference makers along the front. In a year where Ohio State and Michigan both look capable of winning the national championship, Penn State is nowhere near close to them. Being that far away from your top two rivals should be considered a failure by the coaches and players.
However, 2023 could really be something special for Penn State. TE Brenton Strange, receivers KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Parker Washington, and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton headline a very strong group of skill position players that should be returning. With only two players gone from the offensive line two-deep, Penn State will need 2022 5-star QB Drew Allar to be just marginally better than Clifford in order for this offense to be the best they’ve had since Saquon Barkley was here.
The defense will have to wait and see how many players declare for the draft – particularly in the secondary. But with so many young, inexperienced players needing to step up in the front-seven this year, another year of experience should do wonders for the players’ development.
Penn State fans, do yourselves a favor and don’t even bother having hope for the OSU game. It’s likely to have a similar – if not worse – result as the beatdown you watched this past Saturday. In fact, take the rest of the season off. Any season when you are this far out of contention with Ohio State and Michigan should be considered a wasted season.
Instead, gear up for 2023. That’ll be the best shot you have at winning the Big Ten East since 2019. But if you fall as short of Ohio State and Michigan next year as you appear to have this year, then it might be time for a serious reevaluation of where you stand as a program.
2) West is down to Illinois and Purdue
Just as everyone expected before the year started, right? Illinois and Purdue sit atop the Big Ten West as the only teams with one conference loss. Illinois already has head-to-head wins over Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, while Purdue’s beaten Minnesota and Nebraska from their division. I’d be genuinely shocked if another team outside of these two get to Indy (assuming their respective offensive stars in Chase Brown and Aidan O’Connell stay healthy).
With their dominance over Minnesota this past weekend, Illinois has gone from a nice story to genuinely good football team. Their defense just might be the best in all of college football, and their offense is getting more balanced by the week. We all know Chase Brown is the workhorse and heartbeat of their offense (41 carries against Minnesota SHEESH!). But QB Tommy DeVito is getting more comfortable as the weeks go by. His QBR has improved in each of the past 5 games and he is now completing over 70% of his passes at a respectable 7.2 ypa. If he continues to take care of the ball like he has (only two INTs in seven games), this ground-and-pound control-the-clock offense will be hard for anyone to stop.
Purdue, meanwhile, has utilized the help of walk-on Devin Mockobee to reinvent their run game that had been completely absent throughout 2021 and the first few games of 2022. In the past three games, Mockobee has averaged 126 scrimmage yards and a TD. And while their secondary has given up big plays in the past two weeks against Maryland and Nebraska, their defensive front has remained stout. This team’s not perfect, but QB Aidan O’Connell will allow them to score with just about any team in the country.
There is a very good chance that the Big Ten West will be decided on November 12th in Champaigne when a ranked, 7-2 Purdue team takes on an 8-1 Illinois team. Given the contrast of these two teams, that is looking like a truly exciting matchup – and one we’ll dive into deeper as the date approaches.
3) QB injuries could derail 2 seasons
Luckily, these two injuries do not appear to be as severe as they did on Saturday. Taulia Tagovailoa went down writhing in pain and holding his knee in the 4th quarter of the Indiana game. Taulia has struggled with injuries throughout his career, so many fans expected the worst.
It came out yesterday that it was a sprained MCL and that Taulia even has a chance to play this weekend against Northwestern. Although I think that is unlikely, Maryland is fortunate to get a bye week following that game. With two weeks to rest, you’d hope Taulia should be good to go for their 4-game stretch to end the season.
Maryland has never finished with more than 7 wins since they joined the Big Ten. In fact, they haven’t topped that total since 2010. An 8 or even 9-win season seems within reach for a Maryland squad that is hoping to use this season as a building block towards becoming a Big Ten East contender. However, they will need Taulia at 100% in order to hit that 8-win mark.
Even without Taulia, Maryland should get by Northwestern this week. But backup QB Billy Edwards is more reliant on his legs to make plays. I don’t think he’d be capable of replacing Taulia’s effectiveness in pushing the ball downfield – something that is integral to this offense’s success. With so much talent on this team, I think anything below 8 regular-season wins would be considered a failure. And if Taulia misses more than this game or reaggravates this injury, six or seven wins is certainly on the table.
Minnesota, meanwhile, saw their long-time starter Tanner Morgan leave the game with a concussion. Although he has not been ruled out for their game against Penn State this weekend, I’d be surprised if he made the start.
If Minnesota was ever to win the West, it really seemed like this would be their year. Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin are the only three teams to have won this division. And with all three teams currently at the bottom of the standings, the Gophers seemed primed to step up. Instead, they’ve been crippled by an offense that’s even more one-dimensional than I thought. And if Tanner Morgan can’t play this Saturday, they could face 9-man boxes in Penn State’s white-out game.
This is a win both teams desperately need. For Minnesota, a 10-2 season and consideration for a NY6 bowl is not out of the question. Even without their first Big Ten title appearance, that’d be a great season for PJ Fleck and the Gophers. But drop this game and that’d make 3 straight losses as they head into a matchup against an underrated Rutgers team that will treat every game from here on out as their championship. If Tanner Morgan can’t go for that game, Rutgers is more than capable of shutting that Minnesota run game down and stealing a win.
Even though the Big Ten Championship seems out of reach for Maryland and Minnesota, both still have a chance at a great season in front of them. But not if their starting QBs are unable to join them.
4) Michigan State saved their season
Before this weekend, I thought the wheels were falling off of Michigan State. I thought Mel Tucker was lost coaching this defense, the offensive line was porous, Payton Thorne had digressed from last year, and this team had already thrown in the towel. It seemed inevitable that Michigan State was going to miss a bowl game for just the 3rd time since 2007. Then Mel Tucker proved why the Spartans gave him such a lucrative extension.
Although this team still has various flaws, Michigan State put together their best game of the season when they needed it most. Thorne had by far his best game of the year and showed why so many people were excited to watch his connection with receiver Jayden Reed. Although the offensive line was unable to get much of a push in the run game, they allowed just two sacks and allowed Thorne enough time to pick apart the Badger secondary.
Defensively, MSU gave up only 283 total yards. Obviously they were not facing the stiffest competition, but they allowed less than four yards per carry and left Graham Mertz with nowhere to throw the ball. Wisconsin has plenty of things to reevaluate offensively, but seeing this performance out of a defense that has struggled ever since Tucker took over is a positive sign.
Neither Michigan State nor Wisconsin are going to have the type of year they were hoping for. And although this win certainly feels good for Sparty, they have a lot to fix if they want to get back to being a Big Ten East contender. But seeing this team put together their best game of the season after four straight losses instead of roll over and accept a woeful season was certainly impressive.
Now, Michigan State will have to beat one of Michigan, Illinois, or Penn State in order to reach a bowl game (assuming they pick up wins against Rutgers and Indiana). After the kind of start they had to the season, a bowl appearance, win, and 7-6 record would definitely be something to celebrate in East Lansing.
5) An historic OSU vs Michigan game awaits us
We all kind of had a feeling this would be the case, but week 7 ensured this year’s edition of The Game will be one for the record books. Each team seemingly has only two true hurdles that could prevent the serie’s second 11-0 vs 11-0 matchup.
For Michigan, they hope to top Mel Tucker for the first time since he’s been coach. Coming off their first win since week 2 and fresh from a bye week, there’s reason to believe the Spartans could give Michigan a good push. The Wolverines then host Illinois the week before traveling to Columbus. Not only is Illinois a genuinely good team, but it may be difficult for Michigan to not look ahead to the following week.
Ohio State, on the other hand, takes on Penn State over Halloween weekend. Even though the Nittany Lions looked weak against Michigan, traveling to Happy Valley is never an easy task. Then, Ohio State has their own challenge the week before hosting their rival in the finale. The Buckeyes have to travel to Maryland to face a talented offense led by (hopefully) fully-healthy Taulia Tagovailoa. As mentioned before, it will be objectively difficult for Ohio State to not have the Michigan game lingering in the back of their minds.
I truly believe it will be a couple of undefeated and top-3 teams that square off in Columbus. And what a battle it should be. Both teams have the capability of attacking you on the ground and grinding out yards. Both teams also have the ability to attack you on the perimeter with speed. Both teams are in the top 10 nationally in yards allowed per game, points allowed per game, and point scored per game. Both have incredible strength along the offensive line as well as two of the best running back duos in the country.
Michigan’s passing attack is not as explosive or efficient as Ohio State’s. And the Buckeyes’ offensive line has not been as dominant as the Wolverine’s. And both teams have showed glimmers of weakness in the back end of their defenses. Nonetheless, Ohio State and Michigan are as close to flawless teams as there is in college football this year.
It is unclear whether the loser of this game will have a legitimate shot at still getting to the CFP. But it doesn’t matter. Ohio State will be out for blood after last year’s beatdown in the Big House. Michigan will be looking to prove last year wasn’t an anomaly and they can hang with Ohio State year in and year out. It is sure to be a fantastic game in an incredible environment. Football fans of every kind should be excited for this one.
It’s starting to look like Ryan Day vs Jim Harbaugh might be the “10 Year War” type rivalry we originally expected out of Meyer vs Harbaugh.