1) Jeff Brohm disappoints, again
I really thought this was the year Purdue could do something special. Even after a 1-2 start (in which they outgained Penn State and Syracuse by a combined 199 yards in their two losses), the Boilermakers seemed to have picked up the pieces during a four-game win streak. One could chalk those two losses up to early-season blunders and instead focus on the improvement they showed in wins over Minnesota, Maryland, and Nebraska. Although their four wins in that streak came by a combined 19 points, Purdue seemed to have as much momentum as anyone in the conference.
Then their trip to Madison came. Sure, Purdue may have been a bit gassed from not having their bye week yet. But this was a Wisconsin defense that made Payton Thorne look like an All-American last week. Combined with the continued incompetence of Mertz and the Badger passing attack, and you figured the more complete team would be able to pull out a win. Think again.
Purdue got steamrolled from the start. They trailed 21-0 after the 1st quarter, and 35-10 after the 3rd. Purdue ended up outgaining Wisconsin by 50 yards and possessed the ball for 10 more minutes thanks to a couple garbage-time drives, but Wisconsin was the better team on Saturday. And that’s not something anyone has been able to say a lot about Wisconsin this year.
The worst part wasn’t the 3.4 yards per carry Purdue averaged after seemingly rediscovering their run game over the past few weeks. The game script led them to abandon the run game relatively early.
The worst part wasn’t O’Connell’s 3 INTs, either. Sure, throwing a pick-six on your third play certainly doesn’t help your chances to win. But even if O’Connell didn’t throw any INTs, Purdue wasn’t winning this game. That’s because the actual worst part about this loss was…
Purdue’s pass defense. As mentioned before, Wisconsin has been void of anything resembling a threatening aerial attack all year. Even against a Spartan secondary that has struggled to defend the pass for three straight seasons, Mertz was unable to find much success. But Purdue somehow made Mertz look competent. He went 13-21 for 203 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions. That’s nearly 10 yards per attempt that Purdue gave up.
Brohm apologists can blame this weak performance on having to start the season with eight games in eight weeks. But Purdue showed up to this game uninspired, unmotivated, slow, and tired. As if they weren’t currently tied for 1st in their division, trying not to fall a game behind the team they have to visit in three weeks. A tight loss might have been forgivable. Traveling to Madison, no matter the year, is never an easy win. But being thoroughly outplayed, out-coached, and out-hustled by a team who’s best win was against Northwestern is anything but forgivable. Not when the stakes are this high.
Purdue finally gets their bye week before finishing with Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana. They could very well win out, finish 9-3, and punch their ticket to Indianapolis for their very first time. But what have we seen from this team that should make us believe they are capable of that? Purdue is about to face the best two defenses they’ve seen all year when they come out of the bye week. They will enter those games with virtually no momentum in their favor.
With Illinois still needing to play Michigan, it felt like Purdue had one more game they could afford to drop and still make it to Indy (assuming they can knock off the Illini later this year). And to waste that one game on a team like Wisconsin while Iowa and your bitter rival Indiana (who plays Purdue tight every year no matter what their records are) still lay ahead seems like the nail in the coffin for Purdue’s Big Ten title hopes.
I said this about Minnesota last week. If Purdue can’t get it done this season, with this senior class, in this muddied Big Ten West, then when will they ever be able to? It felt like Jeff Brohm was starting to build something here. But after six seasons, the most Brohm might have to show for it is last year’s Music City Bowl victory.
2) The Silver Bullets are officially back
For three of the past four seasons, Ohio State’s defense has been among the conference’s worst – a rare occurrence for the usually proud “Silver Bullet” defense. An overhaul of the defensive staff led by Jim Knowles was sure to bring that side of the ball to at least acceptable standards. But the turnaround has superseded what even the most optimistic Buckeye fans had in mind.
The Ohio State defense gave up only three points and 158 total yards at 2.7 yards per play on Saturday. They had five sacks, 10 TFLs, and forced six turnovers. They allowed Iowa to go just 1-13 on 3rd down and 1-4 on 4th down. It was sheer and utter dominance.
Of course, others will yell about how this was against Iowa – admittedly among the worst offenses in all of division 1. They are dead last in total offense and 4th-to-last in scoring defense. Aside from the fact that Spencer Petras managed to go 21-31 for 246 yards, a TD, and no turnovers against Michigan, this is a team Ohio State should have dominated.
The point is they did dominate them though. And they have been dominating the opposition all season long. Ohio State is 2nd nationally in total defense, 6th in yards per play, 3rd in pass defense, 8th in rush defense, and 5th in scoring defense. They are unequivocally among the nation’s elite on defense.
One must also consider that Ohio State has been beating teams up so bad, that starters are often pulled by the 4th quarter. Their backups gave up long touchdown drives against Toledo, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. Ohio State’s defensive numbers could really be even better.
Ohio State’s defense – and the team as a whole – still have yet to be really tested. This weekend against Penn State, in a few weeks against Maryland, and the finale against Michigan will provide great tests for how good this defense really is. But thus far, the Buckeyes have done something they have been unable to over much of the past four seasons (particularly on defense): dominate.
3) Although still in need of a QB, Rutgers salvaged their season
I’ve mentioned before how Rutgers’ need for a solution at quarterback is dire at this point. Although that has not changed, Rutgers picked up their first home Big Ten win in five years in spite of Noah Vedral. In doing so, Schiano and company may have salvaged a lost season.
No one expected anything out of Rutgers this year. But if you asked Rutgers, they were looking to reach the six-win threshold and get to a bowl game for the second consecutive year. Despite a 3-0 start in the non-conference highlighted by a comeback win at BC, their season appeared to be spiraling.
Shuffling around quarterbacks, Rutgers threw away their primetime match against Nebraska at home and fell to 3-3. Entering the bye, it was clear this was a must-win game for Rutgers’ bowl hopes. But then Indiana returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and jumped out to a 14-0 lead after the 1st quarter. All hope seemed lost.
But Rutgers didn’t flinch, outgaining Indiana 274-159 over the final three quarters. And after taking the lead with under a minute left in the 3rd quarter, Rutgers didn’t squander it by throwing the ball unnecessarily like they did against Nebraska. They instead ran the ball and relied on their strong defense to bring home the win.
The Scarlet Knights had the perseverance and grit that they lacked in losses to Iowa and Nebraska. Now sitting at 4-3 with five games left to go, Rutgers has a shot to get to a bowl game. You can expect them to take a loss against Michigan and Penn State. But with road trips to Minnesota, Michigan State, and Maryland left to go, winning two out of three seems possible.
If they control the clock with their run game, don’t turn the ball over, rely on that strong defense to make plays, and get just a couple big pass plays, Rutgers can definitely hang with all three of those teams. They will be significantly out-manned at quarterback when they play Michigan State and Maryland, which will make those games much tougher wins. Someone has to make a play in the 4th quarter for Rutgers to pull those out, and it’s not likely to be Evan Simon or Noah Vedral.
Nonetheless, Rutgers sits at about .500 over half way through the season. They must win two of their next five to get to bowl eligibility. If you ask any Rutgers fan, this is all they could have hoped for.
4) What the hell is this Wisconsin team?
Someone try to explain this Badger team to me. They lose to Washington State at home despite outgaining them by 148 yards and possessing the ball for 16 more minutes. But they outscore their other two non-conference opponents by a combined score of 104-7.
Then they lose by a combined 55 points to Ohio State and Illinois and fire their long-time head coach in favor of the highly-touted Jim Leonhard. In his first game as coach, they dominate Northwestern 42-7 and look like they are trending upwards.
But the following week, they are outgained by over 100 yards by Michigan State and lose in 2OT (although they were lucky to force OT to begin with). That snapped a 4-game lose streak for Michigan State – four games in which the Spartans never led.
And just when you think you have a read on this Wisconsin team (non-existent passing attack, below-average offensive line, and a defense that doesn’t hold a candle to those Badger defenses from recent history), they go out and dominate Purdue. What gives?? Well, there’s two factors here.
First, I think this Wisconsin team is void of the talent they usually have. It was clear entering the season that Graham Mertz was not a very good QB. Not even Jack Coan-level. But his poor play also falls on the shoulders of the receivers that have failed to step up in place of Jake Ferguson, Kendric Pryor, and Danny Davis (who combined for 110 receptions and 1,344 yards last year).
Meanwhile, this offensive line has struggled throughout the year and hasn’t been able to dominate even their weakest competition. Braelon Allen, although hard to tackle and dangerous in the open field, does not seem to have the ability to make guys miss in tight spaces like he needs to with this line. On top of that, he’s a virtual non-factor in the pass game.
On the defensive side, Wisconsin had a lot to replace in the front-seven. The overwhelming assumption was that they’d be able to reload because, well, they do just about every single year. But so far this year, Wisconsin ranks 7th or worse in the Big Ten in total defense, yards per play, pass defense, run defense, scoring defense, and turnovers forced.
If you take out the dominant offensive line, NFL-prototype running back, ferocious defense, and efficient (if not unspectacular) passing game, what is Wisconsin? Considering they are a developmental program built along the offensive and defensive lines rather than built on speed, the answer is probably a below .500 football team. Yet, they sit at 4-4 with four winnable games ahead of them. That brings me to the second factor here…
Jim Leonhard. Wisconsin’s best two wins of the season have come on his watch. Although the MSU loss was tough, maybe we can chalk that up to a road trip against an evenly-matched team that just needed the win more than Wisconsin did.
It’s clear this team is rallying around Leonhard, as they have played with more energy in these three games than they seemed to have in the five previous games with Paul Chryst. Mertz has thrown nine TDs to just one INT in these three games as opposed to eight TDs to five INTs in the first five games.
Although their Big Ten title hopes seem shot with three conference losses and the head-to-head loss to division-leader Illinois, a respectable 8-4 season is still on the table. And I credit that all to Jim Leonhard, because it is clear this team does not have the talent of year’s past. Nonetheless, their sporadic play makes it incredibly difficult to determine how this final stretch will go.
5) Roman Hemby’s emergence makes Maryland a threat to OSU, PSU
It’s rare that a one-possession win over Big Ten bottom-feeder Northwestern can be deemed “impressive.” But without star QB Taulia Tagovailoa available, Maryland knew that in order to win they were going to have to do something they’ve had trouble with for the majority of the year: run the ball. And they did just that, led by running back Roman Hemby.
Hemby finished the day with 179 yards and 3 TDs on 7.5 yards per carry. His 75-yard TD run with just over three minutes left in the game put the Terps up seven and secured their win. Over the past two weeks, Hemby is averaging 143 yards per game on seven yards per carry.
Maryland gets a bye this week, and the hope is that Taulia is fully healthy entering their final four-game stretch – at Wisconsin, at Penn State, vs Ohio State, vs Rutgers. They only have to finish 2-2 in order to secure the best season they’ve had since 2010. But if Hemby is able to maintain this performance, Maryland will be a legitimate threat to Penn State and Ohio State.
The Terps’ deep talent at receiver has been well-documented with guys like Corey Dyches, Rakim Jarrett, Jacob Copelad, Dontay Demus, and more. There was a reason they nearly upset Michigan at the Big House earlier this year despite rushing for just 128 yards on less than four yards per carry. Maryland is able to stretch the field both vertically ad sideline-to-sideline.
If Roman Hemby can continue to find some creases along this offensive line and make defenses respect the interior of the offensive line, Maryland will be nearly impossible to defend. Taulia’s health seems like a big question mark per usual, but he has the ability to create some chaos in the Big Ten.
Maryland gets Penn State in a lull of their schedule. They also get Ohio State the week before what everyone expects to be an undefeated showdown against Michigan. If either team overlooks this talented Maryland team, they could find themselves in deep trouble.