by Jordan Beckley & Sean Szymczak
Somehow, here we are. Week 12.
You know what that means?
The SEC and their vaunted schedule has 7 matchups against non-power 5 schools. Classic.
Meanwhile we just have all 14 Big Ten teams going to war with each other for the 3rd straight week.
We have just two weeks before Conference Championships. So make sure you put in every parlay, each upset money line, all the bets, etc. while we still have 60+ CFB games every Saturday.
We might all be waiting for Rivalry Week next week, but take the time to savor the last normal CFB Saturday while it’s still here.
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 12
In the Big Ten East we have calm before the storm that is THE GAME next week. While in the Big Ten West we have division deciding matchups with Iowa having an opportunity to clinch the division against Illinois and the Freedom Trophy is up for grabs with Luke Fickell and Matt Rhule trying to become bowl eligible with a win.
7 more Big Ten Games for the 2nd to last time this season. Here we go!
Michigan (-19.5) vs Maryland, O/U: 50.5
- Simply put I think Michigan and Ohio State are on a date with destiny to have maybe the biggest College Football matchup ever next week.
- Last week was the first game that Michigan didn’t win by 20 points in the Big Ten.
- Michigan is 5-1 ATS in the past six Big Ten competitions.
- The Terps just don’t have the dudes to be in this race.
- The unstoppable force moves on to meet the immovable object next week.
Rutgers (+20.5) vs Penn State, O/U: 42.5
- This line has moved a significant amount from 17.5 to 20.5 favorites for Penn State
- Rutgers is 0-2 since dancing in the lockerroom midseason for bowl eligibility with a 19 point loss and a 22 point loss
- 42.5 seems dead on for this game.
- Rutgers is 5-5 for totals this year, but have only hit the over in Big Ten games 3 times.
- Furthermore against the defenses of Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan it was an easy under. I think the Scarlet Knights were lucky to score enough for the over in the Ohio State game.
- If you don’t want to sweat the under, I think this line has gone too far. Rutgers to cover is one of the safer bets to make this weekend.
Michigan State (+4.5) vs Indiana, O/U: 47.5
- Who is the worst team in the Big Ten?
- The sportsbooks believe that it’s the Spartans
- It’s hard to argue with them either. MSU has gone 1-3 ATS in the past four games losing by 13, 35 and 49.
- Indiana on the other hand has been playing good ball.
- The Hoosiers have covered three straight weeks playing Penn State tough, beating Wisconsin and losing a tight one to Illinois in Overtime.
- The over seems high, but with these defenses that could easily be passed if this game goes that direction.
- I see too much volatility in the points total.Give me Brendan Sorsby and IU to cover.
Purdue (-3) vs Northwestern, O/U: 48.5
- So Northwestern is the underdog at home here?
- Wildcats opened as 1.5 favorites but the line was swung in the complete opposite direction
- One rule to follow with betting is to follow what a team’s done all year not just the past week.
- So, Purdue beat up on Minnesota in West Lafayette.
- Northwestern beat Minnesota too.
- The Wildcats have been the better team all year.
- Why are they underdogs at home?
- I am consciously aware I am picking too many spreads but this is the play.
Illinois (+3.5) vs Iowa, O/U: 30.5
- At this point I am no longer looking at anything in Iowa games but the under.
- Let’s ride the sicko train again this week.
- Illinois lost 20-7 a few weeks ago to Nebraska (similar defense) and that would hit this under.
- Even if that was before John Paddock…
- Still, do you really want to pick a cover for either of these teams?
Minnesota (+27.5) vs Ohio State, O/U: 48.5
- Minnesota is bad!
- The fact that they are a game away from Bowl Eligibility is sickening.
- If Haarberg started week 1, Minnesota loses to Nebraska and if the refs do their job Cooper Dejean beats them on his punt return.
- The Gophers would then be 3-7 with wins over MSU, the Ragin’ Cajuns, and Eastern Michigan.
- The Over for OSU burned me last week. I’m taking the Buckeyes to cover and cruise towards the date with destiny in Ann Arbor.
Nebraska (+4.5) vs Wisconsin, O/U: 36.5
- The Freedom Trophy this year pits two first year coaches against each other playing for bowl eligibility.
- Not quite a Big Ten West deciding game that we thought it would be, but if Iowa loses then it will have major implications in that race as well.
- Both these teams have made me feel stupid all year.
- I like Nebraska better, but Wisconsin should be better?
- At this point who is carrying the ball for the Badgers?
- Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 3 total TDs on the season btw. Yeah, just 3 TDs on 224 pass attempts.
- I’m going under in an ugly game and not being hurt by these teams again.
| Game | Spread | Total | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| MICH vs MD | MICH -19.5 | 50.5 | MICH -19.5 | MICH -19.5 |
| RUTG vs PSU | PSU -20.5 | 42.5 | RUTG +20.5 | RUTG +20.5** |
| MSU vs IU | IU -4.5 | 47.5 | IU -4.5 | MSU +4.5 |
| PURD vs NW | PURD -3 | 46.5 | NW +3 | O46.5** |
| ILL vs IOWA | IOWA -3.5 | 30.5 | U30.5 | O30.5** |
| MINN vs OSU | OSU -27.5 | 48.5 | OSU -27.5 | OSU -27.5** |
| NEB vs WISC | WISC -4.5 | 36.5 | U36.5 | U36.5** |
Records to Date
Jordan: 45-41 (3-4 last week)
Sean: 50-36 (6-1 last week)
Sean’s Locks: 32-23 (4-1)
Consensus Picks: 16-12 (2-0)
Out of Conference Games
Jordan: Washington (-2.5) vs Oregon State, O/U: 63.5 // Louisville (-1.5) vs Miami O/U: 46.5
I want to pick some winners. You guys want some winners? Let’s get some winners.
I like Louisville a lot. I think they separate themselves as the 2nd best team in the ACC officially with a win in Hard Rock Stadium this weekend. Give me Jawhar Jordan, Jeff Brohm and a reverse of Kenny Payne with a Louisville win! I like the under too and paired with Louisville cover is +245 but I will just stick to the cover to make sure it’s a winner.
The game of the week is Washington visiting Oregon State. The Huskies have had six straight Pac-12 wins by single digits. Michael Penix Jr has been a miracle worker to save Washington week in week out most recently against Utah and Bryson Barnes. I think the Washington magic runs out on Saturday and DJ Uiagalelei has his magical moment for the Beavers and gives Oregon State a true Pac-12 sendoff! Give me Oregon State moneyline and the under for +210 and an incredible week of Playoff Scenario Talk next week!
Sean: Georgia (-10.5) vs Tennessee, O/U: 58.5 // Kansas State (-8.5) vs Kansas, O/U: 56.5
What did we not learn from last week? Tennessee got taken out behind the shed by Missouri and beat into a pulp. The Vols have been overrated all year long – they were dominated by 5-5 Florida, outscored 24-0 in the second half against Alabama, and have only two wins against teams with winning records. Their offense has been incapable of producing the same explosive plays that drove their success in 2022, while their defense has been picked apart by the litany of mediocre quarterbacks on their schedule. Enter Georgia – fresh off a demolition of Ole Miss and playing their best football of the season. Carson Beck is better than any QB Tennessee has faced to this point and Brock Bowers is finally healthy. The environment will be raucous, but that’s not anything a veteran squad like Georgia won’t be used to. I think this is another spanking. Georgia covers -10.5 with ease.
Winner stays alive in the crowded Big 12 race behind Texas in the Sunflower Showdown. Kansas QB Jason Bean was knocked out of last week’s upset loss to Texas Tech early on, but Lance Leipold said he is “very optimistic” he will be good to go against Kansas State. Kansas State, meanwhile, has been riding the QB duo of Will Howard & Avery Johnson to become one of the nation’s most potent offenses over the past five weeks. If Bean ends up not being able to go or isn’t 100%, I don’t think Kansas stands a chance in this game. But rivalry games can always get a little wonky. That’s why I’m staying away from the spread here, and instead focusing on the over/under. It sits at 56.5, despite Kansas State averaging 42ppg over their past 5 games and facing a defense that’s 66th in scoring defense, 76th in total defense, 67th in turnovers forced, and 90th in rushing defense (KSU’s strength). The Wildcats are also one of the best teams in the country in red-zone offense. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks haven’t been a slouch offensively themselves. This should be a good old-fashioned Big 12 shootout that goes well over 56.5 points.
Jordan’s Upset Money Line Menu
You know when you look up the menu before you get to the restaurant and it spoils some of the surprise?
Yeah, I spoiled two menu options in Northwestern over Purdue and Oregon State over Washington. But there are plenty of other options on our Money Line Menu this week if those aren’t appetizing.
Last week’s menu included two great games of Illinois Indiana and Duke UNC that just fell the wrong way in overtime. The UConn flier didn’t pan out, but Alabama paid out for sure.
I think we are due for a big payout this week. So, I will drop off the Money Line Menu and be right back with the drinks. Take your time and let me know what you pick:
- Colorado +168 over Washington State
- Northwestern +114 over Purdue
- UCLA +205 at USC
- Nebraska +168 at Wisconsin
- Iowa State +240 over Texas
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Washington ML vs Oregon State (+114)
- Georgia alternate spread (-13.5) vs Tennessee (+112)
- Nebraska vs Wisconsin U36.5 (-104)
- Iowa State (+7.5) vs Texas (-115)
FanDue Odds: +1563
I get it, Oregon State is a trendy upset pick over Washington because of their sound defense and balanced offense. But they’re not even underdogs anymore! Getting Washington ML at plus odds is dumfounding to me. I feel like the public is holding down games against Arizona State and Stanford against the Huskies a little too much. Did you know Washington was dealing with a flu outbreak in their program over those weeks? Since then, their offense has gotten back on track, thanks in part to a rejuvenated run game. Washington is a veteran team that can handle the crowd noise and spotlight. You can take the points if you want to be safe, as it should be a close game. But I’ll roll with the team who has risen to the occasion time and time again this season.
As I mentioned above, I think Georgia stomps Tennessee. I was tempted to take the alternate spread even higher, but getting it at under 2 touchdowns at plus odds seems like a safe bet to me.
Check out this week’s podcast (links below) for a further breakdown for the Wisconsin vs Nebraska game and so much more. But in short – both of these offenses are coming off their worst game of the season and are averaging a combined 30ppg over the past six weeks.
Finally, I’m putting Texas on upset watch this weekend on the road against Iowa State. They’ve won 4 of their past 5, while Texas has failed to cover in 4 of their past 5. Quinn Ewers looked a little rusty in his return from injury last week and Iowa State has a sneaky good secondary. Ames, Iowa under the lights has been a scary place for highly-ranked Big 12 teams to play in years past. It’s a seemingly slow week of college football, meaning near upsets are bound to pop up. Wouldn’t be shocked if Texas did its typical thing and had a tremendous letdown. But I’ll play it a little safer and just take the points.
Player Props
Jaylen Wright U54.5 Rush Yards vs Georgia (-114)
- Jaylen Wright has quietly put together a great season at running back for the Volunteers. But against Missouri and Alabama, Wright combined for just 44 yards on 18 carries. This is another stout defensive front he is facing off against. I also expect Georgia to dominate Tennessee, forcing the Vols to abandon the run game. It should be another quiet day for Wright.
Deacon Hill O124.5 Pass Yards vs Illinois (-114)
- Iowa QB Deacon Hill has certainly struggled in place of Cade McNamara this season. But he’s coming off his best performance of the season, completing 65% of his passes for 223 yards and a TD. Illinois is playing their best football of the season and they need a win to stay alive in the West, but their secondary is still very exploitable. I mean, they just let Indiana hang 45 on them. And with Cooper DeJean (Iowa’s best player) out on defense, Iowa may need to score more than 13 points to win this one. I think Hill builds on his performance from last week and at least has a respectable day against perhaps the weakest pass defense Iowa has faced all season.
Omarion Hampton O89.5 Rush Yards vs Clemson (-114)
- Hampton is one of the most underappreciated skill position players in all of college football. He’s been on an absolute tear for UNC over the past 5 weeks, averaging 155 rush yards per game on over 6.5 ypc. Clemson has been good, not great against the run this year. They allowed Georgia Tech’s Jamal Haynes to run for over 100 yards on nearly 4 ypc last week, and Notre Dame had a good game on the ground against them the week before. Omarion Hampton should have another big day in a tight, high-scoring affair in Death Valley.
Marvin Harrison Jr to Score 2+ TDs vs Minnesota (+150)
- Last week indicated to me that the Ohio State coaches are doing their best to prop up Marv’s Heisman campaign. This is another overmatched opponent which the Buckeyes should take care of in the first half, meaning they’ll be able to do just about anything they want on offense. Minnesota doesn’t have anyone that can even challenge Harrison in 1:1. Tyler Nubin is a great safety, but I’m sure Day can draw up schemes that will move him away from their stud receiver. Marvin Harrison Jr has scored 7 TDs in the past 3 games. I think that trend continues on Saturday.
Sean’s 5 Locks
Sean’s 5 Locks (hitting at over 58% so far this season) are featured weekly on The Floor Slap Podcast.