As the College Football season comes to a close, many people will turn to College Basketball to fill the void. For the January Edition of the Super 16, we present to you the 22 teams that matter in CBB for 2024. We catch you up on the two months of action you missed, who the best teams are, and guarantee that the National Champ is on this list!
by Jordan Beckley
As we turn the calendar to the New Year, the college sports calendar changes too.
Almost every College Football team is done, NFL teams are wrapping up the regular season and many sports fans will be looking for something else to watch.
Hello, College Basketball!
So in case you were consumed with something else for the first two months of College Basketball, I am here to catch you up on the 22 teams that matter for this season.
Every month I am doing a new edition of College Basketball Power Rankings or my – Super Sixteen -. For January’s Edition of the Super Sixteen, I will be doing my annual ‘__ Teams that Matter’ article.
What that means is that I am going to write about all the teams that will matter in the National Title race this season.
I guarantee is that the 2024 National Champion is on this list.
I am not guaranteeing all 4 Final Four teams will be apart of the 22 teams on this list.
Last year, both Florida Atlantic and San Diego State were not on this list and made the Final Four. Every year there is usually a surprise Final Four team, however the National Champion is more predictable. Both UConn and Miami were also on 2023’s teams that matter list.
With that in mind, I have broken down all the teams into tiers of contenders. We have the Favorites, the ‘If It All Goes Right’ teams, the ‘Talented Enough but Flawed’ teams, and the teams that maybe should be aiming to make the Final Four, but could still win it all.
So, let me tell you about the 22 teams that will matter in the 2024 season by giving you their highs, their lows, and a little bit about what makes them so good or what could prevent them from cutting down the nets!
Tier I: Title Favorites
Through the first two months of play these teams have separated themselves. Your next National Champion is most likely in this group.
1. Purdue
Highs: Won Maui Invitational, Beat Arizona
Lows: Lost at Northwestern in OT
If you are parachuting into the College Basketball season you might be asking, “Didn’t Purdue lose to a 16 seed?”
Yes! Yes, they did. However, nobody has proven themselves more than the Boilers have this year.
Purdue was the Maui Invitational Champion in a potentially it’s best field ever that included Kansas, Marquette, Tennessee, & Gonzaga. The Boilers beat those last three and beat Xavier, Alabama, and no.1 ranked Arizona in Indianapolis as well.
Purdue is 12-1 with the toughest non-conference schedule of any Power-6 team. Braden Smith has made a leap to be an All-Big Ten level guard. New players Lance Jones, Myles Colvin and Camden Heide are filling holes. And oh yeah, Zach Edey will likely win National Player of the Year again.
A single loss at Northwestern is the only blemish on the Boilermakers’ season. The haters will point to that and say that the same thing will happen come March, but just know there is a reason that Purdue has been the favorite to win the National Championship on FanDuel for most of the season.
2. Kansas
Highs: Beat UConn in Phog Allen, Wins over Tennessee & Kentucky
Lows: Big Loss to Marquette
The Preseason no.1 team is not far from being back there.
Kansas is a team highlighted by Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson, Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar in his second year in Lawrence, and National Champion winning guard Dajuan Harris.
Despite my doubts about him, McCullar has emerged as a star averaging 20 points a game. KJ Adams and Dickinson are clicking next to each other in the frontcourt. However, the Jayhawks are extremely thin on bench production.
Kansas has wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, at Indiana and over UConn. A convincing loss to Marquette prevented a primetime matchup between Kansas and Purdue, but there is clearly enough of a resume for Bill Self’s team to believe they are a Title favorite once again.
3. Arizona
Highs: Won at Duke, beat Wisconsin, Michigan State & Alabama
Lows: Lost to Purdue in Indy, Lost to FAU in Vegas, Lost at Stanford
Arizona just dropped below Kansas after a strange loss to Stanford on New Year’s Eve.
Tommy Lloyd’s team is one of the most entertaining in College Basketball averaging the 2nd most ppg at over 90 a game. The Wildcats have incredible firepower with all five starters averaging over 12 ppg. Yet, Arizona also has a go-to guy in North Carolina transfer Caleb Love.
Love is the leading scorer at over 16ppg and scored 26 and 29 points in the two losses to FAU and Purdue.
Arizona had one of the most impressive wins of the season by beating Duke in Cameron Indoor. Arizona easily could’ve won the two neutral site losses to top 10 teams on their resume too. With other wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Alabama, there aren’t many teams that can keep pace with the Wildcats.
The loss to Stanford is puzzling, but keep in mind that no.1 UConn lost their last game of 2022 and lost another 4 of their next 5 before ending the season on a 6 game winning streak. Arizona is definitely still capable of doing the same.
4. Houston
Highs: went undefeated in non-conference games so far
Lows: haven’t played anyone before an 18 game Big 12 schedule
Most Cougar fans will want them to be ranked higher than this. I don’t know how you can do that given their schedule.
Houston is undefeated with their best wins being … Dayton and a “neutral site” game in Houston versus Texas A&M. Truly, Coach Sampson has outdone himself with his non-conference scheduling this year.
The bad news is now Houston hasn’t tested themselves before they have to play 18 Big 12 games against ranked opponents like Oklahoma, Texas, BYU, Baylor and Kansas.
Houston is a typical Sampson team with the no. 1 KenPom defense while also having a top 20 KenPom offense. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer has helped that end by stepping into the leading man role with Marcus Sasser gone.
Houston has a verified rotation, is intense on the boards, and forces opponents into a terrible shot profile with miserable percentages. Maybe the Cougars are the best team in the country, but we can’t really say that until they actually play somebody.
5. UConn
Highs: Wins over Texas, North Carolina and Gonzaga
Lows: Lost at Kansas, Blown out in Big East opener to Seton Hall, can’t stay healthy
The reigning National Champions check in at no. 5 after a bad loss to Seton Hall in their Big East opener.
The Huskies easily could have stolen no. 1 for me before that loss. Just watching Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer become weaponized under Dan Hurley is a great way to understand what makes him such an elite head coach.
The roster is loaded with Spencer, future first round 7′ big Donovan Clingan, versatile power forward Alex Karaban, and ol’ reliable point guard Tristen Newton now as the leading scorer. There is also plenty of potential to get better with highly ranked Freshman Soloman Ball and Stephon Castle and junior big man Samson Johnson. UConn will need to lean on Johnson too as Clingan will miss a couple weeks with a foot injury.
When looking at the Huskies record remember UConn hasn’t been fully healthy basically all season. Losing at Kansas is forgivable and the wins that UConn has over Texas, North Carolina and Gonzaga have proven they are title favorites again this year.
Tier II: If It All Goes Right
This next group isn’t quite the level of the favorites, but ‘if it all goes right’ they have the right mix to win it all.
6. Marquette
Highs: Dominated Kansas and Texas, beat Illinois and Creighton
Lows: Close loss to Purdue, Lost to rival Wisconsin, Lost at Providence
The hardest cut from the Title favorites group is Marquette.
The Golden Eagles are really, really good. It’s an old-school team that has been built and developed with upperclassmen Kam Jones, Oso Ighodaro, David Joplin and Tyler Kolek running it back for the reigning Big East champs.
Coach Shaka Smart’s team is capable of beating anyone with dominant wins over Kansas and Texas, even winning in tough environments like at Illinois. However being blown out at Providence and losing once again to rival Wisconsin show that they are susceptible of falling short like they did last year in the Round of 32.
If the right matchups lineup for Marquette they are capable of winning it all, but for right now the Golden Eagles have enough flaws to not be in the title favorites group.
7. Tennessee
Highs: Beat Illinois, won at Wisconsin
Lows: Lost to UNC, Kansas & Purdue
The Vols are SEC favorites with Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht as the new front man for their offense.
Tennessee has the usual Rick Barnes’ defense (no.2 in KenPom), but it is the offensive play of Knecht that could elevate the rest of this Vols team. The Vols boast serious experience with all of their top 7 players in minutes being upperclassmen.
Tennessee has a home win over Illinois and won at Wisconsin, but for the most part Tennessee hasn’t beaten anyone “above them” with losses to Kansas, Purdue and North Carolina. If they want to move up to the Title favorite tier, the Vols will need to beat a team of that caliber.
There is some room for optimism as even though the rotation is defined there are still roles being defined with Zakai Zeigler rehabbing and Santiago Vescovi, Josiah Jordan-James and Jordan Gainey figuring out their offensive impact.
Nobody will want to play this Tennessee defense come March. Will the offense be good enough to compete with the best of the best?
8. Kentucky
Highs: Beat UNC & Miami
Lows: Lost to UNC Wilmington & Kansas
Big Blue Nation is back!
Coach Calipari has gone back to his roots and just grabbed 5 of the best freshman recruits in the country and is running them out there. All the while, seniors Antonio Reeves and West Virginia transfer Tre Mitchell bring guiding veteran hands.
Kentucky is winning with the old Coach Cal formula averaging over 90 ppg (4th most in the country) with big wins over North Carolina and a mauling of Miami in Rupp Arena. Still, we know where it can go wrong for the Cats. The loss at home to UNC Wilmington (no. 116 on KenPom) shows the youth of this team.
If it all goes right the Freshman will be ready come March and the Wildcats will make their first Final Four since 2015 or maybe even win Coach Cal’s second National Title. If it goes wrong UK might have another high seed and repeat what happened with St. Peter’s.
9. North Carolina
Highs: Beat Arkansas, Tennessee & Oklahoma
Lows: Lost to UConn, UK & Villanova
Nobody has had more of a mixed bag of results than North Carolina.
The Tar Heels have split decisions between wins against Arkansas, Tennessee & Oklahoma with losses to UConn, Kentucky and Villanova. However, UNC has climbed the rankings coming from the preseason no.19 team to a consensus Top-10 team on the back of one of the hardest schedules in CBB so far.
North Carolina has been fueled by RJ Davis (21.7 ppg) taking the reins with Caleb Love gone, transfers Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram have fit in perfectly to boost the rotation and Freshman Elliot Cadeau brings room for growth at the point.
North Carolina has shown it can compete with any of these top teams. Right now the defense and the bench production has not been enough for them to be able to win it all.
If one of Jae’lyn Withers or Jalen Washington can become the backup big Hubert Davis needs and maybe after playing together for a full ACC season the defense takes shape, North Carolina can win it all.
Tier III: Talented But Flawed
These teams aren’t quite up to the level of the 2nd tier title contenders, but they could be. Every opposing coach that loses to these teams will call them “Final Four Good”
10. Duke
Highs: Beat Baylor and Michigan State
Lows: Lost at home to Arizona, lost at Arkansas & at Georgia Tech
Duke clocks in as our first Flawed team, but that might be a mistake.
The preseason no. 2 team still has the 9th best title odds according to FanDuel. The Blue Devils are led by All-American big Kyle Filipowski averaging almost 18 ppg. One of the “flaws” that Duke has is they don’t know who the next best player is.
Is it the experienced Jeremy Roach, the young Jared McCain, or the injured Tyrese Proctor? Coach Scheyer will likely figure that out and have crunch time plays decided by March. What they probably won’t have figured out is who will guard the best bigs on the premier teams.
Last year, Zach Edey fouled out Dereck Lively and nearly fouled out Filipowski in Purdue’s win over Duke. Who on the Blue Devils will Scheyer throw at Edey, Hunter Dickinson, or Donovan Clingan?
Duke has forgivable road losses, an understandable home loss to Arizona, and a KenPom profile of offense and defense that puts them as Title Contenders. However, Duke will really need to hope that the seeding and games shake out that they don’t have to face one of these premier interior threats.
11. Baylor
Highs: Beat Auburn and Seton Hall
Lows: Loss to Duke, blown out by MSU
Baylor is 10-2 and has done so because of one of the best offenses in the country (no.3 on KenPom).
Freshman Ja’Kobe Walter will hear his name called in the draft here soon as he leads Baylor in scoring at over 15ppg and shooting over 40% from three on high volume. Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis, Langston Love, and Jayden Nunn make up the rest of the ferocious Baylor Bear backcourt. Highly rated Freshman Yves Missi also offers huge upside down low for Coach Scott Drew.
Their fatal flaw is that they can’t guard anyone. Baylor has the no. 65 defense on KenPom and that simply isn’t good enough. A struggling Michigan State embarrassed the Bears by hanging 88 points on them.
If Coach Drew wants Baylor to go past the first weekend, Baylor will need to tap into the energy of the defense from their 2021 title team. If they don’t, Baylor will join the past two teams by having great offenses and early tournament exits.
12. Florida Atlantic
Highs: Beat Arizona, wins over VA tech, Texas A&M, Butler
Lows: Lost to Bryant, Loss to Illinois, lost to Florida Gulf Coast
Florida Atlantic will drop more than they should in the AP poll for the loss to FGCU. I had them here before the loss and won’t move them.
FAU plays a fast brand of basketball that seemingly feels like it’s 1 on 1 with all five players at the same time. Johnell Davis is back and just as awesome as you remember him from last March, Vlad Goldin has made a jump and the depth behind him has been better, and Alijah Martin is as good of a 2nd guard you will find in the country.
Dusty May’s team just beat Arizona and were back in the Top-10 because of it. The Owls managed to outscore Arizona in double overtime, but there is a warning sign in plain sight when Bryant beat them 61-52 and reigned in the fast FAU offense and forced them to 5-30 from the three point line. That bore itself out in the Florida Gulf Coast loss being held to a season-low 65 possessions and 4-20 from distance.
The wins over Virginia Tech, Texas A&M and Butler are fine wins, but defenses like Houston, Tennessee, Kansas, etc. should scare Owl fans.
Florida Atlantic is a winning group of guys and they’ve all been there before. Betting against them probably isn’t smart. Still, winning 4+ games in March is very hard and there is a reason people don’t go to back to back Final Fours often.
13. Creighton
Highs: Wins over Alabama, Iowa and Nebraska
Lows: Lost to Villanova, UNLV, Colorado St, at Marquette
Creighton is rather simple to dissect.
The Bluejays take the 10th most threes a game in the country at 29.5 attempts a game. In their first three losses, Creighton shot 27.6%, 20.8% and 20.7% from three. Their other loss was at Top-10 Marquette by 5 points.
Coach McDermott’s team has a good defense forcing opponents off the three point line allowing the 13th fewest makes from distance, never fouling as they give up the fewest free throws in the country at 9.2 a game and holding the most 2PA to a top 75 number at 46.2%.
Creighton hasn’t lost because a few guys went unconscious on the opposing team. Rather Creighton loses because they rely on the three and now have had three games where their shooters were too conscious.
The Bluejays have a Final Four formula with Ryan Kalkbrenner as the anchor, Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander jacking shots, and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth running the show in place of Ryan Nembhard. Creighton could ride a hot shooting streak to a shot at a National Title, however so far the Bluejays have busted in 1 of every 4 games.
14. BYU
Highs: Wins over NC State and San Diego State
Lows: Lost to rival Utah
BYU should be much higher in the Super Sixteen if you are a fan of statistical models.
The Cougars are a consensus Top 5 team in KenPom, Bart Torvik, Evan Miya, NET rankings etc.
Mark Pope’s team have obliterated their opponents with 10 of their 12 wins being by 25 or more. Can I just see it against good teams though?
BYU’s best wins of San Diego State and NC State coupled with a loss to Utah is my “flaw” for the Fighting Latter Day Saints. They will have plenty of chances to prove themselves in their first taste of Big 12 play. Just know that all of the predictive stats you see on twitter will tell you that the Title favorites are the teams I listed in Tier I … and BYU too.
Tier IV: Final Four Goals
These teams probably don’t have enough to win the whole thing, but they matter. A better goal for them is to try and make the Final Four.
15. Oklahoma
Highs: Wins over Providence, Arkansas, Iowa & USC
Lows: Loss to UNC
Oklahoma is a proof of concept for the transfer portal.
After finishing 15-17 last year and 9th in the Big 12, Porter Moser revamped the Sooners’ roster with key transfers in Javian McCollum, John Hugley, Le’tre Darthard, and Jalon Moore to make them competitive again. Coach Moser also kept and developed sophomores Milow Uzan and leading scorer Otega Oweh from last year’s team.
The Sooners’ wins over Providence, USC and Arkansas aren’t anything to sneeze at, but they also have lost to the only team on the Super Sixteen they have played in North Carolina. Oklahoma in a way has surpassed expectations by making this list, but now there are bigger beliefs in Norman.
If things go their way, Oklahoma has the top-12 KenPom defense and the guard play to make some upsets and punch their ticket to Phoenix.
Side note, nobody has boosted their profile at a better time than Moser who was 34-33 in his first two seasons at OU, but now is rumored in jobs like Louisville. Sometimes the coaching carousel can come down to timing it right.
16. Memphis
Highs: Wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M, Clemson, Dominated Virginia
Lows: Lost to Ole Miss, blown out by Villanova
Coach Penny has loaded the Tigers’ non-conference schedule having already played 9 Power-6 opponents and going 7-2 in those games (also randomly 4-1 against 5 SEC opponents).
Memphis is chock full with tested upperclassmen including David Jones who is putting together an All-American level season averaging 21 points per game. Other grad-transfers like Caleb Mills from Florida State or Jahvon Quinerly from Alabama make up one of the most experienced teams in America. Plus, Kansas State transfer Nae’Qwan Tomlin will be eligible now in the New Year.
The current KenPom profile indicates the Tigers aren’t good enough. Still, the experience here and the tough schedule have shown enough to me that this team will be a tough out for anyone in March. Don’t be surprised if Memphis wins the American over FAU.
In the Waiting Room
The next few teams aren’t in any specific order as they are outside my Super Sixteen but they are apart of the teams that matter. I will write a few quick sentences on each on why they matter or why they didn’t make it over teams above them.
Illinois
I originally had the Illini at no. 13 before the news broke about Terrence Shannon Jr being suspended for a rape charge. There isn’t much to say about the Illini right now until we know more about his status. Without the borderline First Team All American, Illinois isn’t good enough to win it all or even make the Final Four.
Texas
I believe Texas is capable of playing much better than they’ve shown so far. A top 5 of Dillon Mitchell, Tyrese Hunter, Dylan Disu, Virginia transfer Kadin Shedrick and Max Abmas (yes, that Max Abmas) is too good not to matter. With Disu returning, don’t be surprised if the Longhorns are closer to Houston and Kansas than they are Kansas State in the Big 12.
Colorado State
The Rams have a Top-10 KenPom offense lead by All-American candidate Isaiah Stevens who is averaging 17 points and 7 assists. Colorado State has some nice wins over Colorado, Creighton and Washington with an acceptable loss to St. Mary’s. Why it might not work out for Niko Medved’s team is they are currently the 87th Defense on KenPom.
Gonzaga
This isn’t the same Gonzaga of years prior. The two best wins for Gonzaga over the LA schools aren’t as impressive as they were supposed to be and the Bulldogs haven’t been up to snuff when playing the best competition. Still, Mark Few deserves trust and there is a higher ceiling for Gonzaga with a lot of players in new roles or at a new school.
Texas A&M
A team with a healthy Boots Radford, Wade Taylor and Henry Coleman is capable of making a run in March. This Aggie team has played a tough schedule and lost most of them. Buzz Williams will need to turn their defensive play into somewhat competent to make a run though.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide have 5 losses but are still somehow a Top-5 KenPom team and ranked above three of the teams they lost to. Nate Oats’ team shoots a massive amount of free throws and threes and are very good at making both. They also foul a ton and give up a too many easy shots at the basket. Right now, I would have Alabama ranked below several other teams that don’t matter, but their shot selection with talented players like Mark Sears, Grant Nelson, and Aaron Estrada gives them the formula to be 1 of the 22 teams that matter.
Cut for Time
Finally, one sentence on whatever team you are probably upset didn’t make the list.
Wisconsin has the right mix to upset your favorite team in one game, but not enough to have Final Four be a realistic goal.
UVA is not good enough offensively as they aren’t in the top 150 offenses on Kenpom.
Auburn has the KenPom profile that they might matter, but I don’t see them having enough to go all the way.
PJ Hall is awesome for Clemson, but the Tigers seem to be a good not great team.
Ole Miss is 13-0 but is 79th on KenPom and has played a strength of schedule close to 300th.
Maybe Michigan State plays their way back to the teams that matter list, but for right now my preseason National Championship pick doesn’t matter in the National Title chase.