For this week’s Midweek Madness I go one on one with the Golden Gophers, talk about which conference really disappointed me this year, the (lack of) Big Ten Teams on the Bubble, my favorite future bet, and more College Basketball Observations.
by Jordan Beckley
Welcome back to Midweek Madness!
It’s been a jumbled couple of weeks so my posting schedule is off. I should be back to regularly scheduled programming soon. For now, I will be doing another observation article with Minnesota being the headliner/ISO team to keep up to date.
Anyways with the Super Bowl/all of Football done, it is officially College Basketball season and the march to March Madness has begun. So, let’s talk hoops!
Minnesota is mediocre!
The Gophers’ section was going to be titled “Minnesota isn’t Mediocre” until they blew a double digit lead in the second half of the Iowa game on Sunday.
The loss made me decide to label Minnesota as mediocre and not above it — but given the program’s recent history — being Mediocre is still a development.
Minnesota finished last year in last place of the Big Ten with just 2 wins in 19 games. The Gophers finished in next to last with 4 wins the year before that. And before Ben Johnson took over, Richard Pitino had four straight sub .500 seasons to end his tenure.
It’s been awhile (2016-17 season if you can’t do the math in your head) since Minnesota has been… average.
So, while being 15-8 and 6-6 in conference play isn’t raising any banners, it is a marked improvement of year’s past. Minnesota is currently the 74th ranked KenPom team with a Top-100 offense and defense. Something they haven’t done in the Ben Johnson era.
Minnesota’s competence does provide a slight amount of optimism for the future too. The Gophers have been winning with youth.
Ben Johnson brought in two transfer portal prospects in Mike Mitchell Jr. and Elijah Hawkins who started a bunch of games at Pepperdine and Howard as underclassmen before graduating to Big Ten play. The two juniors are doing well too. Mitchell is the third leading scorer and Hawkins has been a fringe All-Big Ten guard who leads the nation in assists per game.
Freshman Cam Christie was predictably green in his early games, but now has been blossoming in recent play with four straight games of 15+ or more points after amassing 15 starts.
Add in that Dawson Garcia somehow still has eligibility remaining and the recent progress of Pharrel Payne and Braeden Carrington… Minnesota could bring back their best 7 players. Talent + Experience + Player Development= Winning.
It’s hard being a first time head coach. Most coaches need reps at lower schools before they get the big job. Ben Johnson wasn’t afforded the luxury of losing in lower leagues first. He has always been a good recruiter and that’s been evident with his portal and recruitment hauls, but he has had to figure out the coaching part in one of the hardest leagues in the country on the fly.
It can be hard to evaluate whether or not you hired the wrong guy or if the guy just needs more time. If Minnesota had been terrible again this year I imagine that the athletic department might have leaned more to the first option, but maybe Johnson has just needed time. The next 15 months will likely determine which school of thought is right.
Uh is Wisconsin okay?
So unlike their neighbor Minnesota, Wisconsin is on a big losing streak.
The Badgers have lost four in a row and things are looking dicey.
After climbing to first place in the Big Ten at 8-1 in conference play, Wisconsin had also ascended to no. 6 in the nation going 15-2 in their last 17 games.
Greg Gard’s team then dropped one at Nebraska. Understandable. Quite literally everyone in the Big Ten has lost at Pinnacle Bank Arena this year. Then the Badgers lost at the Kohl Center to no. 2 Purdue. Tough to swallow, but hard fought.
The problem now is that cold streak has extended with two losses to bottom of the conference teams in Michigan and Rutgers.
AJ Storr has been able to score, but has shot 1-13 from three in the past three games. X-Factor Max Klesmit has come crashing down to earth averaging just 9 ppg in the four losses on 39% shooting.
Remember the core of Steven Crowl, Tyler Wahl and Chucky Hepburn was a sub .500 Big Ten team last year. It was the combination of a sharpshooting Storr and Klesmit that elevated the Badgers to be a Top-10 team and Big Ten contender.
Greg Gard was once a layup Big Ten Coach of the Year and now is once again fighting off the reply guys calling for him to be fired. The Badgers are struggling and the question lingering is whether or not this is closer to what we should expect from Wisconsin or the big winning streak that got them inside the Top 10.
The Big East is a disappointment
Lost among the talk about how few bids the Big Ten and ACC will get this season is how disappointing the Big East has been as a conference.
Last year, the Big East was the most entertaining conference by a good margin.
Marquette was a huge surprise going from unranked and picked near the bottom to win both the regular season and tournament Title. Creighton was an awesome team for most of the year and was a hand check foul away from making the Final Four. Xavier was ranked highly for most of the season and actually ended up finishing 2nd above most of these teams. Nobody wanted to play at Providence against Ed Cooley on the wrong night. Oh and you had the eventual National Champion in UConn losing 5 of 6 in conference play it was so tough.
This year UConn will not be losing 5 of 6 games. The Huskies are rolling through Big East play and yes UConn is very good, but also it has been showing how bad the rest of the conference is.
The Big East only has 4 Top 40 KenPom teams and the fourth team besides Creighton, Marquette and UConn is actually…. 13-11 Villanova (who is the 359th luckiest team according to the site) at 34.
Creighton has all the talent in the world, but has not been the Top 10 team and Big East challenger we expected. Georgetown did not experience a divine restoration under Cooley. Providence has been desperately fighting to show they are a tournament team since the Bryce Hopkins season ending injury. Xavier has cratered. Butler and Seton Hall have been fun surprises, but are more Bubble teams than Top 25 teams.
The playstyle might still be pretty fun night to night, but the title race has been dreadfully obvious.
After some early stumbles for Marquette have put them 2 games back, the Golden Eagles now have to win at UConn on Saturday and the return game in Wisconsin on March 6th for anyone to have even a shot at topping the Huskies.
Virginia vs North Carolina is suddenly looming
I wrote about how Virginia is solidifying themselves in the ACC last week and now they’ve won their past eight games in conference.
Meanwhile, North Carolina escaped with a win against Miami but dropped games to Georgia Tech and at home to Clemson recently. The Tarheels inconsistent play has opened the door for the Cavs.
Tony Bennett’s team is only a game back from Hubert Davis’ team and the teams could be going in opposite directions. Virginia and North Carolina play Saturday the 24th and a lot can happen before then but it could be a game that could decide the conference.
My Favorite Conference Winner Bet
Some Conference Winner bets have seemingly already been wrapped up (Purdue and UConn) while others (SEC, Big 12) are just heating up.
There are some tasty lines for teams near the top like South Carolina at +750 despite being tied for first with Alabama. Or a fools bet like Bill Self and Kansas being at +800 before their loss to Texas Tech last night. But my favorite conference winner future right now is Colorado State at +950.
The Mountain West currently has a 4-way tie for 2nd all a game behind Utah State. Colorado State (winners of four straight) are in a great position to win it. Th Rams have a chance to pull even when they play the first place Aggies this Saturday. If CSU can win two of their next three (SDSU, Utah State, New Mexico) they have four games against the bottom half of the conference to close the season. The only team with fewer top 5 matchups left is Boise State who Colorado State just beat by 13.
Colorado State is the third ranked Mountain West team in KenPom and is 9 spots above Utah State. Is San Diego State ranked higher and have an easier path to win it? Yes, but the odds reflect that. CSU at +950 is the best bet to place to balance the risk and reward.
There aren’t really any Big Ten Teams on the Bubble
I was going to write an article this month about the Big Ten Teams on the bubble and their path to make the tournament and well… they all lost.
Indiana has fallen apart losing 5 of their past 7, all but 1 of them by double digits.
Iowa can’t win more than one game in a row and is 0-6 in Quad 1 games (and have lost all of them by double digits).
I believed Maryland was getting back into the Tournament discussion and then they lost three straight to Michigan State, Rutgers and Ohio State to cement the Terps’ NIT status.
Other bubble teams have played their way in. Michigan State’s profile is strong enough that they should be comfortably in. Nebraska might not have to win a road game if they go 10-0 at home. Northwestern might have some erratic losses, but should be comfortably in with wins over Illinois and Purdue.
So… there isn’t really anything to debate. It’s no fun to ponder if Minnesota and Penn State are in the next next four out or not. The Big Ten seems to be locked in as a six bid league.
Award Winning Wings
A rotating selection of made up superlatives and awards. Named fondly after how every restaurant has ‘award winning wings’
Wait What upset of the Week
With all due respect to Rutgers’ upset of Wisconsin, I want to focus on a pair of wait what? upsets in the SEC.
First, let’s discuss Florida upsetting Auburn 81-65 this past Saturday. The Gators secured their second Quad 1 victory when beating the Tigers following their upset win at Kentucky. Despite Todd Golden’s 2-7 Quad 1 record the Gators are 31st in NET ranking and tied for 5th in the SEC after winning 5 of their past 6.
Auburn wasn’t the only disappointing SEC favorite on Saturday though as Tennessee lost to Texas A&M 69-85. The Aggies all of a sudden are also tied for 5th in the SEC after winning 5 of their past 6. A healthy Boots Radford and Wade Taylor IV is a force.
Auburn and Tennessee losing also drops them both a game back in the loss column from Alabama and South Carolina. This is the best conference race this season supplanting the Big East and (sorry, not sorry) the Big 12.
Ethan Morton Three Point Tracker
We don’t have an Ethan Morton update as he is still 4-17 (23.5%) after not shooting a three for three games… but we might need to rename this section.
Reigning National Player of the Year and 4th leading scorer all time Zach Edey did something he’s never done before this weekend.
Purdue’s 7 foot center banking in his first career three to go up 28 points against Indiana is maybe the most disrespectful moment of the rivalry since Bob Knight threw a chair onto the court. I was there in Mackey for the first time in several years (thanks Covid) and this is up there for the best/loudest moment I’ve witnessed in that special arena.
It was such a fourth wall breaking moment that Purdue stopped playing defense and Indiana almost covered the 17.5 point spread.
If Edey does hit another three this season, I will officially change this segment to the Zach Edey three point tracker.
Did Louisville win a game this week?
Yes!
My posting schedule has been erratic so the Cardinals have actually won two(!) games since our last update. The Fightin’ Kenny Payne’s beat Florida State 101-92 and Georgia Tech 79-67. Louisville has now cracked the top half of KenPom by being ranked 164 of 362. A proud program has returned.
No Explanation Power Rankings
I am just the humble mouthpiece for the No Explanation College Basketball Committee, who release their weekly Big Ten Rankings to me. I provide their rankings with… no explanation.
The legacy of the Big Ten West lives on in these No Explanation Power Rankings.