The Hawkeyes are having a Changing of the Guard - Hard-Hitting Big Ten Coverage

Previewing the 2023-24 Iowa Basketball Season

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by Jordan Beckley

Out with the Old

Iowa is having a changing of the guard.

After a great string of success that has seen the Hawkeyes finish in the Top 5 four straight years, Iowa is officially turning the page. (By the way, they’ve also finished top 6 in six of the past seven seasons.)

The roster and players that McCaffery has built his string of success off of is almost entirely gone now.

National Player of the Year Luka Garza isn’t the center of the offense anymore. His son Connor McCaffery and fellow 6-year vet Jordan Bohannon are no longer the steadying leaders in the locker room or court.

The biggest surprises of the past half decade were the Murray brothers who shockingly were both 1st round NBA draft picks despite being north of the 200s in recruiting rankings. Yeah, Keegan and Kris both made the leap out of Iowa City too.

Joe Wieskamp, Joe Toussaint, Filip Rebraca, I mean everybody has moved on. Yes, I know Tony Perkins is still there. Still, for this exercise we are going to focus on the fact that after having NBA talent in Iowa City for 5 or so years, Fran McCaffery finally won’t have any NBA players.

Iowa has had supercharged offenses in this stretch of success consistently finishing at the top in scoring and efficiency. How much of that has been the professional talent vs the coach?

I can barely ask that question seriously.

Coach McCaffery has finely crafted the Hawkeye offense and creates opportunities to run, finds ways to get open looks, drills in fundamental scoring skills, basically to score and score a lot. It has been Coach McCaffery’s handiwork regardless of who leads the team in scoring.

A more fair question is without a Murray brother (or two) and with no Luka Garza level player, how many games can Iowa win with their middling defense?

I wondered in last year’s preview if Iowa could put together a solid defense. The Hawkeyes finished as the 168th defense according to KenPom.com so obviously that didn’t happen.

An optimist would say maybe that will be different as new additions Ben Krikke, Even Brauns and Owen Freeman might bring at least a whiff of rim protection that last years team did not have. A realistic view is to expect an average overall defense and a bad one for a team as good as they are.

Instead of wondering if Iowa can become good defensively, let’s focus on the new players coming into the program. Coach McCaffery has built his success on offense and player development. So, who is the next great Hawkeye?

Roster Breakdown

Guards: Tony Perkins, Dasonte Bowen, Josh Dix, Brock Harding

The Iowa backcourt is full of unrealized potential with a potential steadying hand of Tony Perkins.

Perkins enters his senior season after starting every game his junior season. He is one of the most obvious breakout candidates in the conference. With Kris Murray and Filip Rebraca gone, Perkins will be asked to create more than he did last season when he averaged 12 ppg and 2.8 apg. However, I would guess that the best version of Iowa won’t have him being the leading scorer.

Part of the mystery of Iowa this season will come from the unproven guards. Dasonte Bowen and Josh Dix are sophomores who will fill the void of Ahron Ulis and Connor McCaffery. Both Bowen and Dix had a good foreign tour scoring in double figures a couple of times. Dix’s shooting could separate him and earn him minutes next to some of the playmaking wings. Can Bowen develop into a lead distributor for the Hawkeyes?

Finally, true freshman Brock Harding is a walking spark plug. Go watch this young gunner’s highlights. He is so entertaining and has all the confidence in the world. Harding is a danger to hit a three from anywhere at anytime releasing his shot quicker than a cheetah. Pair that with his nimble handle and 360 degree passing vision and you have a player Iowa fans are going to fall in love with. The obvious question with him is also what makes him so endearing; his size. Can he survive on a court with college players with how small he is?

Wings: Payton Sandfort, Patrick McCaffery, Pryce Sandfort

You can make a case that the Hawkeyes have the best collection of the wings in the conference.

Payton Sandfort struggled as a starter last year and then popped when moved to the bench. Sandfort was a walking heat check last season. He had six twenty point games off of the bench. He also had 9 games with 5 points of less. This year it will be important that Payton is more consistent.

Patrick McCaffery’s breakout was supposed to happen last year. For a variety of reasons, that didn’t happen. Can it happen this year? The 6’9” Coach’s son enters his senior year with everything in front of him. McCaffery has all the tools to be an All-Big Ten level player. He will almost certainly start. Will it be at the 3 or the 4?

Payton’s younger brother Pryce joins the Hawkeyes this season. Pryce is the same kind of player as his brother, Patrick McCaffery and the Murray brothers. He has good size, good feel and can score on all three levels. Or at least he showed that in high school. How refined of a player will he be as a freshman? If the college game is a little fast for him he might just be a catch and shoot player as a freshman.

Bigs: Ben Krikke, Even Brauns, Owen Freeman, Ladji Dembele, Riley Mulvey

One of the biggest mystery position groups in the conference is the Iowa frontcourt.

Iowa brought in two transfers in Ben Krikke from Valparaiso and Even Brauns from Belmont. Krikke is 100% the starting center for this team. Krikke is a 6’9” grad transfer who averaged 19 and 6 at Valpo his senior season. He attempted 1.9 threes a game and shot 28%. Brauns hasn’t made a three in his career.

Is Coach McCaffery going to start two non-shooting bigs? Or will he lean on a smaller forward like his son Patrick at 4?

Another answer could be freshman Owen Freeman. Freeman is 6’10” freshman who played with Brock Harding at Moline last year. While he might not be a shooter he has really impressed this offseason and somebody at Iowa told Jon Rothstein that he might be a starter. Freeman might be the best rebounder and rim protector of the bunch. Expect him to get big minutes even if he doesn’t start.

I have no strong opinions on Ladji Dembele or Riley Mulvey. I don’t expect either to be big contributors this season.

Overall, Iowa’s roster might be one of the most slept on teams in the Big Ten. Now, a lot has to break right for that to be true. Personally, I’m optimistic with Iowa and just assume that Payton Sandfort and Patrick McCaffery are going to make leaps. Although, I thought the same last year and that didn’t happen.

You can repeat the breakthrough expectations about Josh Dix, Dasonte Bowen, Tony Perkins, and pick any of the freshmen. Regardless, Iowa is replacing a lot of production. Potential fill-ins are there and it is easy to say that they will step up, but unlikely that all of them do.

Preseason optimism could vastly mislead you with Iowa. Dismissing them prematurely could as well.

A changing of the guard can be a bad thing or sometimes it can surprise you with new superstars and a higher ceiling than predicted.

Next Era of Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes

Iowa has had a lot of goodbyes recently.

Saying goodbye to Jordan Bohannon, Connor McCaffery, and now both of the Murray brothers. This could be the last season for Patrick McCaffery depending on if he uses his extra Covid year. If so it would be the last year of a McCaffery playing for his dad. The youngest McCaffery son, Jack McCaffery, announced this summer that he won’t play for his Dad at Iowa.

The “Family Business” at Iowa won’t end since Pryce extends the Sandfort family another four years, and I’m sure Fran will find another set of brothers after that. However, this run of success has come with a McCaffery son playing for his father or Iowa fans adoptive sons in Jordan Bohannon and Luka Garza.

The highest moment was the Hawkeyes winning the Big Ten Championship over Purdue two seasons ago. It was their first Big Ten Tournament title and it came off a great tournament from Patrick and Connor McCaffery. It’s going to feel different as a fan, but I can’t imagine how different it will feel for Fran to not have his sons with him everyday like they have been.

Last season my preview for Purdue focused on who would be the next great Boilermaker. The simple premise being that Jaden Ivey had left and that Matt Painter always produces a great Big Ten player. Well, Zach Edey took the College Basketball world by storm and answered that question. This year, I wonder the same about Iowa.

With the void left from Kris Murray, who steps into his shoes? Who is the next feather in Coach McCaffery’s player development cap?

Is Perkins capable of an All-Big Ten kind of leap? Can Fran’s son Patrick fill in at the four the way that Kris and Keegan have the past two years? Will Payton Sandfort put it all together and do it night after night and be the best scorer in the conference?

Purdue fans take for granted Matt Painter’s immaculate streak of player development. Realistically even good coaches are more like Chris Holtmann where some players blossom and others crash, burn and transfer. Could we see McCaffery’s streak falter?

That might be jumping the gun. This season Iowa should be able to compete to get in the top 5 again. Patrick McCaffery, Payton Sandfort and Tony Perkins are as good of a three as any of that group jockeying below Michigan State and Purdue this season. For all we know by October next year, we could be talking about how Josh Dix or Dasonte Bowen are preseason All-Big Ten players or how Owen Freeman is one of the Big Ten’s best bigs or really any player.

The guard is changing in Carver Hawkeye Arena. The change begs so many questions that will go unanswered until the season happens. Iowa is the biggest wait and see team in the Big Ten. I will not be the one to pick against them.