by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
Three months later and we find ourselves in Rivalry Week!
I truly cannot remember a year with so much still up in the air coming into the final week of the regular season. Maybe 2007? But certainly not one in the 4-team CFP era.
We have 8.5 teams that if they win out are in the Playoff. Louisville comes in as the .5 team as they would need help even if they win out, but still NINE teams are still in play for the 4 spots. Unheard of.
In a season where we have been waiting for upsets of these top 10 teams, instead we had something truly upsetting happen with Jordan Travis’s season ending injury on Saturday night.
I am absolutely gutted for the Florida State fans, Mike Norvell and the coaching staff, his teammates and of course Jordan Travis, who seemingly worked his ass off and did everything right in his college career to earn his CFP moment in his senior season.
Sadly, Jordan Travis’ college career ended on that play, and in more bad news the 2023 regular season ends this weekend. But there is still so much to be decided.
Here are the Rivalry Week matchups for all 9 teams still hunting for the CFP:
- No. 7 Texas hosts Texas Tech Fri. 7:30 ET
- No. 6 Oregon hosts No. __ Oregon State Fri. 8:30 ET
- No. 3 Michigan hosts No. 2 Ohio State Sat. 12 ET
- No. 10 Louisville hosts Kentucky Sat. 12 ET
- No. 8 Alabama visits Auburn Sat. 3:30 ET
- No. 5 Washington hosts Washington State Sat. 4 ET
- No. 4 Florida State travels to Florida Sat. 7 ET
- No. 1 Georgia goes to Georgia Tech Sat. 7:30 ET
Can Texas escape again? Could Auburn have another miracle against the Crimson Tide? How does Florida State and Tate Rodemaker respond? How will the last matchups of Oregon Oregon State and Washington Washington State as apart of the Pac-12 go? Could the spurned schools of the Beavers and Cougars ruin the Ducks’ or Huskies’ seasons?
But by far the biggest game of the week and of the season is THE GAME between undefeated Ohio State and undefeated Michigan.
The two best defenses in the country face each other. KYLE MCCORD. JJ MCCARTHY. MARVIN HARRISON JR. BLAKE CORUM. sherrone moore. RYAN DAY. All meet in the Big House in the biggest matchup between the biggest rivals since the legendary 2006 matchup.
With all the extracurriculars surrounding this year, the sign stealing, the back to back Michigan wins and Ryan Day losses, no Harbaugh, this might actually be the biggest regular season meeting of the two programs.
In other seasons the loser might still make the CFP. For instance … well, last year. Not this time though. They might be the two best teams in the country, but for the Buckeyes and Wolverines it is a win or go home game to decide their season.
One team will be 12-0 and one team will be 11-1.
The biggest week of the College Football season starts now with our betting guide!
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 13
It isn’t just Ohio State vs Michigan this week in the Big Ten. Nebraska fights for bowl eligibility at home against Iowa. Bowl season might be lost for Purdue and IU but Coach Walters and Coach Allen can’t lose the Old Oaken Bucket too. The Illinois Northwestern game is sneaky good. A miserable Minnesota team could still be bowl eligible by beating those Badgers. Even Maryland and Rutgers get a game to decide who was the 5th best Big Ten team this year.
For the final time this season, let’s pick all 7 Big Ten matchups.
Iowa (+2.5) at Nebraska O/U: 26.5
- Iowa made the Big Ten Championship with a … let’s call it gutsy … win at home 15-13 over Illinois.
- The Hawkeyes celebrated the victory heavily with lame duck offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz giving him a Gatorade shower and a nice noogie like good ole’ Iowa boys
- My parents visited this weekend and part of my weekend was trying to explain to her that Brian Ferentz was bad, despite going 9-2 this year and that Kirk Ferentz was good not being fired.
- That was harder than you might think.
- Despite never scoring 3 touchdowns in any Big Ten game this year, Iowa is Big Ten West champs.
- Now we are staring down a 27.5 point under with Nebraska and I feel like Kylo Ren in Star Wars
- Nebraska hasn’t covered a spread in a month and have only covered two of the eight Big Ten games so far.
- I think I have officially been burned too many times by Nebraska
- Nebraska is 5-6 against the total this year. Iowa has been 28 or less for six weeks running.
- If you have the stomach for it let’s roll with one more Iowa under.
Penn State (-22.5) at Michigan State O/U: 42.5
- It is hard to put into words how bad Michigan State is now
- The Spartans are lost with no clear motivation and everyone is ready to turn the page.
- That is what often happens to teams whose head coach is ousted in scandal. Northwestern should have looked just as bad as MSU does post-Mel Tucker. That is why them becoming bowl eligible last week is so ridiculously impressive. Congrats, David Braun on locking down the full time gig.
- Anyways, Penn State by a million.
- We were both burned last week and forgot that James Franklin knows the spread and covers. Nittany Lions cover one more time.
Ohio State (+3.5) at Michigan O/U: 46.5
- You can check out this week’s podcast for a full preview of The Game, but let’s look at this through a betting lense
- The underdog has won 3 of the past 4 matchups
- Michigan is 5-5-1 ATS. Ohio State is 7-3-1. Michigan has the same Over record, but Ohio State is 2-9 against the over.
- JJ McCarthy, nursing an ankle injury, has a combined 201 passing yards, 0 total TDs, and an INT over the past two games. The offensive line (which hasn’t been nearly as good as the past two years) is also battling injuries at tackle.
- But Michigan’s defense, top-10 nationally in essentially every defensive statistic, hasn’t shown a weakness all season. They thrive on incredible depth along the defensive line, the surest-tackling trio of linebackers in the country, and a secondary that turns the ball over at an alarming rate.
- Kyle McCord struggled in the past two road games, throwing three of the four interceptions he has on the season.
- Treveyon Henderson has transformed a run game that was struggling midseason. He’s averaging 166 total ypg & 7.8 pc since his return from injury.
- Ohio State’s defense allows just .3 points more per game than Michigan, but fails to force turnovers. They are dead last in the Big Ten, averaging one turnover forced per game while Michigan is 2nd.
- Both offenses have question marks. Both defenses are elite. When these teams played Penn State, both unders hit comfortably. Under seems like the logical pick.
- This game is as close to a toss up as it gets in my head. I was leaning Michigan all season until some of these offensive injuries. Ohio State seems like the safer play, given it should be a tight game either way.
Indiana (+3.5) at Purdue O/U: 53.5
- This season has not panned out for Tom Allen or Ryan Walters.
- This could be Tom Allen’s last game as the Hoosier’s head coach.
- It won’t be Ryan Walters’ but it would be a really bad start to end 3-9 with a loss to this IU team.
- Like … I think Brendan Sorsby will be the Hoosier’s QB for the full game, but Hudson Card didn’t play last week for the Boilers and that went predictably bad for Purdue.
- Both of these teams are truly 50//50 on low scoring or very high scoring games with healthy quarterbacks.
- Purdue’s uncertainty at QB and Indiana’s lack of one whether Sorsby or Jackson has me going with the under.
- I am allergic to picking either of these teams ATS at this point.
Northwestern (+5.5) at Illinois O/U: 47.5
- After winning 3 of their last 5, Illinois and Bret Bielema have one last chance to become bowl eligible.
- Side note there is a world where 11 Big Ten teams are eligible and 3.5 of them are any good.
- Northwestern has beaten the spread 5 straight weeks and somehow is nearly a touchdown underdog again.
- Both teams are .500 against the total on the season with Illinois hitting three straight overs before this past week’s under and Northwestern hitting three straight unders.
- The Over/Under seems like a toss up I’m not willing to test.
- 5.5 is too much. Illinois has only won 1 game by more than 5.5 points and it was 6 points against FAU.
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota O/U: 42.5
- I detailed last week that Minnesota are two bounces away from being 3-8 and being recognized as the up there as one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
- There is still value here to be had with Wisconsin being less than field goal favorites.
- These are two of the teams that could have hurt you the most this season at a combined 6-12-2 against spreads this season.
- By law* we are required to pick every Big Ten game. (*disclaimer not required by law)
- Bite your tongue and take the Badgers.
Maryland (-1.5) at Rutgers O/U: 44.5
- So this is supposedly the battle for the 5th best team in the Big Ten… but both teams are on horrible losing streaks
- Rutgers has lost three straight since earning bowl eligibility.
- Maryland has lost 5 of their last 6 games.
- Your feeling on who will win the game is probably correlated to the total.
- If you think Maryland is going to win, you probably think the over will hit
- If you think Rutgers is going to win, you probably think the under will hit
- We only pick one or the other but if you feel strongly about either team you might want to consider parlaying with the corresponding total.
- This really feels like a pick’em.
| Game | Spread | Total | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| IOWA at NEBR | NEBR -2.5 | 26.5 | U26.5 | U26.5** |
| PSU at MSU | PSU -22.5 | 42.5 | PSU -22.5 | MSU +22.5 |
| OSU at MICH | MICH -3.5 | 46.5 | OSU +3.5 | U46.5** |
| IU at PURD | PURD -3.5 | 53.5 | U53.5 | PURD -3.5** |
| NW at ILL | ILL -5.5 | 47.5 | NW +5.5 | NW +5.5** |
| WISC at MINN | WISC -2.5 | 42.5 | WISC -2.5 | O42.5 |
| MD at RUTG | MD -1.5 | 44.5 | RUTG +2.5 | O44.5 |
Record to Date
Jordan 48-44 (3-4 last week)
Sean 52-41 (2-5)
Sean’s Locks 33-27 (1-4)
Consensus Picks 17-15 (1-3)
Out of Conference Games
Jordan: Kentucky (+6.5) at Louisville O/U: 50.5 // Alabama (-14.5) at Auburn O/U: 48.5
I will not be breaking ground here with my picks. I am not actually picking big upsets of top 10 teams in Alabama and Louisville. Quite the opposite. We are going chalk baby.
I love the under in the Louisville Kentucky game. This game feels like a three touchdown and 5 field goal kind of game. I lean towards Kentucky to cover because of that ugly nature and Louisville not ending with a full touchdown lead. The numbers for each team on totals favor an over, but I really can’t picture this game with enough points to eclipse 51.
Auburn is bad, mkay? I thought that when I saw in person LSU embarrass the Tigers like they were the local deaf school. In fact, the biggest surprise to me when I turned on the New Mexico State game was that they were bowl eligible not that they were losing to an 8-3 Aggie team. I guess it makes sense when you realize Auburn won games against UMass, Cal, and Samford in non-con and the gauntlet SEC schedule of Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.
Nick Saban didn’t pull this Crimson Tide team together mid-season to lose to this Auburn team. Jalen Milrolls thru Jordan-Hare Stadium by closer to 4.5 touchdowns than 2. Alabama -14.5. PS the over might be singlehandedly hit by the Tide.
Sean: Oregon (-13.5) at Oregon State O/U: 61.5 // Florida State (-6.5) at Florida O/U: 49.5
I knew Oregon State was being over favored the second they became the betting favorite to beat Washington. After a tough loss that might have gone a different way had it not been for the torrential downpour, I think there may be an overcorrection with the line in the Civil War. Bo Nix has been going scorched Earth over the past month. But Oregon State – top 2 in the Pac-12 in opponent yards, completion percentage, & INTs – will be Nix’s toughest challenge to date. Even so, Bucky Irving has been a consistent force on the ground if the pass game falters at all. Oregon gets their rival at home and have been playing so damn well over the past month. I don’t think DJ & the Beavers have enough juice on offense to keep up. Oregon wins the final Civil War for the foreseeable future, covering -13.5.
Florida State has been playing down to competition all season long and now must go into their finale with their backup QB. Tate Rodemaker is a redshirt junior with 93 career pass attempts and a 7:5 TD:INT. He was a 3-star prospect in the 2020 class and has proven to not be much of a factor with his legs. Graham Mertz has been efficient all year long for Florida and the backfield duo of Trevor Etienne & Montrell Johnson have been reliable. The Gators should be able to move the ball on Florida State. The problem is their defense – but that might not be as much of an issue with Rodemaker. This is more so a bet against an unproven QB in a hostile environment, but I’m taking Florida +6.5.
Jordan’s Upset Money Line Menu
So Rivalry Week is sort of like Restaurant Week for Upset Money Lines. We have just so many specials to choose from.
For instance, Oregon State at +360 with the motivation to avenge the death of the PAC-12 in the last yearly installment of the rivalry (for now) is kind of like being able to get a steak dinner for $30.
Even if it is unlikely to be a good steak, it might be worth trying.
Here are some Rivalry Week Specials I think are worth trying:
- Northwestern +184 vs Illinois
- Air Force +195 vs Boise State
- Virginia +122 vs Va Tech
- Pitt +188 vs Duke
- Florida +198 vs FSU
and ones to avoid according to Yelp:
- Mississippi State upsetting Ole Miss
- Texas Tech topping Texas
- Texas A&M winning in Baton Rouge
- Arizona State derailing the Jedd Fisch train
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Ohio State ML (+146) vs Michigan
- Iowa ML (+114) vs Nebraska
- Alabama (-14.5) vs Auburn
- Oregon ML (-580)
FanDuel Odds: +1088
You can check out this week’s podcast for a further breakdown of Ohio State vs Michigan, Iowa vs Nebraska, & much more. But in short, The Game is a borderline tossup in my mind so I’ll take the team with better odds. I also have legitimate concerns around Michigan’s offensive line and the health of JJ McCarthy & Roman Wilson. Iowa has been stealing team’s souls all season long. The environment should be loud, but I still haven’t seen enough from this Husker offense to think they can do anything against Iowa.
I’ve been riding Alabama to cover for quite some time now. They seem to always come through. I get it – it’s a rivalry game. Auburn consistently plays up to Alabama, even in their down years. But fresh off a 31-10 stomping at the hands of New Mexico State, does this team have what it takes to contain Jalen Millroe? Even if they force some early mistakes, I don’t have much faith in a Tiger offense that lacks a real threat at receiver. Alabama will continue to roll.
Tossing on Oregon ML increased this parlay’s odds from +910. I think it was worth it, given how Oregon has been humming on both sides of the ball. Last week was Oregon State’s shot at the big upset – not this week. I can see the Beavers hanging around, but only if Nix becomes a little sloppy with the ball which seems unlikely. Even so, I trust Nix to make the play at the end of the game like he did against Washington.
Player Props
Black Friday Games
Deacon Hill O120.5 Pass Yards (-114)
- Nebraska’s defensive turnaround in 2023 has been nothing short of miraculous. But the secondary is certainly their weakness, ranking in the bottom half of the Big Ten in opponent pass yards, completion percentage, and interceptions. Deacon Hill has played his best football over the past two weekends, averaging 195 pass yards per game, a 2:1 TD:INT, and putting up his only two games with a QBR over 50 as a starter. Even in what will be another defensive battle, I like Hill to at least get to 125 pass yards.
Kaleb Brown O28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Nebraska has allowed a receiver to reach at least 76 receiving yards in their last 3 games & 5 of their past 6. After a quiet start to the season that made you forget Iowa even landed the former 5-star WR in the portal, Kaleb Brown has come on to end the season. He had his first catch three games ago against Northwestern, followed that up with a 5-touch, 47-yard game against Rutgers, and exploded with 7 catches for 71 yards last week against Illinois. I think Iowa will open up this offense a bit in Brian Ferentz’s last game and nothing to lose or gain in this matchup. Kaleb Brown shouldn’t have an issue getting over 30 receiving yards.
Gavin Sawchuk O100.5 Rush Yards (-114)
- With the status of QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Jalil Farooq in question, the Sooner run game figures to the focal point of the offense against TCU. TCU has struggled to defend the run against quality running backs, allowing over 250 yards combined when they faced Tahj Brooks of Texas Tech and Jonathon Brooks of Texas just a couple weeks ago. Gavin Sawchuck has been averaging 118 rush yards on 7.2ypc over the past three games. Another big game should be in store against the nation’s 67th-ranked run defense.
Troy Franklin & Bucky Irving Anytime TD Scorer (+120)
- Franklin & Irving are sitting at -310 and -220 odds to score a TD, respectively. But parlaying them together boosts the odds all the way to +120. Last week’s blowout against Arizona State was the first time Bucky Irving didn’t score a TD since September. Franklin, meanwhile, has scored a TD in all but two games this season.
Saturday’s Games
Treveyon Henderson O78.5 Rush Yards (-114)
- Michigan’s entire defense has been stout all season, but they have yet to face a back like Treveyon Henderson. He’s playing like the RB in the country since he returned from injury. Despite all of Penn State’s offensive woes, Kaytron Allen still managed 72 rush yards against this Michigan defense. Ohio State isn’t going to ask Kyle McCord to go win this game for them. They are going to ride an improving run game and stingy defense. Michigan’s offense doesn’t pose a threat of jumping out to a big lead and forcing Ohio State to abandon the run game, either. No matter how this game turns out, Treveyon Henderson should be the focal point for the Buckeyes.
JJ McCarthy U210.5 Pass Yards (-114)
- If Michigan’s offense is going to have success against the vaunted Buckeye defense, it’s going to be on the ground. Ohio State does a great job at limiting explosive run plays and defending short-yardage situations, but they allowed teams to chip away yards on the ground at various points this season. McCarthy’s health is TBD as he nurses an ankle injury, as is his #1 receiving option in Roman Wilson. Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosum, Jordan Hancock, Josh Proctor, and the rest of this elite secondary have been lockdown all season long. I don’t expect the Wolverines to find much success throwing the ball on Saturday.
Cam Ward Anytime TD (+194)
- Cam Ward leads the Cougars in rushing TDs on the season and has 5 in his past 4 games. The Washington secondary he is facing on Saturday will be a major challenge, meaning he’ll need to utilize his legs and extend plays if the Cougars want any chance of staying in this. Opposing QBs have had some good success scrambling against this Husky defense. In their past 5 games, the opposing QB has rushed at least 25 yards and a combined 3 TDs. Ward is one of the most underrated QBs in the country and can be very difficult to bring down in open space. At nearly +200 odds, I will absolutely take the gamble on Cam Ward finding the endzone with his legs.
Sean’s 5 Locks
Sean explains all of his 5 locks each week on The Floor Slap Podcast.