An Illinois Choke Job, Buckeyes’ Big Upset, UConn Falls, Houston strangles Iowa State and much more. Catch up on the Madness of College Basketball along with ISOs on Northwestern and Iowa.
by Jordan Beckley
The Iso
So to make up for some lost time we are running a high pick and roll on two teams this week. I’m calling up the screen and I am going to take Northwestern and Iowa on a drive.
Let’s first cover Northwestern.
The Wildcats – barring a traumatic end of season collapse – are firmly in the tournament for the second straight season. It would be the first time in Northwestern history making March Madness back to back years. If Northwestern wins 3 of their last few games (minimum of 7 opportunities with the regular season, the Big Ten Tourney and Big Dance) they will reach 21 wins for the third time ever.
All of those 21+ win seasons have been under Chris Collins. And all three of those seasons will be the only times Northwestern has made the tournament. You can make an argument that this team is the best one of any of the three.
I would have felt more strongly about that take if it weren’t for Ty Berry’s season ending prematurely.
Still, most of what you might have liked about last year’s team is still there this year but better.
Boo Buie is somehow still playing College Basketball and isn’t just an All-Big Ten lock, but an All-American candidate. Brooks Barnhizer has graduated from 6th man of the year candidate to the second star averaging 14 ppg and 7 rpg in a hefty 36 minutes a game. Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg is a much better player than Robbie Beran. Before his injury Ty Berry had turned into a Chris Kyle level sniper at 43.3% from deep on high volume.
In an unexpected turn, Northwestern has been winning this year with offense not defense. Buie has orchestrated the 35th best offense according to Kenpom compared to the 88th from last year. The super senior guard has scored 15+ points in 20 of their 26 games. In wins, usually two of Barnhizer, Berry and Langborg chip in with a big night.
The improved offense has come at a cost with a more muted defense. Last year’s top 25 defense has fallen to the 70-80 range in Kenpom after (Co-)Big Ten Defensive player of the Year Chase Audige pursued professional opportunities.
However, the downgraded defense has only hurt the Cats a couple times (think the Chicago State game) as this is the first great offense in Northwestern history. In the past 12 seasons, Northwestern has never been higher than the 70s in Kenpom adjusted offense. Having an elevated, top 35 offense also increases Chris Collins’ squads chances to compete.
The Cats have impressive wins over Michigan State, Dayton, Illinois and no. 1 Purdue. By all means this is finally a Northwestern team capable of making noise in the tournament. Now, they aren’t capable of stringing enough wins to make the Final Four, but this is a team capable of slaying a Goliath in the 2nd round and making their first ever Sweet 16.
With Ty Berry gone, this Northwestern team knows what it needs to do.
The lineups are going to be extremely thin. Starters will have to pull 30+ minutes regularly. Nick Martinelli has already graduated to the starting lineup and succeeded so far. Langborg and Barnhizer can’t have off-days. Matt Nicholson will need to put more pressure on teams offensively.
It is rare for College teams to have a defined identity. Perhaps nobody in College Basketball has a more defined team structure than Northwestern.
Chris Collins, Boo Buie and the Cats know who they are and what they are doing. The Cats are certified giant killers and the no. 1 or 2 seed that falls on the same side of the bracket as them should be scared.
Alright, now let’s cover Iowa.
Not every team in College Basketball is defined by what happens in that particular season.
I think some optimistic Hawkeye fans might have had high hopes for a Tony Perkins lead squad –but by mid-December after three straight double digit losses to Purdue, Iowa State and Michigan — I think those hopes were dashed.
This season was always a changing of the guard for Fran McCaffery and Iowa.
Iowa had one of its best runs of success the past half decade or so powered by three NBA players in Luka Garza and the Murry Brothers. Those teams had been stabilized by veterans Jordan Bohannon, Connor McCaffery and Tony Perkins.
This year’s Iowa team didn’t have an NBA player in-waiting as a star. The stable vets were just that, stable players not stars.
What was more important was the next crop of Iowa players.
Sophomores Dasonte Bowen and Josh Dix had tough Freshman campaigns often being buried. Those two would have an opportunity this year to prove themselves. Coach McCaffery had an exciting class coming in with Brock Harding, Owen Freeman, Pryce Sandfort and Ladji Dembele.
After a disappointing stretch to start the season, perspectives have likely shifted to what can this team become rather than what it is right now.
The good news? The crop yield is looking very positive now.
Iowa just strung together their two most impressive wins of the season an overtime win against Wisconsin and a road victory over Michigan State.
Those two wins have pulled them up to 62 in NET ranking and 8-8 in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are still a longshot to make the tournament and that’s okay.
I think if I am ranking Big Ten teams for optimism of NEXT year… Rutgers is definitely first, but Iowa would not be far behind them. If we are doing the Bright future/departing production convo, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State and Northwestern all should have a ton of lost production. While Minnesota and Iowa are teams that should bring most of their team back (or add two of the top 3 recruits if you are Rutgers).
Quickly, let’s hit on what all Iowa can bring back next year if Tournament dreams aren’t realized.
Star of the show Payton Sandfort has another year left. Sandfort seems to finally have elevated to be the star for the Hawkeyes. In his last 8 games, the junior has averaged 19.4 ppg on 63% from 2 and 37% from range. His shotmaking is incredible as those percentages don’t tell the tale of how difficult his average shot is. Opposing teams know he’s the guy and he is still shooting like that.
Another player emerging for Iowa is Josh Dix. Dix is a sharpshooter averaging 42% from three on the year, but also is well rounded enough to drop 17 points in the win over Wisconsin going 7-9 from within the arc.
On the other side, Dasonte Bowen has went from a starter early in the season to barely in the rotation now. Bowen is shooting below 30% from the field in Big Ten play and averaging less than 2 points per game.
Pryce Sandfort has been a little disappointing too. Payton’s younger brother has struggled scoring and seen his minutes dip. However, you can still see his potential and trust that with his family he will get there.
Speaking of getting there, you can see the flashes with Ladji Dembele and Brock Harding. Dembele was incredibly raw coming into this year and you can see the development McCaffery has already had on him. In their game against Michigan State, Demebele’s box score was unimpressive, but he made some really good passes for two assists, played more instinctually and had confidence (even if he went 0-4 from 2pt) looking for his offense.
Harding was a highlight tape legend coming out of high school, but had obvious questions about his size. The scoring maestro stuff hasn’t translated yet, but watch him enough you know the handle and speed are good enough for this level. Once Perkins is gone, Harding will have major minutes to fill.
Am I forgetting anyone? Oh yeah, the guy who will end the season with the most Freshman of the Weeks in Big Ten history in Owen Freeman. Yeah, the freshman class this year has been pretty miserable across the Big Ten, but Owen Freeman will be a deserving winner of the Freshman of the Year even in a normal year.
Freeman is averaging 11 ppg and 7 rpg in Big Ten play on nearly 68% shooting. Freeman is a factor defensively with nearly 2 blocks a game and has recorded 5 double doubles. Freeman’s crown jewel performance was dropping 20 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 blocks against the ultra-experienced Wisconsin frontline.
Freeman should be in line to be an All-Big Ten candidate next year. So will Payton Sandfort. Pryce could maybe become the sixth man that his older brother was as a Sophomore. Josh Dix is ready to be the man on the wing. Brock Harding and Dembele are primed for bigger roles next year.
With a brutal ending stretch featuring Penn State, playing at Northwestern and two games vs Illinois, Iowa will either play their way in or out of March Madness. Either way, Iowa fans should be excited about what’s to come after this season.
Good Game Bad Game
Loosely defined as a weekly game where I name one (or more) good game and bad game from a player, coach, ref, mascot, towel boy, jumbotron operator or anybody in CBB.
Good Game: Jamal Shead, Steven Ashworth
Perhaps no single player in the country is as important to his team’s success as Jamal Shead is for Houston. I get it. Zach Edey is awesome (on both ends), but it’s wrong (and disrespectful) to say Purdue’s success is only on him when Braden Smith is the puppet master of the no. 2 offense. Shead lead Houston to a win over no.6 Iowa State on Monday in a glorified rock fight that ended 73-65.
Houston’s defense is unrelenting, their team rebounding is gruelingly physical, and their offense?…. leaves a lot to be desired. At the beginning of the year it looked like LJ Cryer would be the savior of the Cougar’s big weakness and be a consistent bucket getter, but he has been more On-or-Off night kind of guy.
So when these low scoring affairs get tight, Senior guard Jamal Shead has to be the hero. In Big 12 play, Shead has averaged 16.8 ppg, 5.7 apg, 3.8rpg and his deflection filled defense has created more steals (2.2pg) than he turns it over (1.8 TOpg).
The deciding moment of Houston’s season will almost certainly come at the hands of Shead and Kelvin Sampson wouldn’t want it any other way.
Creighton tore apart UConn on Tuesday 85-66 in Omaha getting revenge for the dismantling loss in Storrs back in mid-January. The win cements the ceiling that Creighton has always been capable of. To reach that ceiling the Bluejays will need Steven Ashworth to blend in like he did on Tuesday. Ashworth hit 5 threes on 13 attempts on his way to charting 20 points, 3 assists, and 7 rebounds.
Coach McDermott and Creighton have had struggles figuring out how a team full of vets like Ryan Kalkbrenner and Trey Alexander can mix bench production and a new starting point guard in Ashworth after longtime running mate Ryan Nembhard left this summer. If they can find that right formula, Creighton has the ability to beat anybody in the country.
Bad Game: Fletcher Loyer, Incarnate Word
I will hit more on Ohio State’s big upset over Purdue later, but Fletcher Loyer had a bad game in Columbus. The Sophomore went 1-7 from the field to continue a rough stretch of play.
The loss sparked debates on personnel decisions of Painter (because of course it does) and Loyer was a prime target. Last season, Loyer hit a freshman wall and the Boilers weren’t quite the same going 8-5 from February 1st on. Purdue needs Loyer to be better. Let’s see how he performs against Rutgers tonight.
Remember the Malice in the Palace? Well, we didn’t quite see a repeat of that but we did get a … scuffle? at the Incarnate Word Texas A&M Commerce game.
Not a great look for College Basketball, but also not that good of a fight either. You can’t be in that middle ground of poor behavior, but also not actually being tough. Still, the Southland Conference found a way to suspend 8 players from this fracas.
Award Winning Wings
A rotating selection of made up superlatives and awards. Named fondly after how every restaurant has ‘award winning wings’
Wait What? Upset of the Week
Just a few days after firing Head Coach Chris Holtmann, Ohio State had their toughest game of the season against no. 2 Purdue and Zach Edey.
Many teams would have felt that this was a lost season and given up. It seemed like that might be possible as Purdue stormed out to an 8-0 lead to tipoff the game. But the Buckeyes pulled together and rallied.
Ohio State needed a full team effort (11 players saw meaningful minutes) to corral the National Player of the Year and the first place Boilers. Bruce Thornton punished Purdue’s drop coverage for 22 points, Jamison Battle ignited in the second half for almost all of his 19 points including three momentum defining 3-pointers, and Zed Key swiped away a victory from Edey and Purdue.
It was a win that meant so much to an OSU team who needed it. This is the type of win that could bond the team together and keep many of the players from entering the the transfer portal. If you need convincing how much this meant just look at Interim Coach Jake Diebler after the game.
Purdue’s last two games in Columbus have been this loss and the loss to Fairleigh Dickinson. I attended both. I might skip the next game that my favorite team plays in Ohio’s Capital.
Watch Out Below Award
Poor Jordan Geronimo wasn’t ready for AJ Storr here…
Recruiting Update
Maryland lost the above game to Wisconsin, but I think most fans don’t care after 5-Star Center Derik Queen committed to the Terps on Wednesday.
Queen is the 2nd highest rated recruit in Maryland history according to 247sports.com and is the highest rated one of Kevin Willard’s career. Queen is such a great big man prospect. Great hands, advanced footwork, soft touch, and vision… a total package.
The Baltimore, Maryland native chose the Terps over Kansas or playing with his Montverde teammate Liam McNeeley at Indiana.
Reggie Miller Choke Award
If Reggie Miller was watching the Illinois Penn State game we know what symbol he would have made.
The Illini spent most of the second half battling with the Nittany Lions and preventing them from getting fully back into it. Illinois answered every PSU run and kept them at bay by 5-10 points over and over again.
With 1:17 left, Marcus Domask made two free throws to go up 89-82. From there… chaos.
Penn State actually didn’t score on the next possession and then chose not to foul down 7 with 40 or so seconds, Terrence Shannon Jr. misses badly and Jameel Brown is off to the races. Brown has 3-on-1 and pulls up for three instead of looking for an easy layup.
Bottoms. 89-85.
Then a Terrence Shannon Jr. turnover on the inbounds leads to an easy Puff Johnson layup. 89-87 – 29 seconds left.
Illinois can’t inbound the ball and takes timeout. After that timeout they pass it to Domask in the corner, he’s trapped and uses their last timeout.
Third time is the charm for the Illini and they get it over halfcourt and Penn State fouls Coleman Hawkins. Hawkins a 80%+ free throw shooter misses BOTH free throws (his first attempts of the night) and Penn State crashes down the court with 10 seconds and Nick Kern pulls up from deep and……. is FOULED!!!!
Kern drains all three free throws (22 points on the night). 90-89 Penn State.
Illinois with no timeouts chucks it in Justin Harmon drives gets a pretty good look on a runner. No Good.
Penn State wins!!!!!
It was a magical night for Penn State in a historic return to Rec Hall just days after kicking leading scorer Kanye Clary off the team.
For Illinois, it was a missed opportunity coming off Purdue’s loss to OSU to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten Title. Now, the Illini will once again need help to even earn a share of the Trophy.
Ethan Morton 3 Point Tracker
Not only has Ethan Morton not made a three since our last update (3-13 now at 23.1%), but he hasn’t scored in six games. Morton hasn’t made a three since January 23rd at this point. I’m starting to wonder if he isn’t out there for his offense.
Anyways, despite the loss to Ohio State, Purdue is still UNDEFEATED when Morton scores. An 8-0 correlation is more than a pattern. Painter might want to think about running a set play for Morton on the first Out-of-Timeout scenario when Morton is in the ballgame.
Did Louisville win a game this week?
Nah.
With Chris Holtmann fired, Kenny Payne has now outlasted two major head coaches this season. Cardinal fans have to be wondering what needs to happen to make it happen.
No Explanation Power Rankings
I am just the humble mouthpiece for the No Explanation College Basketball Committee, who release their weekly Big Ten Rankings to me. I provide their rankings with… no explanation.
