Previewing the 2023-24 Penn State Basketball Season
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by Jordan Beckley
One Door Closes…
The shortlived era of Micah Shrewsberry in Happy Valley is over.
The Hoosier native Shrewsberry left Penn State for the Notre Dame job after a whirlwind end of the season that saw them win 9 of their last 12, nearly winning the Big Ten championship, making the tournament, and even beating Texas A&M in the first round.
The Shrewsberry Era swiftly ended before it ever really started. Now, the door is open for the Mike Rhoades era.
Unlike Shrewsberry before him, Rhoades isn’t swooping into the Penn State job on the back of a hotstreak. Instead, Coach Rhoades has had a steady stream of success everywhere he has been.
If you are unfamiliar with the former VCU head coach Mike Rhoades, check out this paragraph from Penn State’s bio about him:
“Rhoades comes to Penn State following a six-year stint as the head coach at VCU in which he guided the Rams to three NCAA Tournament appearances, a 129-60 overall record and 72-32 Atlantic 10 Conference record. He is the fourth-winningest coach in VCU history. Rhoades developed a pair of Atlantic 10 Players of the Year and 13 all-conference selections throughout his six years in Richmond. On the recruiting trail, Rhoades has signed the Atlantic 10’s top-ranked recruiting class in three of the past four years. In his time as an assistant and head coach at VCU, he was responsible for signing eight of the top nine all-time Ram recruits per 247Sports.”
via Penn State Sports Website
Pretty impressive.
Rhoades checks a lot of boxes in that little blurb. Capable recruiter, develops talent for the next level, several postseason appearances, consistent winner. Check, check, check, check.
Rhoades has been a recruiter and a winner in a close proximity to the state of Pennsylvania. Nittany Lions fans hope that Coach Rhoades can build that same culture to the Big Ten and Happy Valley. The often maligned basketball program enjoyed real success last season and it seems like the athletic department is committed to try and repeat it.
Penn State found a distinct style in two seasons under Micah Shrewsberry. Can they find one under Mike Rhoades? What does that look like?
The most important aspect of this season for Penn State won’t be the wins and losses but more a focus on what is Mike Rhoades’ plan and are the players buying into that plan?
Two seasons ago we glimpsed Shrewsberry’s plan and the buy-in during their Big Ten Tournament run. We saw it carried to fruition with a Big Ten Title appearance and a victory in March Madness to boot.
What will we see from Coach Rhoades and his first Penn State roster?
Roster Breakdown
Nobody had a bigger roster transformation this offseason than Penn State. Don’t be disappointed that you have to constantly figure out who each player is when watching them this season. The Nittany Lions have ten new players so let’s dive in.
Guards: Ace Baldwin, Kanye Clary, RayQuawndis Mitchell, D’Marco Dunn, Jameel Brown, Bragi Gudmundsson
Ace Baldwin was a 12.7 ppg and 5.8 apg All A-10 performer under Rhoades at VCU. Baldwin and sophomore Kanye Clary appear to be the lead guards based on the Nittany Lions’ foreign tour. Clary was a standout on the tour and seems to be primed for a breakout season.
Mitchell is a 17 ppg scorer from the Summit League. Will his skills work in the Big Ten? D’Marco Dunn is 1 of 2 North Carolina transfers. The former 4-star recruit was buried behind RJ Davis and Caleb Love and offers some real upside in a larger role for the Nittany Lions.
Jameel Brown is one of the few returning players from last year. Brown was limited last year behind all the seniors. It seems Clary has beaten him out for the heavier minutes this season of the returning guards.
Gudmundsson is the only freshman on the roster. The international prospect has some fun film, but it is fair to expect him to be a limited bench player until proven otherwise.
Wings: Nick Kern, Puff Johnson, Leo O’Boyle
Penn state has a lot of guys who are more of 4s but some of them will have to play the 3 next to the two lead guards.
Nick Kern popped in the foreign tour averaging over 16 points a game. He is the other player leaving VCU for Penn State with Coach Rhoades and Baldwin. Kern seems poised to take a leap in his junior season.
Puff Johnson is a senior transfer who you probably know from his 6th man role on the Final Four UNC team two years ago. His Tar Heel career never took off like it was supposed to and now the former 4-star Pennsylvania native is returning home. He will likely play a good amount at both the 3 or the 4.
Leo O’Boyle is another Pennsylvania product who transferred in for a homecoming. The former four year player at Lafayette is 6’6” red haired sharpshooter with 196 career three pointers. He will earn minutes with his shooting ability spacing the floor for others.
Bigs: Qudus Wahab, Favour Aire, Demetrius Lilley, Zach Hicks
You might recognize Wahab from back when he started for Maryland. The former Terp transferred back to Georgetown after Mark Turgeon resigned and now is back in the Big Ten after Patrick Ewing was fired. Wahab is a proven starting big, but is not a great one. He isn’t going to score a ton or block much, but Wahab is a good rebounder and that will be needed desperately.
The other two potential centers are dart throws. Demetrius Lilley is the last remaining returning player who was beaten out for the center job by Kebba Njie last season as a freshman. Favour Aire was not the favored big man in Miami last year and transferred to Happy Valley to compete for minutes. One of them will win the backup minutes. How productive they will be in those minutes is anyone’s guess.
Finally, Zach Hicks is a stretch 4 who launches threes (7 a game last year!) and rebounds well. The Temple transfer will compete with Puff Johnson for the minutes at PF and depending on the game Rhoades may fluctuate on who closes.
It is a lot to take in. There is so much change up and down the roster. Every Penn State fan will have to wait to watch some games to get a feeling for this team. The good news? So will every coach in the Big Ten.
Penn State is one of the biggest mystery teams in the Big Ten. The seismic roster change will leave a big gap in film and experience for opponents. However, it also comes at the cost of chemistry and experience together.
Penn State is being unilaterally picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten.
The problem is that their roster demands respect. Between established lower level guys like Baldwin and Mitchell graduating to a power conference, leaps from guys like Kern and Clary, and expanded roles for blue chip talent like Johnson and Dunn, you can see a path to a successful Big Ten team.
Odds are that the season isn’t great, but with the blend of experience and upside Rhoades brought in, don’t be totally shocked if the Nittany Lions are fighting for a tournament spot this season.
What is the Rhoad Map?
My biggest advice for fans of teams with new head coaches is to just see what the program looks like under the new leader.
Coaches like Dennis Gates at Mizzou and Jerome Tang at K-State have given every fan base unfair expectations for rebuilds.
Just because it can be done in a season with the transfer portal, doesn’t mean it needs to be or should be done that way.
Rhoades was an active participant in the transfer portal this offseason out of necessity. Just because one coach made the tourney right away leaning on the portal doesn’t mean yours will. For every Jerome Tang you also have a Kenny Payne.
Last year’s preview for Maryland and year 1 of Kevin Willard focused on the same ideas that PSU fans should take for Coach Rhoades.
What does the offense look like under Rhoades? How is it the same and how is it different coming to the Big Ten compared to his last job? Does his system manufacture opportunities for a guy to be an All-Big Ten performer?
How about defense? What does he do against bigs like Zach Edey? Does he get creative? How does he hide two small guards in Kanye Clary and Ace Baldwin if they are playing together? Is there any zone?
What kind of lineups does Coach Rhoades like? Is he a two guard or three guard lineup kind of coach? Does he ever go small with a bunch of forwards and no true center? How many threes a game are they taking as a team and what positions are taking them?
With a new coach you need to focus on the shifting of the gameplan. How does Mike Rhoades define Penn State basketball?
Notice everything. How is recruiting doing off the court? Who is he recruiting? How many minutes are older guys getting vs. guys that will be returning next year? How many changes are being made in between games?
Year one wasn’t a major success under Coach Shrewsberry. Yet, you got to see his formula. Penn State fans got to see him figure out the sets that he liked, the lineups he liked, the schemes that were forming. The fans saw Shrewsberry finetune everything and then they got to enjoy the five-out three point barrage that fueled a tournament run at the end of last season.
Penn State fans should be excited. Rhoades is a proven winner. He has history in the Pennsylvania area and seems committed to reaping the benefits of the area specifically targeting several local kids from the portal like he did.
Furthermore, the school is committed to Coach Rhoades. Penn State is paying him $3.4 million annually which puts him in the same realm as guys like Matt Painter and Chris Holtmann and above Juwan Howard.
Coach Rhoades is their guy. Now, it’s time for Penn State fans to sit back and find out what that will look like.