Last Week: 3-2 Overall: 20-10
Hey, I’ll take a winning record any day of the week. My biggest loss was easily Purdue +2.5 against Wisconsin. I’ve already written about how disappointed I am in that team after the lack of energy and discipline they played with. My other loss came in the Maryland Northwestern game, as my under pick came up just four points shy.
But Rutgers managed to cover against Indiana, while Penn State and Ohio State each covered their spreads by a wide margin.
With five more Big Ten games coming up this Saturday, I’m more confident in this batch of picks than any I’ve had in a few weeks.
1) Ohio State at Penn State (U61)
The line for the biggest Big Ten game of the weekend is currently sitting at -15.5 in favor of the Buckeyes. Given the recent history between these teams, that’s just a little too high for me to bite. Not matter the talent disparity between these rivals in any given year, Penn State always seems to play Ohio State close. Since 2016, the largest margin of victory has been 13 points, with the average score being 31-26 in favor of the Buckeyes.
Sure, Ohio State is special this year. And Penn State’s flaws were on display in their game against Michigan earlier this year. But you have to remember this game is being played at Happy Valley. This is Ohio State’s second road game of the season, with the first being at Michigan State – a game where fans didn’t quite show out, as they knew the kind of beatdown that awaited them. Not only that, but the last time Ohio State played at Penn State was in 2020 (with almost no fans in the stadium). Virtually no one on this OSU team knows what it is like to play at Penn State.
Penn State is also the most complete team Ohio State has played to date. Their secondary is among the country’s best, led by potential first round picks Ji’Ayir Brown and Joey Porter. Although their front-seven struggled against a dominant Michigan offensive line, I chalk that up to Penn State having a bad day rather than them being that bad. They played much better last week against one of the country’s best running backs in Mo Ibrahim, holding him to under four yards per carry.
Penn State also has the receivers to challenge Ohio State’s defensive weak spot – their cornerbacks. Covering Parker Washington, Mitchell Tinsley, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and company will be Ohio State’s biggest challenge to date.
Nonetheless, Ohio State is still more talented than Penn State at every position group outside of cornerback. I think OSU wins by somewhere between 13-17 points, making that 15.5 line anything but appealing.
Instead, the under seems like a sure-fire hit. The environment and fierce secondary of Penn State will make it difficult for OSU to rack up points. Penn State’s offense will not be handing Ohio State the ball like Iowa did last weekend, either. Additionally, this is not a game where Ohio State will be looking for style points. They are going into Happy Valley looking for a win, no matter how it comes. That means if/when the Buckeyes find themselves up by two possessions in the 4th quarter, they are likely to run the ball and control the clock.
On the flip side, Ohio State’s defense is still among the nation’s best despite the challenging matchup against these receivers. Sean Clifford can be a difficult quarterback to play when he’s in rhythm, especially given his mobility. But this PSU offensive line has too many holes to stop this Buckeye front. I don’t think Penn State will be able to effectively run the ball, putting the game on Clifford’s right arm. While he’ll be able to make a few big plays, getting touchdowns instead of field goals in the redzone will be an enormous challenge.
I see this game finishing in the 30-17, 34-20, 35-23 range. Only twice in this series history has the point total gone above 61. Both of those occurrences were blowouts where the wining team put up 63. With a couple good defenses playing in a raucous environment, the under seems like a lock.
2) Michigan State (+23) at Michigan
On paper, Michigan should wipe the floor with their in-state rival. However, weird things have happened in this rivalry over the years. Since Mike Hart’s “little brother” comments after the 2007 game, Michigan is just 4-10 against Michigan State. Only one of those wins came by more than 14 points – a 44-10 shellacking in 2019. Given Michigan State’s slow start to the year, the public seems to think that’s the kind of result we will see on Saturday.
However, Mel Tucker is 2-0 against Michigan. They are also coming off their best game of the season – a 2OT win over Wisconsin. In that game, Payton Thorne seemed to rediscover his connection with stud receiver Jayden Reed. Reed and Keon Coleman make up a dynamic receiving duo – one that can exploit a vulnerable Michigan secondary. Even though Michigan’s defensive front is nearly as good as last year, Michigan State is used to operating without much of a run game.
Following their win over Wisconsin and fresh off of a bye week, Michigan State should be playing with more confidence than they have all year. They are likely entering the game with a “nothing to lose” mentality – a scary proposition for a Michigan team that has everything to lose.
Michigan is going to rely on their run game like they have all year. They are not going to risk giving MSU a short field by throwing the ball 30+ times. Because of that, I have a hard time seeing Michigan be able to build more than a 21 point lead.
Listen, the Wolverines are not losing this game. They simply have way more talent than Michigan State along the offensive and defensive lines. But Michigan State appears to be trending in a positive direction. I think they put together their best game of the year and keep the game close at least until the second half. Michigan will pull away behind their dominant run game, but a 24-point win seems high.
3) Rutgers (+14) at Minnesota
Minnesota is in the middle of a three-game losing streak in which they’ve averaged just 13.7 point per game. Starting QB Tanner Morgan’s status for this game is also in question after suffering a concussion against Illinois – an injury that held him out last week against Penn State. Minnesota got absolutely obliterated in that game. In fact, they’ve been beaten soundly in each of their past three games.
I think I may have given too much credit to Minnesota for their 4-0 start against weak competition and believed that same team would reappear at some point. The fact of the matter is this team is just not very good, especially along the offensive and defensive lines. Following a 28-point beatdown on national television, Minnesota will be looking to clean up their play and get things right. Rutgers is a tough opponent to do that against.
Rutgers is sitting at 4-3 and knows they need to get two more wins in order to reach their goal of bowl eligibility. With two of their remaining games against Penn State and Michigan, Schiano and Rutgers know this game against Minnesota is one of few opportunities they have left for a win. Because of that, you know Rutgers is going to come out and play as hard as they have all year.
This Rutgers defense really deserves more national recognition for what they’ve been able to accomplish. They are top-10 nationally in total defense, rush defense, and yards per carry allowed. Although their secondary has given up some big plays throughout the year, they were able to hold CJ Stroud to a very modest day (13-22, 154 yards, 2 TDs, INT). Minnesota’s offense has been on the struggle bus for some time, and I don’t see them being able to right the ship against a strong Rutgers D.
I’d pick Rutgers to pull off the upset if it weren’t for the ineptitude at quarterback. I’ve written about this plenty of times before, but their current QB room just does not cut it. At the end of the day, they’ll need to make a big play in the 4th quarter to come out of Minnesota with a win. I just don’t have faith that this offense will be able to do that.
However, their defense is plenty good enough to keep this a tight game. Minnesota should win, but a win by more than two touchdowns for a team that hasn’t even averaged that many points in their past three games (against defenses comparable to Rutgers) seems ridiculous. Rutgers should cover that 14-point spread.
4) Illinois at Nebraska (+7.5)
This matchup screams trap game for Illinois. Nebraska is 2-1 in their last three games, with their one loss coming by six points on the road against Purdue. Both teams are coming off of their bye week, but the nation-leading Illinois defense has yet to be tested with an offense like Nebraska.
Even though Nebraska still has it’s issues, they have improved under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. Anthony Grant is 5th in the Big Ten in rushing, Trey Palmer is 2nd in the Big Ten in receiving, and Casey Thompson is top five in the Big Ten in passing yards, yards per attempt, and total touchdowns. The Huskers have an issue with turnovers, but are still the most talented and electric offense Illinois has played to date. By far.
Illinois’ defense is great. Don’t get me wrong. But I feel like leading the nation in total and scoring defense has a lot to do with the level of competition they’ve faced. Not a single team on their schedule has had a weapon like Trey Palmer that can stretch the field vertically. Illinois has also not had to deal with a quarterback who has mobility like Casey Thompson. The infrastructure Beliema has instituted on this defense is great, but cannot completely make up for their lack of elite athleticism in the back end. Nebraska just has speed this Illinois team hasn’t faced yet.
Nebraska’s defense is still bad, though. They gave up over 600 yards the last time they played – the second time someone went over 600 this year, and the fourth time someone went for over 500 yards. This is still a one-dimensional offensive attack from Illinois. Tommy DeVito is improving seemingly every week and is coming off of his best performance to date against Minnesota. But with limited receiving weapons outside of Isaiah Williams, this offense will still only go as far as Chase Brown can take them.
That is another concern of mine about Illinois. I absolutely love Chase Brown. I’ve written about how it’s a travesty that he is outperforming Blake Corum but is getting virtually no Heisman hype. He is a phenomenal player and means more to his team than almost any other player in the country. But how many more games can he shoulder a 40+ touch workload?
There is not much of a talent disparity between these teams. All credit in the world to what Brett Bielema has been able to accomplish in his second year with the team. But I don’t think anyone would argue that Illinois has performed above it’s talent level so far this year. They have taken care of turnovers and penalties in every game this year except for one – their week 2 loss against Indiana.
I just feel it in my bones that this is a trap game for Illinois, and one that will be tight throughout. Illinois may not be able to absolutely dominate the opposing offense like they have in essentially every game this year. Meanwhile, their offense seems due for some penalties or turnovers. Or maybe even a down game from the great Chase Brown.
Call it a gut instinct, but Nebraska is keeping this game to one possession.
5) Northwestern at Iowa (U37.5)
Aaaaah, Iowa unders. How I love you. Like the Iowa unders I have cashed in on in the past, this one is pretty simple.
Northwestern has a good shot at getting shutout this weekend. Iowa’s defense continues to show up and show out week in and week out. Although Ryan Hilinski, Evan Hull, and Malik Washington showed some early-season promise for the Wildcats, this team continues to fall flat on its face every week. They were able to put up 24 points last week (the most they’ve had since their opener against Nebraska), but there is a far gap between the Terp and Hawkeye defense.
Iowa’s offense, meanwhile, is still the same mess. Northwestern’s defense has been similarly horrible, but if Iowa can’t score on South Dakota State then who in the world can they score on? In all honesty, Iowa should just adopt the post-war offense from when games were watched in black and white. Run the ball up the middle three times. No first down? Punt.
Iowa’s defense is almost certain to get a defensive score. But even including that, there will be a maximum of four touchdowns in this game. And even that is something I’m having a hard time picturing.
Northwestern just is not going to score more than 10 points against Iowa. And Iowa’s season high for points in 27. Take the under.