by Sean Szymczak & Jordan Beckley

It’s the holiday season! Time for family, gift giving, cookies, beer bellies, and degenerate sports betting. The 2023 college football bowl season features 43 games, but the best matchups don’t really start until Saturday December 23rd.

Being a Big Ten blog, we kick things off with breakdown & picks for all nine bowl games featuring Big Ten teams. We’ll then offer our picks & analysis for the other NY6 bowl games that don’t feature a Big Ten team before diving into a couple under-the-radar bowl games that deserve more attention.

We’ll wrap thing up with some can’t-miss player props for the CFP semi-final games before breaking down a couple Hail Mary Parlays that are sure to fill your wallet back up after the holiday spending spree.

In total, we offer FREE picks & analysis for 14 bowl games, 5 player props, and 2 parlays. This is only resource you need to ensure your bowl season is a profitable one.

Big Ten Bowl Games

Utah (-6.5) vs Northwestern, O/U: 41.5

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

These two teams ended their regular season on entirely different notes, with Northwestern winning 4 of their final 5 games & Utah losing 3 of their final 5.
Utes QB Bryson Barnes announced his intention to transfer next season but will be playing in this bowl game.
Both of these defenses have been stout against the run all year long but are susceptible against the pass. Both of these offenses depend on their run game to boost an inconsistent aerial attack.
Northwestern ended the season on a 3-game win streak in which they were outgained in each game, but they were +6 in TOs. On the flip side, Barnes turned the ball over 6 times in his final 4 games and was sacked 6 times.
This game figures to be sloppy on both sides of the ball. Whoever wins the TO battle is likely to win the Las Vegas Bowl. The O/U seems risky here, as both defenses could have their hand in setting up easy points for their offenses.
Northwestern has won games every way imaginable this season: late-game comebacks, staving off rallies from their opponents, grinding out low-scoring defensive battles, & airing it out in shootouts. That kind of experience & grit makes me think they can at least keep this game to one possession

Bowling Green (+4.5) vs Minnesota, O/U: 38.5

Quick Lane Bowl

Bowling Green may only be a 7-5 MAC team, but they won 5 of their final 6 games of the season. Their one loss in that stretch came by one point to MAC champions Toledo.
Minnesota lost their final 4 games of the season by an average margin of 17 ppg.
With the news of QB Athan Kaliakmanis transferring, 5th-year senior Cole Kramer will get his first career start. He has only 44 career pass attempts.
The few times the Gophers have found success on offense, it’s all stemmed from the run game. Unfortunately, Jordan Nubin & Sean Tyler are the only healthy, available backs their have to lean on. They have a combined 472 yards and 1 TD on 4.2 ypc this season.
Motivation will be something to watch for Minnesota, especially with a good chunk of this roster announcing their return for 2024. On the flip side, Bowling Green is looking for their first post-season win since 2014.
I’m not sure how Minnesota scores points in this game other than controlling the line of scrimmage and grinding out short gains on the ground. If you’re looking for value, BGSU ML could be the move. Otherwise, the under seems like the safest option.

Rutgers (+1) vs Miami, O/U: 40.5

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

Rutgers lost their final 4 games of the year after starting 6-2. Miami, meanwhile, lost 3 of their final 4 to finish 7-5.
The Canes’ strength is their defensive front, as they rank top-15 in the country in sacks, rush defense, and yards per carry allowed. That’s not great news for a Rutgers team whose offense is entirely reliant on the legs of QB Gavin Wimsatt & RB Kyle Monangai.
Wimsatt has completed more than half of his passes in only four games this season. Miami has allowed opponents to complete only 57% of their passes this season. It’s hard to envision the Scarlet Knight passing attack finally finding success in this matchup.
But the good news for Rutgers is they will be facing redshirt freshman QB Emory Williams, as Tyler Van Dyke is off to Wisconsin. In the two ACC games in which Williams saw significant action (Clemson, Florida State), he averaged just 5.9 yards per passing attempt and completed 56% of his passes.
The trend of these first three games continues – this has low-scoring, unwatchable football written all over it.

Missouri (-2.5) vs Ohio State, O/U: 48.5

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Ohio State opened as 6-point favorites in this game but the line plummeted after Kyle McCord’s transfer earlier this month. Despite several key Buckeyes announcing they would play in this game (Emeka Egbuka, Denzel Burke, Jack Sawyer among others), the line has continued to move in Missouri’s favor.
Missouri averages almost 275 pass yards per game (30th nationally) with a 3:1 TD:INT. The only opponent Ohio State has faced this season with a more potent pass attack was Maryland. Taulia Tagovailoa went 21-41 for 196 yards, 1 TD, & 2 INTs in that game.
Missouri RB Cody Schrader finished 2023 on a tear, running for over 100 yards at over 5 yards per carry and at least a TD in each of the Tigers’ final 5 games. But he’ll be going up against his biggest test of the year – even Michigan struggled to run the ball against Ohio State until their final drive of the game.
With Devin Brown starting at QB, it’s a mystery what this Buckeye offense will look like. He’s more mobile than Kyle McCord and has a cannon that allows him to make some more impressive throws than what we saw out of McCord. But this is his 1st career start and his accuracy has been a bit inconsistent in his limited time playing this year.
The only defense that Missouri has played which holds a candle to Ohio State’s is Georiga. Missouri totaled just over 350 yards in that game and turned it over twice.
This game seems like a more of a defensive showdown to me, once again making the under a logical bet.
Even with an unproven QB, Ohio State is the vastly more talented team. I’m shocked this line didn’t move towards at least a pick ’em with virtually every impact player suiting up for the Buckeyes.

Ole Miss (+3.5) vs Penn State, O/U: 48.5

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Ole Miss’ defense is not good. They played 4 opponents in the top 25 in scoring offense this year (Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, and Georgia). In those games, Ole Miss allowed over 42 ppg, 515 yards per game, and forced 4 turnovers total. Penn State is 12th in scoring offense.
The Rebels have 1,000-yard rusher Quinshon Judkins, but he has struggled against elite defenses this year. Against Georgia, Alabama, & Tulane, he totaled 179 rushing yards & 3 TDs on 3.4 ypc.
Ole Miss’ offense is predicated entirely on Jaxson Dart and his receiving trio of Tre Harris, Dayton Wade, & Jordan Watkins. Although Penn State hasn’t seen a pass attack like Ole Miss’ this season, they are still 3rd nationally in pass defense.
Penn State’s offensive woes have been well-documented all season long, but they seemed to finally turn a new stone in their regular season finale. They racked up 586 yards of offense and Drew Allar averaged over 10 yards per attempt for the first time since the opener against West Virginia.
Penn State is 1st nationally in turnover margin and sacks, while Ole Miss is 75th nationally in sacks allowed. The Rebels may connect on some deep shots, but I have a hard time envisioning them controlling this game.
The Nittany Lions are the better, more well-rounded team. Don’t let the SEC favoritism fool you.

Auburn (-2.5) vs Maryland, O/U: 49.5

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Auburn’s defense has been quietly effective all season long. They were able to fold Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia well below their season averages and stayed in those games much longer than they should have.
On the flip side, the Tiger offense has been anemic to say the least. They rank 67th in scoring offense, 91st in total offense, and 80th in turnovers. Their run game has been efficient, but not nearly enough to make up for a pass attack that ranks 125th in the country.
Maryland’s offense has been the Taulia Tagovailoa show all season long, partly because of his talent and the Terps’ deep group of pass-catchers. But also partly because their run game has failed to find its footing all season long.
Despite their offensive struggles, Auburn has done a good job of taking care of the football. But their defense hasn’t forced many turnovers. The opposite is true for Maryland – their defense does a great job at forcing turnovers, but Taulia & this offense has been loose with the football all year long.
Fun fact: Auburn QB Payton Thorne was Michigan State’s starter for 2 seasons. He played Maryland in 2021 & 2022, going 1-1 against the Terps.
This is one of the most underrated matchups of the bowl season. A high-flying, mistake-prone offense facing a defense that dominates the line of scrimmage. This one should come down the final minutes. If that’s the case, I’ll side with the Big Ten’s all-time passing leader.

Wisconsin (+9.5) vs LSU: O/U: 54.5

ReliaQuest Bowl

I said Ole Miss’ defense wasn’t good. Well, LSU’s is atrocious. They rank outside the top 80 nationally in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense, opponent completion percentage, rushing defense, opponent yards per carry, & turnovers forced.
Jayden Daniels announced he is opting out of this bowl game, leaving Garrett Nussmeier to make his 1st career start at QB. He was a consensus 4-star & top-150 prospect in the 2021 class. But he’s completed only 56% of his 174 career passing attempts with a 4:3 TD:INT. Nussmeier also is not much of a threat with his legs.
Even with Daniels’ opt-out, the spread has moved from 7 to 9.5 in LSU’s favor.
Despite the downgrade at QB, the receiving duo of Malik Nabers & Brian Thomas will be the toughest Wisconsin has faced all year (Emeka Egbuka didn’t play when the Badgers faced Ohio State).
Wisconsin’s receiver room will be thinner thanks to some transfers, but a healthy Braelon Allen, Tanner Mordecai, & Will Pauling should be enough to put up points on this porous Tiger defense.
LSU would have been a 6-6 team at best without Jayden Daniels this year, so it is perplexing a Daniels-less team is a two-possession favorite over Wisconsin.

Iowa (+8.5) vs Tennessee, O/U: 36.5

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

The Tennessee defensive front is one of the best in college football – bad news for an Iowa offense whose pulse is entirely reliant on RBs Leshon Williams & Kaleb Johnson.
But this isn’t the same high-flying Vol offense we saw last year. Joe Milton averaged 7.9 yards per passing attempt this year. Tennessee will also be without its top two RBs in this game, leaving Dylan Sampson to shoulder the load on the ground.
Against opponents in the top-40 of total defense this year (Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, & Kentucky), the Vols went 1-3 and averaged 14 points & less than 350 yards on offense. Iowa is top 5 in both scoring & total defense.
This game has defensive battle written all over it – a type of game Iowa is used to winning in the Big Ten West. However, Tennessee has a bit more speed on the outside than most of the teams Iowa has faced this year. Despite his struggles for the majority of the year, Milton should be able to connect on some deep shots thanks to the absence of Cooper DeJean.
The under seems like the safest play in this game. Sure, Iowa is built to win a game like this. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if they got shut out in this one.

Alabama (+1.5) vs Michigan, O/U: 45.5

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

98% of ML bets are on Alabama and more than 75% of all bets are on the Tide. And yet, this line hasn’t budged. That means Vegas is confident enough in Michigan to win that they are betting against the public. It’s not usually a good idea to bet against Vegas when they are this confident.
The Wolverine defense doesn’t have a weakness. They have the deepest defensive line in the country (32 sacks from 13 different players), the surest-tackling group of linebackers, and a secondary that turns the ball over at an alarming rate.
But if there is one thing this Michigan defense may not be prepared for, it’s containing a QB with mobility like Jalen Milroe. Not a single QB the Wolverines have faced hold a candle to Milroe’s athleticism & ability to extend plays.
The Tide defense made an incredible turnaround this year, but they have been susceptible to smash-mouth football this season. Auburn ran for 244 yards on 5.8 yards per carry and LSU ran for 206 yards on 8.6 yards per carry.
JJ McCarthy’s stats haven’t been eye-popping this season, but he is as efficient and careful with the football as any QB in the country. He also displayed some jaw-dropping accuracy when it mattered most against Ohio State. McCarthy has proven he has what it takes to put this offense on his back and make plays when he needs to.
The absence of Michigan’s All-American guard Zak Zinter can’t be overstated. Especially as they are going up against an Alabama defense that is 12th nationally in sacks.
Milroe and the Tide offense rank 123rd in the country in turnovers committed. That might end up being the difference against a defense that is 14th in turnovers forced.
Michigan showed in last year’s playoff that they are willing to open up the offense a bit more and play with more tempo & aggression. Jalen Milroe, the verstaile RB Jase McClellan, and deep-threat WR Jermaine Burton are talented enough to get points up on any defense. I think this may be more of a shoot-out than most are expecting.

Game	Spread	O/U	Jordan’s Pick	Sean’s Pick
Utah vs Northwestern	UTAH -6.5	41.5	Utah -6.5	NW +6.5
Bowling Green vs Minnesota	MINN -4.5	38.5	BGSU +4.5	U38.5
Rutgers vs Miami	MIA -1	40.5	MIA -1	U40.5
Missouri vs Ohio State	MIZZ -2.5	48.5	OSU +2.5	OSU +2.5
Ole Miss vs Penn State	PSU -3.5	48.5	O48.5	PSU -3.5
Auburn vs Maryland	AUB -2.5	49.5	MD +2.5	MD +2.5
Wisconsin vs LSU	LSU -9.5	54.5	U54.5	O54.5
Tennessee vs Iowa	TENN -7.5	36.5	U36.5	U36.5
Michigan vs Alabama	MICH -1.5	45.5	BAMA +1.5	O45.5

2023 Big Ten Betting Records:

Jordan: 52-48

Sean: 56-44

Consensus Picks: 19-15

Other NY6 Bowl Picks

Georgia (-14) vs Florida State, O/U: 44.5

Capital One Orange Bowl

Sean’s Pick: Star WR Johnny Wilson, leading rusher Trey Benson, and starting TE Jaheim Bell have all opted out of the Orange Bowl for the Seminoles, making this an even taller task for an offense that has struggled mightily since Jordan Travis went down with injury.

On the flip side, Florida State’s defense has been lights out since the injury happened. They gave up less than 350 yards combined against Florida & Louisville. Their defensive line will be a bit short-handed with Jared Verse & Fabien Lovett opting out, but this is a unit that’s really thrived in shutting down the pass attack. The Seminoles allow opponents to complete fewer than 50% of their passes for just 170 yards per game.

I think the spread is tricky to predict because motivation will be a major question mark for both squads. Instead, I’m focusing on the O/U. Georgia and Florida State both boast elite defenses, making points at a premium. But I’m genuinely curious how the Seminoles will be able to put up points. I’m taking the under at 44.5.

Jordan’s Pick: I somehow became the spokesperson for why Alabama should be in the CFP over FSU to all my friends and family. Now, I somehow find myself rooting against the Seminoles after people have failed to see that they obviously should not be in over Alabama.

But Georgia being -14 is a lot. I am with Sean in seeing this as lower scoring and I am not sure there are enough points to cover two touchdowns.

The easy bet is the under. The smart bet is FSU cover. The Same Game Parlay bet is to combine those two. My bet is Georgia still covers and proves Bama belongs in the CFP if the Crimson Tide doesn’t already do that with a win over Michigan.

Liberty (+17.5) vs Oregon, O/U: 66.5

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Sean’s Pick: Liberty QB Kaidon Salter is one of college football’s unsung heroes of 2023 after leading the Flames to a 13-0 season. He averages better than 10 yards per passing attempt, boasts a 31:5 TD:INT, and has been sacked only 9 times on the year. With four receivers averaging better than 19 yards per catch, he has a litany of options that can stretch the field. Salter also leads the nation’s most prolific rushing attack, averaging over 300 rush yards per game. Needless to say, the Oregon defense will have its hands full in the Fiesta Bowl.

The good news for the Ducks is this Liberty defense hasn’t exactly been shutting down its opponents. They haven’t played an opponent from the Power 5, yet rank outside the top-45 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, and yards allowed per play. But if there is one thing they do well, it’s turn the ball over. The Flames are top-15 nationally in both turnovers forced and turnover margin.

Bo Nix is suiting up in what will be his final collegiate game, so it’s hard to imagine Oregon dropping this game. But I think this has the chances to be a lot closer than many think. The Duck defense hasn’t exactly risen up against the few elite offenses on its schedule (USC, Washington twice). I think they will have a hard time defending an offense that can beat them any number of ways. But at the same time, so will Liberty’s defense. Oregon wins, but I’m taking Liberty to cover +17.5 and O66.5 points.

Jordan’s Pick: I think this Oregon team has been Sportsbooks’ favorite team of all time.

17.5 points is STEEP even if it is a midmajor. Oregon and Bo Nix have been super heroes against teams not named Washington all season.

I have a running narrative for this Bowl Season that I think people will learn how good the Pac-12 actually was this season. I’m picking every Pac-12 team pretty much and Oregon will be no exception. Ducks make Liberty look like Colorado with a huge blowout and a fittingly weird sendoff to one of the weirdest College Football careers for Bo Nix. Oregon Covers.

Texas (-4.5) vs Washington, O/U: 63.5

CFP Semifinal at the All State Sugar Bowl

Sean’s Pick: The disrespect of Washington needs to stop. They are one of the most senior-laden teams in college football, are led by a QB that would have been my choice for the Heisman, and now boast an electric run game to compliment him thanks to the late bloom of RB Dillon Johnson. Over the Huskies’ final 5 games, Johnson rushed for over 135 yards per game & 9 TDs on 6 yards per carry. Combining him with Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk makes this offense nearly unstoppable.

But they’ll be going against a Texas defense that has been lights out since their collapse against Oklahoma – particularly against the run. They are top-5 nationally in both rush defense & yards per carry allowed.

Washington has leaned on a “bend don’t break” defense this year, to put it gently. They aren’t particularly stout against the run, or against the pass, or at forcing turnovers, or at stopping teams in the red-zone. Nonetheless, it seems like this defense is able to come up with the big play when they need it most. That side of the ball helped secure wins against Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State, and in the Pac-12 title.

Thanks in part to a run game that has continued to be effective despite the loss of Jonathon Brooks, Quinn Ewers is playing the best football of his career. He is fresh off a 450 yard, 4 TD performance in the Big-12 title. Ewers has a tendency to take some sacks he shouldn’t, but that shouldn’t cost him too much against a Husky defense that ranks 120th in sacks.

I get why Texas is the firm favorite in this matchup. At face value, they seem to be the more complete team. But there is something to be said about a team that is as battle-tested as Washington is. They have won games in every way imaginable: high-scoring shootouts, defensive battles, end-to-end domination, late-game rallies, and staving off comebacks from the opponent. They have been tested against quality opponents in the back half of their schedule more than Texas has – plain and simple.

Pennix’s 46 career games should show its value in a game like this. The Sugar Bowl is sure to offer highs and lows to both squads. Pennix and his experienced roster should be able to take those in stride. Call it a gut feeling, but I’m taking Washington ML over Texas.

Jordan’s Pick: This pick comes down to a handful of questions that I will just float out there.

What if Washington is actually really good? What if the Big 12 is quietly really bad? What if Texas went 1-1 against the two teams that were actually top-15 opponents all season? What if that win came against a new starting QB who had yet to attempt 20+ passes in a game?

I took Washington at +750 to win the title when the odds came out. This game should be a toss up. Nobody in the country is better at winning close games than the Huskies. Legitimately any of the four teams can win the Title. +750 is too high, even if I don’t love the Bama matchup. Washington ML at +172 is my pick as I continue to respect the final year of the Pac-12. Oh and the Line is too low at 63.5 in my opinion.

Under-the-Radar Bowl Picks

Sean’s Pick: Pop-Tarts Bowl
NC State (+3) vs Kansas State, O/U: 47.5

One win away from their first 10+ win season since 2002, NC State’s veteran roster should have no problem getting up for this game. The Wolfpack have ridden a deep stable of backs (they have 5 players with at least 250 rush yards), the ACC’s most underrated receiver in Kevin Concepcion (64 catches for 767 yards & 10 TDs), and an elite defense (top 25 nationally in both scoring & total defense) to 5 straight wins to end the season.

Kansas State, on the other hand, gets an early look at what 2024 might hold. They will be without starting QB Will Howard, future NFL OL Cooper Beebe, and the leaders of their secondary in safety Kobe Savage & cornerback Will Lee, among others. Part of the Wildcats’ resurgence this season was because of freshman QB Avery Johnson and his elite athleticism. The packages Johnson has seen this season will certainly help him in his first career start, but running the entire offense is a far cry from what he’s been asked to do so far.

I like NC State to win this game because of their defense’s ability to force turnovers – they rank 4th in the country with 2 forced turnovers per game. Avery Johnson’s legs should put some strain on the Wolfpack front, but I don’t see him getting through this game mistake-free.

This game is exciting to me for a few reasons. It’s a matchup one of the nation’s most overrated teams (K-State) and one of the most underrated (NC State). It’s a matchup of a veteran squad looking to deliver one of the best seasons in its school’s history against a team that will have to lean on many young, inexperienced players. It is also a matchup of two teams that want to run the blood out of the football – a rare find in today’s college football. This should be a fun one to watch, betting aside. But speaking of betting, I’m taking NC State ML (+115) and U47.5.

Jordan’s Pick: Alamo Bowl
Arizona (-2.5) vs Oklahoma O/U: 62.5

If the College Football schedule wasn’t completely messed up by award season, the coaching carousel, the transfer portal and general bowl opt outs, this game would be soooo good.

Instead, Oklahoma doesn’t have it’s starting QB in Dillon Gabriel or it’s OC in Mississippi State HC Jeff Lebby as well as a litany of other non-participants. This is the really lame part of CFB. Hopefully an expanded CFP will help this next year.

Still, these are two really good football teams meeting for a top 15 matchup. If you’ve read my other picks you know who I am going to pick. Arizona has been the quietest really good team I can think of in a long time.

It is a fantastic test for the “do you know ball” for fans to ask them about Arizona. Smart people will know about Jedd Fisch, the Wildcats and the Pac-12. Twitter scrollers will just say some generic, “Arizona’s traaaash dude” and not mention anything about them as their games were likely too late for them to watch.

I like Arizona to cover.

CFP Player Props

Blake Corum to Score 2+ TDs (+230)

Corum TD props have been incredibly profitable in 2023. He’s scored at least 1 TD in every single game this season and scored 2+ TDs in Michigan’s last 5 games. Alabama has allowed 2+ rushing TDs in each of their 5 games against D1 opponents (they played Chattanooga a few weeks ago). This is an absolute steal at +230.

JJ McCarthy O185.5 Passing Yards (-114)

JJ McCarthy attempted 34 passes in last year’s semifinal. I expect the Wolverines to open up the offense a bit again in the Rose Bowl. And he might have to – this won’t be a low-scoring defensive battle. Alabama allowed Carson Beck, Joe Milton, Max Johnson, & Jaxson Dart to go well above the 186 passing yard mark. McCarthy is better than all of those QBs by a good margin.

Jalen Milroe O32.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

As mentioned above, Michigan hasn’t faced a dual-threat like Milroe all season long. The last time they faced a QB with mobility that sniffed that of Milroe’s was in last year’s semifinal. Max Duggan ran for 57 yards & 2 TDs in that game. The sacks could certainly set him back – considering Alabama is 125th nationally in sacks allowed & Michigan is 36th in sacks. But with this number all the way down at 32.5, all Jalen Milroe has to do is rip off one big run.

Rome Odunze O96.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odunze has averaged 110 yards receiving over the past 4 games. Texas has allowed a receiver to top 90 yards in 3 of their past 4 games. The Longhorns also allowed Oklahoma WR Jalil Farooq to reel in 130 receiving yards. Needless to say, none of those teams had a QB/WR duo like Pennix & Odunze.

Quinn Ewers O287.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Quinn Ewers has stepped up big in Texas’ biggest games this season, topping 325 passing yards against Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas, & Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title. Washington allows 263 passing yards on average – Ewers and his deep receiving core are not average.

Sean’s Hail Mary Parlays

NC State ML (+115) vs Kansas State
Ohio State ML (-108) vs Missouri
Arizona ML (-150) vs Oklahoma
Penn State ML (-172) vs Ole Miss

FanDuel Odds: +976

I’m going with 2 win-big parlays for the bowl season. First up, is the “winners” parlay. These games span different December 28th & 29th, but it’s four results I am very confident in. I covered my NC State pick above.

Ohio State has the defense to shut down Missouri’s offensive attack. The Buckeyes Cody Schrader’s impact on the ground and have lockdown CB Denzel Burke to follow 1,000 yard receiver Luther Burden around. The Tigers don’t have another receiver that can really strike fear into one of the best secondaries in the country. QB Brady Cook’s mobility could cause some issues (we saw how JJ McCarthy’s ability to extend plays and throw on the run hurt Ohio State’s defense), but I don’t think that’s enough for Missouri to go on sustained drives. The Buckeye offense is a major question mark with Devin Brown making his first career start, but I think the public is sleeping on the former 5-star’s talent. As long as Treveyon Henderson plays (he is one of the few Buckeyes who haven’t announced their intention to play this game), Brown won’t have to do too much to the nation’s 41st-ranked scoring defense. I’m confident Ohio State wins this game.

The Sooners will be down QB Dillon Gabriel, 3 starting offensive linemen, and their OC in the Alamo Bowl against Arizona. 2023 5-star QB Jackson Arnold will take over the reigns of the Oklahoma offense, but he’s attempted passes in just 3 games this season. Arizona, on the other hand, is sustaining minimal opt-outs/losses for this game. They finished the season on a 6-game win streak and all 3 of their losses came by one possession. The Wildcat defense should be able to take advantage of Oklahoma’s inexperienced line, as they rank 20th in rush defense, 23rd in opponent yards per carry, and 28th in sacks. The Sooner defense has allowed over 30ppg in the back half of the season and should have a difficult time containing the WR duo of Tetairoa McMillan & Jacob Cowing. Arizona should win the Alamo Bowl and secure their second 10+ win season of the century.

Finally, I love Penn State to beat Ole Miss. In fact, I think there’s a good chance the Nittany Lions run away with this one. It appears they will be only lightly impacted by opt-outs in the Peach Bowl. Chop Robinson isn’t playing, but DE Adisa Isaac, LB Curtis Jacobs, CB Kalen King, & OL Caedan Wallace are all planning on suiting up. With a fierce pass-rush and a secondary capable of locking up elite receivers, Penn State should give the Rebel offense fits. Offensively for the Nittany Lions, Kaytron Allen & Nick Singleton are healthy should pose a challenge to the nation’s 69th-ranked run defense. Drew Allar is coming off his best performance of his young career. I think he’s ready to make a statement for what’s to come in 2024 with a more aggressive offensive attack.

Washington ML (+152) vs Texas
Michigan vs Alabama O45.5 (-110)
Iowa vs Tennessee U36.5 (-110)
Michigan ML (-120) vs Alabama

FanDuel Odds: +1490

Next is my “New Year’s Day” parlay. I covered my Washington pick above. It’s certainly a bit risky – Texas appears to be the better team from top to bottom and deserves to be the favorite in this matchup. But something in the pit of my stomach says that Washington’s experience will be enough to propel them to an upset win and a national title birth.

I also covered above why I think the Rose Bowl between Michigan and Alabama might be more of a shootout than many believe. Vegas’ unwavering confidence in the Wolverines to beat the Tide has me following suit.

Finally, there’s nothing like a classic Iowa under to wrap up the 2023 season. Iowa unders are 11-2 this season – a trend that has continued from 2022. They are facing a Volunteer defensive front that should have no problem shutting down their run game and harrasing Deacon Hill. The Tennessee offense has lacked explosive plays all season long and face another challenge against the Hawkeye defense – top 15 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, opponent yards per carry, passing defense, and opponent completion percentage. The Citrus Bowl should resemble another defensive, Big Ten West battle.

Happy Holidays!

From The Floor Slap family to yours, we hope you have a happy & healthy holiday season. Be sure to check back here after the New Year for continued college basketball coverage and the kick-off of the 2024 college football preview.