In the month of October, The Floor Slap will be launching our College Basketball Preview. We will be previewing all 14 Big Ten Teams, making predictions, covering the biggest storylines across the country and more! Follow @thefloorslap to stay up to date on all our Basketball coverage before the season tips off on November 5th.
by Jordan Beckley
The College Basketball season is less than a week away and we are so excited for it to kickoff with reigning National Champs UConn taking on … Northern Arizona. Oh well at least Purdue plays… Samford.
Yes, the slate might be awful, but it is still College Basketball and it will only get better. The overreactions from Week 1 will be coming soon, however right now is the time for predictions. So, what better way to kickoff the CBB season than some increasingly bold predictions.
For this article, I’m going to try and cover the whole country not just the Big Ten. My official preseason Big Ten Ballot will come out later this week.
How about we predict who wins the SEC, NPOY, a date with destiny for two programs and a National Champion!
1. Memphis sweeps FAU and the American
Up first in my bold predictions is a trip down to the American conference.
We all remember Dusty May and FAU’s special run to the Final Four last season. Many people forget that it started with a close call against Memphis in the 8/9 matchup. The Tigers and Owls followed up the biggest upset ever in FDU over Purdue with a pretty good game themselves in Columbus. A timeout not given to Memphis costed Coach Penny the game as the Tigers lost 65-66 on a last second bucket.
The general public might not remember it, but Penny and the rest of Memphis do. With the departure of several conference members (Houston, UCF, Cincy) and the addition of Florida Atlantic to the American, it seems we have a two team race for the conference and a real spark for a potential rivalry.
Florida Atlantic brings most of their team back from a 35-4 overall team. The Owls are a preseason Top 10 team, but are they due for a letdown? FAU reportedly lost to UNC in Boca Raton by double digits in a secret scrimmage. Ironically, could the Owls be like the Tarheels last year and be a disappointment after being a top preseason pick coming off a Final Four? The Owls followed the UNC loss up with another secret scrimmage loss to UCF so you tell me.
Memphis meanwhile will be one of the oldest teams in the NCAA again with 12 upperclassmen and 7 of them playing in their 4th+ year of CBB. Coach Hardaway brings in almost double digit transfers including top portal prizes Jordan Brown from Louisiana and Jahvon Quinerly of Alabama. If it all meshes together, Memphis could be really good.
I like the revenge narrative here for the Tigers and I think they could sweep FAU and run away with the American this year with Houston no longer in their way.
2. Tennessee wins the SEC
I thought this was a bolder prediction when I first did a draft of all my picks. Then I checked the SEC odds on Draftkings. Tennessee is actually the slight favorite at +300 to win the conference. Close behind the Vols are Kentucky (+400) and Texas A&M (+450).
I had assumed that the favorites would be one of Arkansas, Alabama or Kentucky. I thought people were lower on Tennessee. I believed the public would see Julian Phillips going pro, Olivier Nkamouah and BJ Edwards transferring, Tyreke Key and Uros Plavsic graduating, and Zakai Zeigler’s recovery carrying into the season would scare people away.
Perhaps people have caught on that Tennessee has consistently been great under Rick Barnes. Barnes has quietly been one of the better recruiters in the country and the Vols have been a regular season win machine because of it.
The absence of last year’s key guys won’t matter. Players ready to make leaps like Jahmai Mashack, Jonas Aidoo, and Tobe Awaka will step up to bigger rolls. Talented freshmen like JP Estrella, Cade Phillips and Cameron Carr could earn minutes. Plus Tennessee has become a player in the portal bringing in ready made impact guys in Dalton Knecht and Jordan Gainey.
Over the weekend, the Vols went into East Lansing and beat preseason no.4 Michigan State. Knecht and Gainey had awesome games with Knecht scoring 28 points in the absence of both Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi. If they can win on the road against a top 10 team without their starting backcourt maybe I should make this prediction bolder.
The rest of the SEC isn’t unstoppable either. Kentucky is extremely young this season. Alabama replaces a lot from last year’s number one overall team. Texas A&M might be a nicer dark horse than regular season team. Arkansas is an entirely new team that might struggle with chemistry. Right there in the middle of it is Tennessee who come time for conference play should have a healthy Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi running the show again.
Coach Barnes has only won the SEC once at Tennessee back in 2017-18. This year I think he gets his 2nd SEC title. Now, a Final Four appearance for Coach Barnes is a separate bold prediction that I won’t be making.
3. Marquette wins the Big East again, but doesn’t make the Final Four
Originally this prediction was higher in the bold predictions draft. When I ran this article by a friend he said that this wasn’t that bold and it should be moved down. Still, I think this is a bold prediction.
The Big East was awesome last year. Sean Miller had Xavier as one of the 15 best teams all year. Creighton was in and out of the Top 10 most of the season. Bryce Hopkins and Providence were a tough team to beat. Oh yeah, the Big East was so tough that the eventual National Champion UConn lost 6 of 8 conference games. Through all of it Marquette, a team picked to finish near the bottom, won the league by two games and then won the conference tourney beating UConn in the process.
Last year’s surprise of Marquette and Shaka Smart was awesome. A team with 150-1 championship odds won one of the toughest conferences and earned a no. 2 seed in March Madness. The Golden Eagles only really lose Olivier Maxence-Prosper from their core rotation while bringing back Big East POY Tyler Kolek.
Marquette should be awesome again and the books think so too. Shaka Smart’s team are markedly better at 18-1 title odds and at +600 to make the Final Four have the 7th best odds in CBB to do so. The Golden Eagles are slight favorites at +200 over UConn (+280) and Creighton (+300). No other conference has three teams at +300 or lower to win it. It should be an ultra competitive conference once again and while the books and I think Marquette will win it, they believe more in UConn at +500 to make the Final Four.
For now, I think the post-VCU March Madness narrative will continue for Coach Smart. However, I believe that Marquette will be best prepared to accomplish the gauntlet of Big East play more so than Sean Miller, Bryce Hopkins, or reloaded Creighton and UConn.
4. Houston wins the Big 12 in their first season in it
Now we are starting to get bold!
The Big 12 has been owned by Bill Self and Kansas. The preseason number one team has won (at least a share of) 18 of the last 19 Big 12 regular season championships. The Jayhawks are favored to do so again at +200 while the Cougars are right there at +350.
Houston will look different this year. Jarace Walker and Marcus Sasser are in the league now. Tramon Mark is winning games for Arkansas. Still, Kelvin Sampson’s squad has plenty of talent to try to win the Big 12 this year.
Jamal Shead will step up into a leading role. Two transfers in Baylor’s LJ Cryer and Temple’s Damian Dunn figure to be studs in the backcourt as well. For this prediction to work out, at least a couple of younger players like Terrence Arceneaux, Cedric Lath, Joseph Tugler, Jacob McFarland and Emanuel Sharp will need to take a major step up. Coach Sampson has proven in his time that he develops talent within.
It will be a big question to see what the Cougars are made of and if they can handle playing around 20 games against Big 12 opponents from January to March. Betting against Kansas has almost never paid off, but I am not as convinced about the core of Kevin McCullar, DaJuan Harris and KJ Adams. I even think that the transfers of Nic Timberlake and Hunter Dickinson might interrupt the chemistry those three share. Their exhibition loss to Illinois confirms some of those suspicions.
Houston has questions but so does Baylor, Texas and Kansas. People assume it will all go right for the Jayhawks. This prediction hinges on the questions being better answered by Houston and Sampson.
5. Duke doesn’t win the ACC but makes the Final Four
See this one was supposed to come right after the Marquette prediction as it is a perfect uno reverse card prediction.
Everybody likes Duke this year. It’s hard not to. This year the Blue Devils have their normal top of the line recruiting class, but also are running it back with Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, Mark Mitchell and Jeremy Roach. Coach Scheyer started to figure it out near the end of last year as he guided them to an ACC Tournament Championship before losing to Tennessee in the second round of March Madness.
The combination of experience in All-American candidates Filipowski and Proctor and the normal 5-star crop coming in have everyone picking Duke as their number 1 or number 2 ranked team to begin the season. I’m not convinced that it will immediately be awesome for the Blue Devils. There are often growing pains with the high turnover on teams like Duke and Kentucky, but I am not even counting on that as to why Duke won’t win the ACC.
I think the ACC will be pretty competitive. Miami might have just lost to Florida in a secret scrimmage, but last year’s Final Four and reigning ACC champion have been pretty consistently competitive under Coach Jim Larranaga. Clemson just beat up Ohio State in a secret scrimmage and could be pretty good this year. North Carolina is reloaded and dominated Florida Atlantic in their secret scrimmage. Virginia should be fine this year. I think Virginia Tech has some upsets in them this year. There are plenty of teams that can upset the Blue Devils in conference play.
Part of being Duke is everyone gives you their absolute best in hopes of an upset. It is part of why Duke has only been regular season champion once in the past decade, and just 4 times in the past 20 seasons. Compare that to Kansas’ run of 18 for 19 regular season championships I laid out earlier and you see how insane Bill Self has been.
Duke doesn’t win regular season ACC titles. So, I think Duke loses a couple games in ACC play, however I also believe this Blue Devil team will have it figured out by March. Filipowski is a true All-American and National Player of the Year type of talent. I am very surprised that he came back. He is a nightmare for College bigs to guard and I think that – in what might be a less-talented overall CBB season than normal – a loaded Duke roster figures it out and make a deep run in March.
6. Tommy Lloyd and Mark Few meet in March Madness
I think this will be my third year in a row where I predict this or fill out my bracket in expectation of Coach Lloyd taking on his former boss in the NCAA tournament. But, this time it has to happen.
With programs as good as Arizona and Gonzaga, at some point they will run into each other. This date with destiny between the master and the apprentice would be an instant classic. I really think there is a strong possibility it happens this season too. Whether it is the 1-2 matchup in the Elite Eight or a 2-3 matchup in the Sweet Sixteen or even a 1-4 matchup, I feel like there is a cosmic force guiding the two schools to a collision.
I love Arizona this year. Tommy Lloyd loses Kerr Kriisa and Azuolas Tubelis, but there are plenty of players ready to step right up. Oumar Ballo, Pelle Larson and Kylan Boswell all should step into major roles this year. Meanwhile, the portal brought gifts in Keshad Johnson from National runner-up San Diego State, highly rated guard Jaden Bradley from Alabama, and the ever controversial Caleb Love from North Carolina. The public loves the Wildcats too as they are the favorites to win the PAC-12 (in it’s final season) at +200.
Mark Few and Gonzaga will be moving on from the Drew Timme era and I think they might be even better this year. Nolan Hickman and Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard will form one of the best backcourts in the country. Ben Gregg and Anton Watson won’t quite have the offensive footwork of Timme, but perhaps they will solidify the defense in a much more efficient manner. Graham Ike and Steele Venters are portal additions that bring All-Conference performance level talent. Braden Huff and Dusty Stromer are top-100 recruits bringing upside to the Bulldogs lineups.
Oh, and in classic Gonzaga/Arizona fashion both teams have new international players that we have no idea how good they will be.
Given the two schools’ geographic locations at some point we will see them be a 1 seed and 2 seed in the West bracket. As Arizona tries to forget it’s tourney woes under Lloyd and Gonzaga tries once again to land that elusive first championship, why can’t the basketball gods bless us this year with a Few vs. Lloyd game with a spot on the Final Four on the line?
7. Hunter Dickinson wins NPOY
Now these predictions are getting to some Flamin’ Hot Cheetos level bold!
This guess might be contradictory to the Houston over Kansas pick earlier, but maybe that makes this even bolder. The logic is simple here. I believe that every awards voter is afraid to ever pick a repeat winner for MVP/NPOY/Heisman etc. Voter fatigue, news cycle repetition and the publication of voter’s choices has made it extremely difficult to repeat. Zach Edey likely will have to improve to such an unrealistic level to repeat.
So, who will win it if the voters decide that they can’t do Edey again? The past three seasons have been centers in Edey, Oscar Tshiebwe and Luka Garza. A guard hasn’t won the award since Jalen Brunson in 2018. I don’t see a change coming this season as I think College awards value the more visible counting stats of rebounds and blocks more than they do steals and assists. The College voting contingency and coverage is zagging the NBA’s abandonment of the Big and fully embracing Bigs as their Messiah.
Hunter Dickinson is a perfect candidate for the National Player of the Year, too. Dickinson will draw headlines and is guaranteed to be a 17ppg and 9rpg type player at the low end. On the high end, I think Dickinson will become the true engine of Self’s offense in Lawrence. Self hasn’t had a true force in the post in quite some time. The Jayhawks were able to unlock something when David McCormack was able to channel great post play on their title run two years ago. Dickinson offers that great post play and brings a new wrinkle with his shooting touch.
I wonder about how Dickinson’s fit might hamper KJ Adams, who was a great distributing small ball five last year, yet undeniably Dickinson will get his. I think Self will make it a point to make Dickinson the guy to help as a recruiting tactic to try and flip other established star college hoopers to come to Kansas. Don’t underestimate the pitch of, “come to Kansas, win NPOY, compete for a title and make a boatload of NIL money.”
I might not be picking Kansas to win the Big 12, but I am picking Hunter Dickinson to be a monster under Bill Self and win National Player of the Year.
8. Michigan State exorcises the Big Ten’s Demons and wins the National Championship
Listen, I had to pick a National Champion as one of the predictions and I had to have a boldest prediction to end on. So, of course I had to do the obviously wrong choice of picking a Big Ten team to win it’s first title since Izzo and company did it in 2000.
Picking a Big Ten team to win the championship might be bold, but picking Michigan State isn’t insane. The Spartans have one of the best rosters in the country. The preseason no. 4 team has maybe the best and most experienced backcourt in the nation with AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker. Jaden Akins is a breakout candidate that has serious athleticism and shotmaking. At the time of writing this I haven’t decided which one of Hoggard, Walker or Akins I want to put on first team All-Big Ten. All three have a path to becoming the team’s most valuable player.
Beyond the backcourt Malik Hall brings stability, Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper bring some beef, Xavier Booker has top draft pick potential, Jaxon Kohler and Tre Holloman are too good to be bench players but will be and Coen Carr will be bending rims with his dunks. Of course, I think everyone also understands Tom Izzo’s abilities in March.
The Spartans have experience, they have crazy depth, they have lineup versatility, and they have one of the best coaches in the sport. Their home exhibition loss to Tennessee doesn’t sway me. If anything it more or so justifies how bold it is to pick a team who lost in the Sweet Sixteen last year and had 13 losses.
I don’t like many of the teams at the top this season, so why can’t it be MSU and the Big Ten’s year? Twenty three years of waiting could come to an end with Michigan State and Izzo finishing the Title drought for the Big Ten.
Games tipoff next Monday. I can’t wait to cover the entirety of the Big Ten for you this year. Make sure you catch up on my whole College Basketball Preview before we start the fast break towards March!