Follow Sean & Jordan throughout the 2024 season as they give picks for EVERY Big Ten game & compete in the FanDuel $100 Balance Challenge
by Sean Szymczak and Jordan Beckley
Fellas, we made it.
Our Countdown until Big Ten Football is down to single digits and every Saturday morning for the next four months will begin with College GameDay. Blessed.
Hopefully in the Football hibernation (aka the offseason) your Fanduel balance had time to recover even if Euro 2024 & the Olympics extended the betting season a little longer thru the summer. We are ready to begin our degeneracy and hide it from our significant others by only telling them the ones that hit and maybe a few of the ones that just barely missed.
So, welcome back to the Big Ten Betting Guide! This was one of our most popular series last season and we are so excited to kick it off again with a few changes.
We are going with a new format for the 2024 season. With the addition of Oregon, UCLA, USC & Washington we will have up to 18 (!) games to pick each week. That is unfortunately too many games for us to give full breakdowns for. So, we are changing scheme and going to a Cover Three. Sean & Jordan are going to each give three Big Ten picks with a full breakdown for each one. We will follow that up with our full Big Ten Picks chart picking the Over/Under or the spread for every Big Ten game that week. Finally, we will close with our $100 FanDuel Balance Challenge.
So, let’s get ready for wings & beer on a crowded coffee table, the scoreboard app of your choice failing to load in the stadium, spending your gameday mornings & nights with Kirk Herbstreit, and of course winning some bets!
Cover 3
Sean & Jordan’s weekly 3 Big Ten betting locks
Sean’s 1st Pick:
Minnesota (+2.5) vs UNC
The Gophers opened as 2.5 favorites but that has swung in UNC’s favor with the news that Minnesota star RB Darius Taylor may be unavailable due to a hamstring injury sustained a couple weeks ago. I am high on Minnesota this season for plenty of reasons other than their game-breaking back, so I am still riding with the Gophers.
New QB Max Brosmer provides stability with 24 consecutive starts under his belt at Monmouth, where he led the FCS in total offense. He has one of the Big Ten’s best collection of skill position players at his disposal and an offensive line that should be greatly improved thanks to the return of four starters. Even if Darius Taylor can’t go, the Gophers have a formidable group of RBs. Jordan Nubin was more than serviceable as the backup last year and they brought in two veteran transfers. North Carolina was outside the top 70 nationally in total defense, scoring defense, yards per carry allowed, & opponent completion percentage. That side of the ball has struggled since Mac Brown took over and I don’t see that changing this season.
The Tar Heels will play two quarterbacks in the opener – Max Johnson & Conner Harrell. Johnson is a 5th-year transfer with 22 career starts at LSU and A&M. Harrell is a redshirt freshman dual-threat who hasn’t attempted a pass in college yet. There is certainly some raw talent there and RB Omarion Hampton is one of the best in the country. But the forecast is calling for rain during the game and Minnesota returns nine starters on the defensive side of the ball.
North Carolina hasn’t won a road opener against a power-conference team since 1992. Minnesota has the edge on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball but is clearly being underrated due to a disappointing 2023 season. PJ Fleck’s teams never lack focus or motivation. Playing at home and seeking vengeance from last year’s loss to the Tar Heels, Minnesota should be able to pull out this win with or without Darius Taylor. Take the points to be safe.
Jordan’s 1st Pick:
Iowa vs Illinois St U40.5
Week 1 is about many things. Comically large spreads: as in Ohio State’s near 50-point spread versus Akron. Random Power 5 matchups with rankings based on nothing. Oops, Top 10 Florida State lost to Georgia Tech! Betting on complete unknown offenses with QB debuts looming (think Dylan Raiola, Aidan Chiles, Billy Edwards Jr. etc.).
But one offense and one coach we can count on being steady and that is the Iowa Offense and Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes take on Illinois State at home as 23.5 point favorites with an expected point total of 41.5. Basically Vegas believes this will be a 31-10 final score. Makes sense right? Well Iowa would have hit the over on this game just twice in fourteen opportunities last season. An offense that bad surely would have big changes right? Well, Kirk’s son is gone at OC, but he is running it back with Cade McNamara at QB. Coincidentally, Iowa hit their over just twice in fourteen games last year as well.
Will Kirk Ferentz’s suspension inspire Iowa to put up some points against a directional school? Maybe. Or it might lead to Interim Head Coach and co-defensive coordinator Seth Wallace to an even uglier offensive performance to honor what Ferentz holds dear.
An Iowa under is a tradition as great as the Hawkeye Wave and one that signals CFB season is officially back.
Sean’s 2nd Pick:
Fresno State vs Michigan U45.5
Under interim coach Sherron Moore last year, Michigan beat ECU, UNLV, & Bowling Green (the two former being comparable competition to Fresno State) by an average score of 32-5. And that was with a 1st-round QB at the helm. Michigan still does not know who they are starting between Alex Orji, Jack Tuttle, & Davis Warren, but even the most optimistic Wolverine fans would admit there is big talent gap between the three contenders and JJ McCarthy.
With another great offensive line, star RB Donavon Edwards returning, and question marks littering the passing game, Michigan will run the ball and control the clock just like they are used to. I don’t expect many chunk plays or downfield shots in this opener, making it hard for me to imagine Michigan putting up more than 40 points.
Even if the Wolverines manage to score 40, I don’t think that’s enough for the over to cash. This Michigan defense is loaded once again and could have their eyes on a shutout. Fresno State was 103rd in yards per carry last year and will have trouble finding any success in the pass game with Will Johnson & Makari Paige roaming the back-end.
This is a 34-3 type game. I don’t think you’ll even need to sweat the under. Take it with confidence.
Jordan’s 2nd Pick:
LSU (-4.5) vs USC
It’s a matchup of the worst power program defenses of last year in a ranked matchup on Sunday Night to cap off the first CFB weekend.
USC (& Lincoln Riley) have had embarrassing defenses recently. How did they fix it? Well, Alex Grinch has been banished to be the safeties coach at Wisconsin and hired D’Anton” Lynn from UCLA. Lynn has coached at several premier defenses in the NFL before that.
LSU out of nowhere was the 82nd place defense giving up 28ppg when their standard is a Top-30 or so defense. For reference, the only over that LSU didn’t hit in their past 10 games was the Georgia State game when the line was set at 74.5(!!!) points. So, yeah Brian Kelly fired DC Matt House (he is now with the Jacksonville Jaguars) and brought in Missouri DC Blake Baker who happens to have ties to LSU.
Everything you read will be talking about the Over in this game. I’m telling you it’s a fools bet. Jayden Daniels is gone. So is Caleb Williams. Backup QBs will be given their first opportunity as “the man” against Defenses hungry to prove themselves. Under is safer.
Still, my pick is one of principle. I don’t believe in Lincoln Riley. I believe in the consistency of Brian Kelly. I don’t think Riley has the mettle to forge a top defense. Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley are tied together from being the major offseason hires of the 2021 offseason and I think Kelly is better than Riley in almost every way and is a more complete coach. I have LSU winning and covering the -4.5 spread (easily).
Disclaimer: LSU hasn’t won their opening game since Joe Burrow won every game in 2019.
Sean’s 3rd Pick:
Penn State (-7.5) vs West Virginia
This seems like the case of the media blowing a team up into something they are not. West Virginia has become a trendy pick to win the Big 12 which has somehow warped the public into viewing the Mountaineers as comparable competition to the Nittany Lions. In reality, Penn State is at least 20 points better than West Virginia, no matter where this game is played.
Much of the optimism around WVU stems from their vaunted defensive line. Even so, the Mountaineers were outside the top half of the country in total defense, scoring defense, turnovers forced, rushing defense, and yards per play allowed last year. Penn State, for as much hate as they got last year, finished 12th nationally in scoring offense. New OC Andy Kotelnicki is a massive upgrade and should be able to find mismatches for TE Tyler Warren and RBs Kaytron Allen & Nick Singleton. QB Drew Allar had a 25:2 TD:INT last year, so I don’t expect him to make any mistakes that allow West Virginia to hang around.
Offensively for West Virginia, I have no idea how they plan to slow down a Penn State front that is one of the best in all of college football. Without their two best offensive line starters from last year, WVU might need to lean heavily on the mobility of QB Garrett Greene. He may be able to generate some big plays from outside of the pocket, but I don’t see West Virginia being able to consistently sustain 8+ play scoring drives against this elite, experienced defense.
Don’t believe everything the media tells you – Penn State is far & away the better team than West Virginia. The crowd and Greene’s legs may keep this close into the second half, but I’d be shocked if the Nittany Lions don’t win this by at least two possessions.
Jordan’s 3rd pick
Nebraska (-27.5) vs UTEP
Hey Siri, play Remember the Name by Fort Minor!
Dylan Raiola.
You may remember him from his commitment and decommitment to Georgia. You may remember from his commitment and decommitment to Ohio State. He hopes you’ll definitely remember him at Nebraska (before he transfers to Alabama for all of the NIL next summer… just kidding!).
A player affectionately referred to as Baby Mahomes partially due to his hairstyle but also due to his incredible talent. The 5-Star future NFL player will start as a true freshman for one of the most starved major football fanbases in the country. Nobody wants Dylan Raiola to be the real deal more than Cornhusker fans.
I believe in Dylan Raiola. I think myth making starts somewhere and this could be the beginning of his with a huge performance against UTEP. Matt Rhule and the rest of the staff will be incentivized to let him rip and to peel off as many points as possible. I love the Nebraska cover.
Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Game | O/U | Sean’s Pick | Jordan’s Pick |
Howard at Rutgers (-36.5) | 49.5 | Howard shouldn’t score, Rutgers isn’t 100% healthy U49.5 | Rutgers’ unders are my safe space U49.5 |
UNC (-2.5) at Minnesota | 50.5 | Minnesota is much more than just Darius Taylor MINN +2.5 | 0 trust in points here U50.5 |
FAU at Michigan St (-13.5) | 45.5 | “If you bet, bet the over” – Aidan Chiles O45.5 | Retweet O45.5 |
WMU at Wisconsin (-23.5) | 55.5 | Can’t trust Van Dyke yet WMU +23.5 | Will these teams actually score? U55.5 |
Penn St (-7.5) at WVU | 51.5 | Penn State is better in every facet… right?? PSU -7.5 | “This is our year” season starts now PSU -7.5 |
UConn at Maryland (-20.5) | 44.5 | Isn’t UConn really, really bad? MD -20.5 | Mike Locksley = Offense (no matter the QB) O44.5 |
Illinois State at Iowa (-22.5) | 40.5 | The ride begins U40.5 | I-O-W-A! Under Under, Under!!! U40.5 |
UTEP at Nebraska (-27.5) | 48.5 | Husker D is elite, Raiola is unproven U48.5 | Raiola Covers NEB -27.5 |
FIU at Indiana (-21.5) | 50.5 | Love Coach Cigs (inside) IND -21.5 | Statement Game against FIU week 1 at home? IU-21.5 |
Miami OH at Northwestern (-2.5) | 39.5 | It’s a toss-up, so take the underdog M-OH +2.5 | Will Miami feel at home on Lake Michigan? U39.5 |
Akron at Ohio St (-48.5) | 58.5 | Akron’s won 2 or fewer games in 5 straight seasons OSU -48.5 | Ohio State OVERs are back! O58.5 |
Idaho at Oregon (-44.5) | 62.5 | Easy win OREG -44.5 | More value in the cover. Why are they a TD less than OSU? OREG -44.5 |
Fresno St at Michigan (-21.5) | 45.5 | Fresno might not score, Michigan might not pass U45.5 | Michigan Covers MICH -21.5 |
UCLA (-14.5) at Hawaii | 54.5 | Lots of change at UCLA, long trip, sloppy game U54.5 | New Everything at UCLA –> Slow Start U54.5 |
Weber St at Washington (-26.5) | 52.5 | Very worried about Husky OL WEB +26.5 | Hate this line. UW is a Stay Away but Under if I must U52.5 |
Indiana St at Purdue (-33.5) | 48.5 | Is Larry Bird playing? PURD -33.5 | Run last year’s game back Purd -33.5 |
Eastern Illinois at Illinois (-27.5) | 44.5 | Illinois Overs might be the new Iowa Under O44.5 | We ride O44.5 |
LSU (-4.5) v USC (Las Vegas, NV) | 64.5 | Emotional hedge in case of Big Ten embarrassment LSU -4.5 | Lincoln Riley, prove me wrong LSU -4.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge
Instead of us tracking our records for all of our Big Ten games, we are going to switch our season long challenge this year.
If we tried to pick 15+ games each week we would inevitably end up in that 45%-55% hit rate that isn’t profitable or honestly probably worse. So, we wanted to keep the audience engaged throughout the season by having them follow our FanDuel balance as our $100 season-beginning-deposit grows or dwindles.
Disclaimer: we are not sponsored by FanDuel and will happily rename this segment if a sportsbook would like to sponsor us!!!
Disclaimer no. 2: we are fans of responsible gambling here at The Floor Slap & so should you! We are starting and stopping with this $100 deposit because it is what we can afford. We will not bet more than this so this is what we can mess around with for 16+weeks of bets.
This segment will really be whatever we want it to be. It could be multiple bets each or just one. This part will not be just the Big Ten and we will often try and feature the premier matchups everyone wants a pick for. We will feature props, alternate lines, potential parlays, who knows!
Alright enough is enough, here are our kickoff picks:
Sean’s Week 1 Picks:
Bet 1: Notre Dame ML vs Texas A&M (+126)
Betting: $10 to win $12.60
Betting in the first couple weeks of college football has a lot to do with finding teams the are over-valued. If that isn’t the definition of Texas A&M football over the past decade or so, I don’t know what is.
Notre Dame’s defense will be truly elite in 2024. They have veterans & future NFL draft picks at all three levels to go along with improved depth. Safety Xavier Watts is one of the 10 best defenders in college football and can impact the game in every facet. Aggie QB Conner Weighman is returning from a season-ending injury sustained in game four last year. Weighman put up good numbers before the injury but struggled mightily against the only competent defense he faced (Miami FL). A&M was 50th in both total offense and yards per play last year – I don’t think they will find their footing against the Irish defense.
Notre Dame has plenty to replace on their own offense and is going against an A&M defense that just might live up to its hype. But Riley Leonard’s legs gives Notre Dame’s offense a dimension it has been missing under Marcus Freeman. His combination of size & speed to go along with ample experience should be enough to come up with the plays the Irish need to win the game.
Bet 2: Georgia (-11.5) vs Clemson (-105)
Betting: $21 to win $20
This feels a lot like the Georgia vs Oregon game in 2022 – one that ended in a 46-point Bulldog win.
I don’t expect Cade Klubnik to take a big step forward in his second year as the full-time starter. Clemson’s biggest deficits are at wide receiver and defensive line – which is ironic considering those were the linchpins of their run in the 2010s. Without a legitimate downfield passing attack or the ability to get after Carson Beck, I think this will be a long day for the Tigers.
Georgia is every bit as talented and experienced as they have been for the past three seasons. Even in a tough environment, the Bulldogs should come out in mid-season form.
Bet 3: Parlay (+840) – Iowa vs Illinois St U40.5 (-110), Michigan vs Fresno St U46.5 (-110), Minnesota +2.5 vs UNC (-110), Penn State ML vs WVU (-285)
Betting: $5 to win $42.00
I’m combining a few of my favorite Big Ten picks into a win-big opportunity. But because I don’t want to risk falling too far below $100 in week 1, I’ll only put $5 down here.
When I feel strongly about a Big Ten under, it rarely goes wrong. I think the Iowa and Michigan Unders are both virtual locks. I’d be comfortable even if both totals fell 1.5 points.
I explained above my pick for Minnesota. Getting the better team at home as an underdog seems almost too good to be true. That’s usually a sign that Vegas knows something, but I am going with my gut in the opening week. I’ve been high on the Gophers all off-season, but I’ll still take the points to be safe.
Finally, I threw Penn State ML in because it boosted by odds by about +275. Considering how confident I am in a dominant Penn State victory, that’s worth the additional risk.
Sean’s Total Week 1 Wager: $36
Sean’s Current Balance: $100
Jordan’s Week 1 Picks:
Bet 1: Miami (FL) -4.5 over Florida (+116)
Betting: $9 to win $10.44
Staying conservative in this challenge for week 1, but also getting creative here by taking an alternate line on the Miami vs Florida game adjusted up from -2.5 to -4.5. I am sacrificing the field goal win and cover (see Georgia Tech over FSU) for plus odds so I hope I am right.
I don’t believe in Florida under Billy Napier. I don’t super believe in Mario Cristobal technically, but I 100% believe in Cam Ward over Graham Mertz. Beyond that I can’t add much more than saying this line seemed low to me. SEC supremacy isn’t running thru Gainesville right now.
Jordan’s Total Week 1 Wager: $TBD
Jordan’s Current Balance: $100
That’s it for the 1st week of The Floor Slap’s Betting Guide. We will be back next week. Enjoy the return of College Football and a long Labor Day Weekend!