Last Week: 2-3 Overall: 17-8
Nebraska covered easily and the over hit in the Maryland vs Indiana game by 10 points to give me my two wins of last weekend.
But Penn State is clearly not as good as I thought – or maybe Michigan is way better than I thought. Either way, PSU didn’t come close to covering +7 as they went down 41-17.
I thought the wheels were coming off this Michigan State team and Jim Leonhard had Wisconsin back on track to contend in the West, but maybe I just overreacted from Wisconsin beating up on a really really bad Northwestern defense. MSU won outright after I picked Wisconsin -7.
And finally, Illinois beat Minnesota outright after I picked Minnesota to cover -6.5. But to be fair, that prediction was made thinking Tommy DeVito and Isaiah Williams would be out. Coach Bielema made it sound like Illinois would be down several starters in the week leading up to the game. Both played and both played well on Saturday.
Certainly a disappointing weekend after finishing no worse than 3-2 in the previous weekends. But if gambling has taught me anything, it’s to never give up! We have a 5-game slate coming up and some juicy lines to pick from.
1) Purdue (+2.5) at Wisconsin
I really think Purdue wins this game. But for the sake of being safe in a pretty unpredictable Big Ten West, I’ll take them just to cover.
The Boilermakers have the most lethal offense out of any team in the West and is going up against a defense that just let Payton Thorne have a field day. And Aidan O’Connell is much better than Thorne. It’s clear this is not the same Wisconsin defense as years’ past. Purdue may get off to a slow start given the environment and their stretch of four close games, but they will be able to put up points against this struggling defense thanks to their balanced offensive attack.
Purdue has had troubles giving up plays in the back-end of their defense. But luckily for them, this Wisconsin aerial attack has been MIA all year long. Chimere Dike has stepped up and made a few big plays, but the Mertz to Dike connection is not nearly as threatening as what they’ve faced in Maryland and Nebraska’s attack the past two weeks.
Simply put: Purdue will be able to score on Wisconsin. Wisconsin has trouble putting up points against anyone. Purdue +2.5 seems like a lock to me.
2) Minnesota at Penn State (-4)
This has more to do with the question mark hovering over Tanner Morgan’s status for this game. If he isn’t able to go and help stretch the defense away from Ibrahim, I don’t see how Minnesota keeps this close. Penn State surely will come into this game with a much different approach following the 400 yards they gave up on the ground against Michigan. I can’t see Penn State playing like that again.
Not to mention, it’s Penn State’s annual whiteout.
Ibrahim will be able to make some plays no matter who plays quarterback. But after letting Tommy DeVito have a field day against them, I have some serious concerns over this Minnesota defense.
This Penn State team will be thirsty for a win and possesses more talent than Minnesota in pretty much every position group. I’d be comfortable taking this line all the way up to 6.5, so PSU -4 seems like a great bet to me.
3) Indiana at Rutgers (-3)
I circled this game way back in the preseason as Rutgers’ best chance to get their first home Big Ten game since November of 2017. Fresh off a bye, Schiano knows they need to win this game if they want any chance of getting to a bowl game. And he should have his team playing like it.
This is their first game since dismissing OC Sean Gleeson and they get an extra week of preparation. I think this will help Rutgers develop a more cohesive QB rotation. With Noah Vedral healthy the past two weeks, Rutgers ran a seemingly random revolving door of Vedral and Simon at QB. Rather than help keep the defense on their toes, the quick substitutions seemed to just rob the Scarlet Knights of any momentum.
Their mobile threat Gavin Wimsatt returns this week, so they will have three healthy quarterbacks to rotate through. I expect Schiano and the new offense to use these three guys a little more strategically than they have been. Considering Indiana’s struggles on defense, I think there is a chance Rutgers can actually move the ball consistently.
Rutgers also has one of the most underrated defenses in the country. Even with their lopsided 49-10 loss at Ohio State, Rutgers is top 10 nationally in total yards and rushing yards allowed per game, and 12th in yards per play. They should be able to overwhelm a weak Indiana offensive line, eliminate the run game, and force some turnovers.
While I am confident in Rutgers to win the game, the spread is a little shakier for me. Given Rutgers’ offensive incompetence so far this year, it’s hard to imagine they are able to control the entirety of the game. But they should benefit from some short fields courtesy of the defense, so a 4-7 point win seems reasonable to me.
4) Iowa at Ohio State (-29.5)
This is probably the toughest call out of all my picks. Iowa’s defense is built to stop the big play and force offenses to go on 10+ play drives. While Ohio State has shown more of a propensity to do that than last year, I still think the coaching staff is itching for those explosive plays. It is entirely possible Ohio State could get too greedy and struggle to put up points.
But at the end of the day, this Iowa offense is just so bad. Coming off their bye, I am sure Kirk Ferentz will have some trick plays dialed up to keep the OSU defense on its heels. But the Hawkeyes just do not have the personnel to string together enough positive plays to keep the Buckeye offense on the sideline.
One way or another, Ohio State will get theirs. They are also coming off a bye and are much healthier than they’ve been the past few weeks. Both heads of their dynamic running back duo are healthy, and it sounds like JSN is trending towards playing his first full game all year. As talented as this Iowa defense is, I have a hard time seeing anyone hold this offense to under 40 points.
Meanwhile, I am more confident in Iowa getting shutout than I am in them scoring 10 or more points. The possibility of a defensive TD always looms, but I think the Ohio State defense is itching for their first shutout since 2019. It’ll likely be a tight one and might depend on how long Ohio State keeps their foot on the gas, but I like OSU to cover -29.5.
5) Northwestern at Maryland (U51.5)
This one is assuming Taulia doesn’t play, which it doesn’t appear he will as of Friday. Northwestern’s defense is downright horrendous and might give up 51 points to Maryland alone if their star QB was healthy. But with freshman Billy Edwards likely to start, I think the Terps take a more conservative offensive approach.
Edwards appears to be a more natural and talented runner than Taulia. Though he went 0-3 passing when he got subbed in against Indiana, he rushed the ball 5 times for 53 yards and a TD. I expect him and Roman Hemby to try to grind out drives on the ground against a team that gave that is 13th in the Big Ten in rushing yards and yard per carry allowed.
The Wildcat offense has looked almost just as bad as the defense, failing to top 24 points in any game since their season-opener against Nebraska. Scoring less than 18 point per game, they won’t be able to capitalize on Maryland’s weakness in their back end.
This game has more of a 24-10 feel. I think Maryland gets out to an early lead and then tries to run the game out. 51.5 points seems awfully high for a game featuring one incompetent offense, and another offense without their best player.