It’s time to trust Houston, don’t fall for Kentucky, but also believe in Illinois & other things I think I know heading into March Madness. Will some be proven right? Sure. Others will surely be completely wrong.
by Jordan Beckley
It is officially March and we are starting to more firmly understand teams, players, conference races etc.
Now, the beauty of March Madness is that 48 hours into it a good portion of what we think we know will be proven wrong! But, let’s take stock of different things across the country as we near the Tournament that will surely prove my opinions wrong.
1. Not trusting Houston’s offense is a me problem
Earlier in the year when the Cougars were setting records on KenPom for their defense and adjusted efficiency margin, I did what any sane normal person does, and I watched them with the intention of tearing them down and finding a way to say, “they’re not that good.”
I watched them lose to (a then unranked) Iowa State team in Hilton Coliseum. Houston was incapable of scoring the basketball and would have won if they could make literally just one or two baskets in the final 3 minutes. I didn’t recognize how good Iowa State is overall or how awesome their defense is too.
I held that performance against them and clung to the idea that the Cougar offense would fail them in the Tournament.
The past two weeks or so have proven that the idea of Houston’s offense isn’t good enough is wrong. Jamal Shead is an All-American and one of the 2-3 guards you can trust the most in the country. Not trusting Houston is a “me problem.”
The Cougars have won 7 straight games since their loss at Allen Fieldhouse. Shead is averaging 16.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.1rpg and 2.9 spg. Houston avenged it’s loss to Iowa State, won in extra time at Baylor, and this weekend Shead had the exclamation point with a buzzer beater in Oklahoma.
Houston’s offense is top 15 in the country and they have scored 73 or more in 11 of their 13 Big 12 victories. In year’s past you could blindly say “I just don’t trust Houston’s offense” and you would sound smart and probably be right… but not this year.
2. The Cam Christie decision could decide Minnesota’s season next year
Listen, I get it. Most people are not tuning into Minnesota games this season. The Golden Gophers are on the periphery of the outside edge of Bubble talk. This is stretching the concept of this article, but Minnesota has been one of the better stories in a down year of Big Ten Basketball and Cam Christie needs to be talked about.
Ben Johnson’s team is 6-4 in their last 10 Big Ten games earning their way to be tied for 7th in Big Ten standings with Michigan State. A major part of that push has been freshman Cam Christie’s emergence.
In that stretch, Christie is averaging 15ppg, 2.5 apg, 4.1rpg on 45% from 3 on a high volume of 6 attempts a game. Christie is a 6’6″ mobile wing who is clearly a strong shooter, but also can put the ball on the ground and do things like this.
Minnesota is near the top of the Next Year Optimism Power Rankings for the conference if they can bring everyone back. Their backcourt will be stable with Elijah Hawkins, Mike Mitchell and Braeden Carrington almost all certainly staying. All-Big Ten level forward Dawson Garcia apparently still has eligibility too? Not 100% on that, but either way, the big swing for Minnesota would be keeping their swing man Christie.
In a weak draft year, Christie has the build of the NBA prototype all teams want. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him shoot up draft boards.
He will certainly test the waters, but given his brother might have left one year too early, maybe Cam comes back for an All-Big Ten run and powers his team like the Murray Brothers did for Iowa.
3. Kentucky is the most entertaining team & will not succeed in March
Here are the scores of Kentucky’s last three games:
- 117-95 W over Alabama
- 91-89 W over Mississippi State
- 111-102 W over Arkansas
Yes, Kentucky is a high powered, thrilling offensive team. And between DJ Wagner, Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, etc. it might be the most talented roster in College Basketball. Still, the Wildcats are also doomed to fail.
The reason defense wins championships is because in a six game span you are guaranteed to have an off night offensively. Defense doesn’t have off nights. With a good defense you can still win on off nights.
Kentucky’s defense can’t stop anyone. Mississippi State and Arkansas are both bottom of the SEC offenses. The Wildcats give up the 350th most shots a game partially due to giving up 12 offensive rebounds a game (344th worst). They give up a million threes (25.6 attempts pg) and the percentages indicate that they have been getting lucky so far.
UK won’t survive in March. Leave players on good, tournament teams open and they will make shots. Give them 12 second chance opportunities and you will get buried.
Kentucky scored 30 points in the last 6 minutes and 56 seconds of regulation against Arkansas. It’s hard to pick against that firepower, but don’t let the NBA talent distract you from the terrible defense.
4. Creighton is Fool’s Gold
Speaking of teams to not fall for when filling out your bracket, let’s talk about Creighton.
I’ve fallen hard for Creighton for going on 16 months since last year’s Maui Invitational. There is lots to love in their versatile core of Trey Alexander, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Baylor Scheierman.
Creighton has proven they can beat the best competition too. The Bluejays just beat Marquette, they handed UConn one of the Huskies’ three losses and beat Alabama in non-conference play.
But, Creighton is fool’s gold.
The talent is there but ever since Ryan Nembhard transferred this offseason, it hasn’t all come together. Steven Ashworth is playing his best ball as a Bluejay, but it still isn’t the same. Yes, there are a ton of the same players as last year’s team that was a hand check foul from the Final Four, but it is a tremendously different team.
Creighton has obvious weaknesses. Their bench is essentially nonexistent producing around 10 points a game combined. The defense is pretty good, but it doesn’t create any turnovers whatsoever. They have forced 235 turnovers on the year, literally the lowest in the NCAA. Every possession the opponent has a shot at making a basket. No stolen possessions.
The Bluejays don’t foul eithe, giving up the fewest FTs of any team in CBB. There is an overreliance on forcing teams off the three point line and funneling to shot blocker Kalkbrenner who averages 3 swats a game. Still, Creighton is at the mercy of hot shooting teams when they don’t create turnovers.
To recap, Creighton’s top talent has been inconsistent. They have no spark coming off the bench. Their defense relies on the opponent not having a hot night (that happens a lot in March Madness btw). They don’t steal possessions via turnovers and rely completely on a big who if he gets in foul trouble they don’t have a facsimile to replace him.
When filling out your bracket, you will look around for a “lower” seed to go far, look past Creighton.
You will be tempted by the Marquette and UConn wins. Just remember Marquette didn’t have Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro and that the Bluejays lost to St. Johns a few days after beating UConn. Sure, Creighton could make the Final Four, but there are so many more scenarios where they lose early.
5. Illinois has a Final Four Ceiling even with a flawed defense
Illinois offense is awesome.
Earlier in the year I wondered if Illinois had a half court problem where they could only score with Isolations by Marcus Domask and Terrence Shannon Jr free throws. I was wrong.
I was wrong in thinking that Domask Isos and relying on TSJ drawing fouls isn’t elite offense.
Illinois scored 105 points this week at 1.6 points per possession against Minnesota and dropped another 91 points at the Kohl Center on Saturday.
Yes, Illinois’ 102nd ranked defense is troublesome. But they have proven over and over again they can just outscore you.
The Illini are doing so in a more trustworthy way than Kentucky for instance. Shannon is a likely 2nd team All-American and is averaging 22.2 points on 57% on 2s and 81.1% on 9.3 FT attempts a game since coming back from suspension. Domask is a certifiable no. 2 with 30 point performances against FAU, Norhtwestern and Wisconsin. His shot difficulty is so much higher than the average players and he still is making 54.3% of his 2pt attempts.
Illinois shoots a ton of threes at a good clip but lives at the line to counteract any cold spells from deep. They have two of the best “go get a bucket” guys in the country and have a versatile, switchable roster.
Illinois defense can and should get better. Their offense is the best of the best. The Illini have faced a ton of adversity this season, but they are playing their best ball at exactly the right time.
6. The SEC (not the Big 12) is the conference to go all in on
Every year when filling out brackets you decide to ride one or two conferences and fade one or two other conferences.
For years, people all faded the Mountain West. Last year, San Diego State made the Final Four. This year the Mountain West is looking at 5 or 6 bids. You can fade them if you want, but another option people have been considering fading is the Big 12.
College Basketball twitter has turned it’s wrath towards the extremely weak non-conference scheduling of the Big 12. The accusations of gaming the system to allow a conference to beat itself up with 8 teams within two games of .500 records (and just two teams above that group) while still somehow improving NET rankings is compelling.
Picking which conference to fade is more personal preference. Telling you which conference to ride is easier to analyze.
I think the clear choice of conference to guide your picks is the SEC.
I know I just said to pick against Kentucky, but that’s the best part. Kentucky is like the 5th or 6th best team in the conference. Tennessee is a legitimate Title threat not just Final Four team. South Carolina will be a better team than where they are seeded. So will Florida. If things fall right (including shots) Alabama and Auburn are both capable of Final Fours and both should make Sweet Sixteens.
Stick to just those teams and fade Kentucky and you could have a nice bracket recipe… or it could be the wrong pick and the Big 12 reigns supreme.
7. People will be mad at Purdue for NOT being upset
After the past three tournament results of North Texas, St. Peter’s and Fairleigh Dickinson, there is a warranted narrative about the Boilermakers.
All of those Purdue teams had noticeable weaknesses. A ton of youth against North Texas, no point guard, a bad defense and a weak bench against St. Peter’s and a freshman backcourt duo and questionable shooting against FDU.
The Boilers have none of that this year. Purdue doesn’t have definable weaknesses. They have a top tier offense lead by the best player in the country. They have an upper tier defense that demands a pretty specific skillset to beat. Their backcourt is one of the best with Braden Smith making the leap to be one of the best PGs in the country. The Backcourt has plenty of experience with Lance Jones and Smith and Fletcher Loyer each approaching their 60th start.
Oh and don’t forget that this Purdue team has taken on and beaten the best teams in the country:
- Beat Tennessee (1st place in SEC)
- Beat Marquette (2nd place Big East)
- Beat Alabama (2nd place in SEC)
- Beat Arizona (1st place PAC-12)
- Beat Illinois (2nd place Big Ten)
Purdue will take on Illinois on Tuesday for a shot to be outright Big Ten Champions. If they drop that game, they still clinch that sole title by beating Wisconsin in Mackey on Sunday. The Boilers would be the first repeat outright Big Ten Champs since 2006-08 Ohio State stretch.
Plenty of people will pick Purdue to lose early in March. Some will even pick the no.16 seed again. Believe it or not, by putting what will likely be the no. 1 overall seed in the Final Four you might actually be differentiating your bracket.
8. Virginia should not be in March Madness
UVA has had a rough February and early March.
The Cavs lost in Durham 48-73 to Duke on Saturday night. The loss to the Blue Devils was the 4th in their past six games. Virginia had also put up less than 50 total points in four of those six games (somehow winning against Wake with 49 points to be 1-3 in those games).
Virginia’s offense has often been made fun of, but this season’s offense is honestly terrible. The Cavs have the 9th ranked KenPom defense and are ranked 70th overall because of their 190th (!!!) ranked offense.
Tony Bennett’s team does an admirable job beating inferior opponents (undefeated in Quad 3&4 games), but they have no real signature win. The Wahoos are 2-6 in Quad 1 opportunites getting their ass kicked in all 6 of those losses. Their two Quad 1 wins are a neutral win over Florida in November and a 1 point win at Clemson. Which are we sure Clemson is really a Quad 1 win?
Virginia just flat out does not belong on the court with the top competition. UVA is still projected to make it, but I hope they don’t. The Cavs might win one tournament game against a 7 or 8 seed, but they don’t deserve a cinderella shot like Providence, Utah, Iowa, or Texas A&M who are much more fun.
9. There is no making sense of Alabama, Baylor or Kansas
As we approach March, you will have to make decisions on teams. Are they frauds? Are they dark horses? Are they quietly getting hot or subtly about to take a nosedive?
Perhaps no teams in the country will have you second guessing results and box scores like Alabama, Baylor and Kansas.
The erratic almost bi-polar results of these teams will frustrate you endlessly.
Alabama has a terrific and unassailable statistical profile, and also lost 5 games in non-conference. Kansas beat Tennessee, UConn and Houston but lost to UCF, West Virginia, and Kansas State. It’s felt like it has been a pretty bad year for Baylor… they are 3rd place in the Big 12.
The best advice I can give is to not try and make sense of these teams. Carefully inspect the draw of each of them and try to guess which one will choke.
Teams like these truly show how little we all know about College Basketball and how unpredictable the sport can be.
I’ve put in the hours this season of watching tape and studying the stats and these are some of the things I think I know as we near March Madness.
Last year, I predicted an early exit for Marquette, noted a streaking UConn (even with their Big East tourney exit), and had future Final Four team Miami at the top of my Love list.
Of course, I also fully trusted Arizona before their first round exit, had Purdue losing in the Elite Eight, and thought Alabama would be in the National Championship.
Single Elimination magic is why the NCAA trademarked the name March Madness. So, take my 9 things I think I know with a grain of salt and prepare yourself to be totally right, utterly wrong and somewhere in the middle on all your picks.