Previewing the 2023-24 Michigan State Basketball Season
In the month of October, The Floor Slap will be launching our College Basketball Preview. We will be previewing all 14 Big Ten Teams, making predictions, covering the biggest storylines across the country and more! Follow @thefloorslap to stay up to date on all our Basketball coverage before the season tips off on November 5th.
by Jordan Beckley
Could this really be it?
Tom Izzo once again proved he is Mr. March with a surprise run to the Sweet Sixteen last season.
It was an awesome run with a tough win over USC, an upset of Big East Champion Marquette, and eventually a heartbreaking overtime loss to Kansas State.
It was very much like Coach Izzo to take an overlooked Spartan team, make the second weekend and have everyone believing they will make the Final Four by the end of it.
Yet, all summer I couldn’t shake the thought of, “How many more Mr. March moments are left?”
It’s been well documented how much Coach Izzo has disliked the direction of College Basketball with the transfer portal and NIL. Read any interview or listen to any podcast he’s done the last few years and you are likely to hear at least one gripe about how those are negatively affecting some aspect of the sport.
Across the board we have been seeing older Title winning head coaches hang up their polos, whistles and whiteboards. Legacy coaches like Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski and Jim Boeheim all retired in the past few seasons. Even two time champion Jay Wright stepped down out of the blue and seemingly in his prime partially due to the change in the sport.
I don’t think this is Izzo’s last season, but I also don’t know this isn’t Izzo’s last season.
If we are guessing how he will go out, I feel like it’s far more likely that Izzo would leave quietly in a surprise announcement like Wright rather than a farewell tour like Coach K. Believe it or not, we need to be prepared that Izzo’s tenure won’t be permanent.
We don’t know this is Izzo’s Last March, but maybe we should prepare like it could be.
If it is the legendary coach’s last season, it is going to be an awesome one. The Spartans enter the season as preseason no. 4 in the country. The preseason hype is centered around the returning core for Michigan State. Crucially, Izzo returns his leading guard AJ Hoggard ready to make his senior season special. Tyson Walker is built for March Moments and returns for his last season of College Ball. It was a huge win for the Spartans keeping Jaden Akins and all of his potential out of the portal.
Other returnees like Malik Hall, Mady Sissoko, Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler, and Tre Holloman would be enough to warrant a Top 10 preseason ranking. But wait there’s more! Izzo also landed an awesome recruiting class with 5-star forward Xavier Booker and 4-stars Jeremy Fears, Gehrig Normand and Coen Carr.
Yeah, Michigan State is loaded this year. The Spartan roster has all the potential in the world to make the Final Four and potentially even have Izzo sail off into the sunset with a second ring on his finger.
Roster Breakdown
Guards: AJ Hoggard, Tyson Walker, Tre Holloman, Jeremy Fears
Part of the DNA of all of Tom Izzo’s best teams is a great point guard that sets the table for everyone. Whether it was Mateen Cleaves, Kalin Lucas, Cassius Winston and potentially now Hoggard, the Spartans are at their best when they have a special guard running the show. I’m not entirely sure what assist % is exactly, but in his first year as a starter Hoggard averaged 5.9 apg with a 38.6 assist %. That number was good for 5th in the country behind only Jalen Pickett, Tyler Kolek, Marquis Nowell, and Yuri Collins. Hoggard is a maestro passer orchestrating the Spartan offense, but he has also is a north-south driver with a punishing physicality around the rim and improved as a shooter going from 22% to 33% from 3 last season. MSU will need him to improve again as a catch and shoot guy when other players are handling the ball.
One guy who will have the ball in his hands a lot is Tyson Walker. Walker is (pun intended) a walking bucket. He was a monster in their close loss to Tennessee in a charity exhibition this past weekend with 22pts, 4apg and 5 steals. His late scoring push almost got the Spartans the victory after they were buried in the first half by the Vols. That’s also what makes Walker so special and Michigan State appealing as a Title contender is his clutchness. Whatever the definition is for the clutch gene in the examples portion it lists Tyson Walker. The man consistently steps up and hits ridiculous jumpers in high pressure scenarios. A true Final Four team needs a go-to guy in crunch time. Not only does Izzo know who that is but Walker has plenty of experience being that guy. Both good and bad.
Hoggard and Walker have great chemistry together and that pairing returning fueled much of the Michigan State hype in the offseason. However, they aren’t the only special players in the backcourt. For the sake of brevity, I am going to speed through their backups Tre Holloman and Jeremy Fears. The sparknotes version for them is that they are 4-star guards developing under Tom Izzo. Those kind of players usually are awesome. Both of them had 2 points in about 12 minutes in the exhibition against Tennessee. They will be awesome Spartans eventually, but for now they are the talented youngsters behind the veteran stars.
Wings: Jaden Akins, Malik Hall, Coen Carr, Gehrig Normand
Beyond the backcourt, the Spartans have tons of potential in their wing rotation. The man who might realize the most of his potential this season is Jaden Akins. If you just take a peek at his counting stats it’s easy to dismiss Akins. But if you ask the right Michigan State fan, Akins has All-American potential. Guess what? The eye test with Akins sort of backs that up. I don’t really have numbers to definitively prove why I love Akins so much, but you could see why MSU fans have been raving about him during the end of last season. In the last 7 games of the season, Akins made a leap and averaged 13.4ppg on 50% from 3 on 4.9 attempts and 45% from 2 on 5.7 attempts a game. So, there are numbers to back up the eye test. Plus, he looks like this when he dunks. You could talk me into any one of Akins, Hoggard, or Walker being considered the best player on the team by the end of the season. In the scrimmage against the Vols, Akins had 12 pts and 6 ast. If he can be a consistent playmaker on top of scorer, the Spartans have a tremendous starting trio.
Malik Hall is what Zach Lowe would descibe as the turkey sandwhich of this team. Hall is a good, consistent player. Does a lot of different things well but isn’t amazing at any of them. He is great as a supporting, off-ball guy with all the ball dominant players on MSU. He will need to be consistent as a 3pt shooter to maximize his impact. Hall is often the butt of the joke for MSU fans, but he is a solid player. He has started their two scrimmages at the 4. He is the safe, experienced player to fill that role, but the Spartans have other less experienced options that could raise this team’s ceiling higher than Hall can.
One of those guys is Coen Carr. If you don’t know who Carr is by now, just go to Youtube and search ‘Coen Carr dunk’ and kill a half an hour. His extreme bounce made an impact in his short stint against Tennessee. I think Carr’s floor is a solid 3&D player that brings a vertical aspect that Michigan State might be missing otherwise. His ceiling is an All-Big Ten type of defender, who hunts rebounds, is the scariest transition threat in the country and gets drafted after the season. Izzo doesn’t historically play many freshmen heavy minutes. Carr is too good to not see what he can do.
Normand seems to be a casualty of the Spartans’ depth. Normand logged a DNP despite being active for the exhibition. The 4-Star freshman might get some minutes in non-conference and his rebounding, defense and shooting will eventually make him a great role player for MSU just maybe not this year.
Bigs: Mady Sissoko, Xavier Booker, Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler
There are a lot of different options in the frontcourt.
It starts with Mady Sissoko who is the starting center to begin the year. Sissoko is a fine big. If Hall is a turkey sandwich then Sissoko is the bag of plain Lays chips. Sissoko is a big body who is a below average scorer, an okay rebounder and not a huge impact around the rim defensively. He only scored in double digits twice in Big Ten games last year. Sissoko is the safe option for Izzo and the Spartan staff, but there are other higher ceiling options.
One of those options is Top-10 recruit Xavier Booker. I have 100% overhyped a guy who played 8 minutes and took 2 shots in the exhibition against the Vols. Obviously Booker is raw, but he also has the highest ceiling by far of any of the MSU bigs. His shooting touch, light feet, long frame, and verticality are a formula other bigs on this roster can’t equal. I don’t think Booker needs to start necessarily, but if we are going to see his raw ability be sharpened into actualized skill he will need more than 8mpg.
Two other young options in the frontcourt present more intrigue than Sissoko. Cooper is an IMG Academy product that was a late roster add last year. He has impressed in short bursts and brings a similar brute size option as Sissoko. Notably, his free throw shooting is a problem. The last scholarship player is Jaxon Kohler. Kohler is currently rehabbing a foot injury that will keep him out to start the year. Kohler brings more versatility as a scorer in the frontcourt. He can do back-to-the-basket stuff, roll to the rim or hit midrange jumpers and threes. It will be interesting to see if Izzo ever plays him or Booker at the 4.
The backcourt might have an obvious hierarchy, but the frontcourt will definitely be something the Spartans will sift through all year.
What could go wrong?
One warning sign for Michigan State is that the analytical model guys don’t love them. KenPom has them much lower than voters do at 13 heading into the season. Models are obviously flawed, especially when they are ranking teams before games have happened, but it is pulling on a potential truth.
Maybe we are overrating this returning core. Maybe the highly recruited freshmen will follow a more typical MSU development path instead of being impact stars. It might be smart to remember the Spartans only won 11 games in Big Ten play and were bounced early in the Big Ten tournament by a bad Ohio State team.
While there is a version of Michigan State that is just good and hangs around the no. 15-25 in the rankings all year, that is discounting the Coach that this entire article is focused on. Tom Izzo might lose some games in November and January, but he gets the most out of his guys in March!
People are high on this team not because of what they will be on November 6th when the season tips off, but rather what they could be by Selection Sunday on March 17th. By then we will have seen Jaden Akins’ ceiling. We will know who became the alpha of the back court. The Spartans will know their rotation and how many minutes each player has earned. We will know what combination in the frontcourt is most effective.
Looking at how Michigan State performed in totality last year is discounting what the Spartans figured out about themselves by March. The same will likely happen this year. Don’t be surprised if Michigan State drops a few early games. The Spartans play a loaded non-conference schedule with Duke, Arizona and Baylor. Nevertheless, this Spartan team has the Championship DNA needed and has one of the best coaches ever.
Come tourney time the Spartans will be a threat to cut down the nets.
One More Run
Coach Izzo has one of his best MSU teams in years.
He has his senior PG in Hoggard, his go-to clutch scorer in Walker, his potential NBA guys in Carr and Booker, and all the makings of a potentially vintage Michigan State Final Four team. Could this team be more than the classic Regional Bracket winner and actually win the whole thing?
If you wanted to be a talking head and come in with a hottest take, you could criticize Izzo for his ability to close the deal. The Spartans have made eight Final Fours under his tenure but only the one National Championship. Izzo has been to six Final Fours since he last won a title in 2000. Not winning another title is just improbable.
Making eight Final Fours since 1999 and winning only one for Michigan State must be the unfortunate karmic balance to UConn making six in that span and winning 5 National Titles.
At some point, Michigan State is due to win one. However, if MSU does win a National Title it won’t be just because the Spartans were bound to win one eventually.
Coach Izzo is one of the best coaches in College Basketball history. Several of those Spartan teams were outmatched and made it to the Final Four in large part because of Izzo. Three of the past Five Final Four teams for MSU were 5 seeds or higher. This Spartan team won’t be a 5 seed.
I chose Michigan State as my National Champion pick in my bold predictions column. Their loss to Tennessee in the Breslin Center doesn’t scare me. The Spartans return a lot but are not a finished product and that is okay.
Coach Izzo will have to navigate starting 5 decisions, frontcourt rotations, and balancing talented youth vs. lower ceiling upperclassmen who have earned more trust. Those are all difficult decisions that are easy to make when you are tweeting from your couch and much harder when you’re the guy leading the team at the front of the bench.
But this is Tom Izzo, a coach who will almost certainly pass 700 career wins this season. All of those wins have been as head coach of the Spartans.
The coach that has come to define not just Michigan State Basketball, but Michigan State Football, Michigan State the university and East Lansing as a whole is about to start his 29th season at the helm. He may get to year 30, but he won’t be around forever.
So, appreciate this season Spartan fans. Enjoy seeing Izzo go completely red in the face. Savor the sideline player hugs. And hopefully celebrate your greatest ever coach with one more magical run in March.