by Jordan Beckley
Welcome to the 2nd Annual Premature Power Rankings!
Immediately after the National Championship buzzer sounds all the major publications will release their Way-Too-Early Power Rankings, but I finished prematurely! Nice. Still a good joke a year later.
Besides the catchy Title or beating the crowd, the reason I do this to avoid seeing other rankings and having those influence mine.
Think about how when you see that first mock draft you set expectations for players. If another mock draft comes out a month later and a guy in the first round is now a 2nd rounder, you perceive him as falling based on the anchor you set of him as a first rounder from the first evaluation.
Psychology is cool sometimes.
So, with this list I will try and avoid groupthink and having an ESPN article or a Bleacher Report list change my evaluation. Instead, I want to think more critically and decide personally how high I should put a super young, but talented team like Rutgers vs. a brings-more-back team like Texas Tech.
The added bonus of this list is that the transfer portal accelerates the article’s expiration date exponentially, so check back in throughout the dregs of the offseason for more updates as rosters settle in.
Enough of the prelude, let’s rank teams!
1. Duke
The number 1 observation from going through and try to rank teams is next year is a not a year full of “Brings everybody back” teams.
Mercifully, there will be an exodus of Covid-Super-Seniors before the last batch departs after next season. Eligibility and return status can be a question mark and impossible to keep track of. We don’t have to worry about this with next year’s number 1 team.
Jon Scheyer has one of Duke’s best classes ever coming in and well that is saying something given that school’s history. The Blue Devils have no. 1 overall recruit Cooper Flagg as the headliner. The 6’9″ Forward from Maine will undoubtedly be dubbed a white Kevin Durant as every skilled skinny dude is some derivative of Durant, but Flagg brings a talent pedigree back to Duke on the same scale as Paolo Banchero and Zion Williamson did.
The Blue Devils also have a pair of 5-star wings in Isaiah Evans and Kon Knueppel. Patrick Ngongba will bring some punch at the center position this year’s Blue Devil’s team sorely missed and so will the no.3 overall ranked recruit Khaman Maluach who is a 7’1″ big from NBA Academy Africa.
Throw in some combination of returnees between Tyreese Proctor, Caleb Foster, Sean Stewart, and TJ Power and there is no doubt about which roster is the most talented next year. Whether they succeed up to that talent level is usually the question with Duke.
2. Kansas
Bill Self in his post-game presser after the loss to Gonzaga in the Round of 32 said he had been looking forward to next season for about a month.
Injuries and a weak bench doomed this year’s Kansas team, but reinforcements are coming. The Jayhawks have the no. 2 overall class with their headliner being ultra athlete, 5-star center Flory Bidunga. 4-stars Labaron Philon and Rakease Passmore are two more Top-50 recruits that will bolster Self’s team. And that’s before we even get into 5-star Liam McNeeley, who’s decommitment from Indiana was strongly linked to him eventually ending up at Lawrence. Sidenote, I would love nothing more if Passmore was an inherently selfish gunner and his name was a fun bit of basketball irony.
Somehow, Dajuan Harris Jr. and KJ Adams were only sophomores and will both likely run it back. Unfortunately, Hunter Dickinson still has eligibility and his stay-or-go decision along with borderline 1st round pick Johnny Furphy could push them up or down the offseason rankings.
Oh and Self has already grabbed Zeke Mayo and Riley Kugel from the transfer portal so keep an eye on more firepower from that side too.
Kansas has been a staple in the preseason top 5 under Self. No reason to think next year will be different.
3. UConn
Dan Hurley and the Huskies are quickly joining Duke and Kansas as regulars on the top of the charts.
As I write this I don’t know if UConn has repeated as National Champs, but it certainly seems likely. No matter what happens in Phoenix, UConn will be rebuilding with Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer exhausting their eligibility and Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle off to the NBA.
Still, Dan Hurley is worth a top spot by himself. I’m predicting that swiss army knife Alex Karaban will be back next year and that 4-star recruits Soloman Ball, Jaylin Stewart, Jayden Ross and Youssouf Singare from the ’23 class will all take bigger roles. Two more 4-stars will join up too in Ahmad Nowell and Isaiah Abraham. Oh, and don’t forget Samson Johnson and his insane bounce will be on full display as a starter.
Plus as much as Dan Hurley made fun of the transfer portal at a recent press conference, his roster has been built by them with Spencer, Newton, and Hassan Diarra all coming from the portal. UConn figures to be a looming presence in the portal.
I physically cannot put UConn lower than this no matter how much they lose. Hurley runs the most complex offense in College Basketball and it manufactures points. Heading into the Final Four UConn has the no.1 KenPom offense while quietly being ass at shooting threes. What if next year’s team can actually shoot?
4. Auburn
You’re putting the team that lost to Yale at no. 4? Yeah! I am so shut up!
Auburn was a staple atop the KenPom rankings all season. The Tigers finished 2nd in the SEC and won the Conference Tournament Title in a year that they weren’t ranked to start the season. Bruce Pearl has been extremely consistent making Auburn a factor nationally being a no.5 seed or higher in 4 of the past 6 tournaments.
In a year where there aren’t a ton of run-it-back teams, Auburn might be the best one. Aden Holloway will return and absolutely has the talent to be an All-SEC performer next year. Chad Baker-Mazara should be motivated after his early NCAA Tournament exit in the Tigers’ early exit. It’s nice contributors like Holloway, Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones should be back but perhaps most importantly KD Johnson will not be returning.
Pearl also brought in two 4-star guards in Tahaad Pettiford and Jakhi Howard from the ’24 class to inject some youth.
Auburn goes really over the top if Johni Broome returns. The All-SEC big man will test the waters and will likely come down to the last day to make his stay-or-go decision. With him the Tigers become a real National Title threat.
5. Iowa State
The reigning Big 12 Tournament Champions check in at 5. I struggled with where to place the Cyclones.
TJ Otzelberger is an amazing coach who has successfully navigated a terrific turnaround in Ames. ISU brings dudes back with lead guards Tamin Lipsey & Keshon Gilbert returning. Highly rated freshman Milan Momcilovic should be back after starting all 37 games and ready to improve on his no-show against Illinois in the Sweet 16.
Iowa State is losing some bulk of the frontcourt, but they have top-100 recruit JT Rock coming off a redshirt year and Charlotte Transfer Dishon Jackson committed to the program while Iowa State was still in March Madness.
Add in a couple more recruits and probably another guy or two from the portal and there’s no reason Iowa State can’t compete at the same level as this season. I wish little used 5-star Freshman Omaha Biliew didn’t transfer right before his minutes jumped like crazy, but I am still casting my vote for Otzelberger figuring it out.
6. Kentucky
Coach Cal is back!
Kentucky fans are probably sick of hearing about Freshman classes… but this one is loaded again. In a College Basketball world where basically every school is only taking 2-3 recruits a class and focusing more on the portal, Kentucky has 6 recruits including 5 in the Top 50 of the 247sports ranking.
Jayden Quaintance and Somto Cyril are Top ranked Centers that will bolster whatever remains of the Kentucky frontcourt. 4-Stars Boogie Fland, Billy Richmond and Karter Knox (younger brother of former Wildcat Kevin Knox) will shore up the backcourt and wings. Then Travis Perry is the local kid who definitely isn’t a Reed Sheppard candidate, but might be the stabilizing point guard of the future for this talented young roster.
Nothing I say in this Kentucky piece matters. We know the talent Calipari brings in. We know how that talented team’s season usually ends. You probably saw Kentucky on this list and instantly laughed or cried depending on which team your cheer for.
7. North Carolina
The no.1 seed from the West Region should be back in the fringe no.1 seed discussion next year.
The Tar Heels have one of my favorite recruiting classes with 5-Star point guard Ian Jackson, 5-Star wing Drake Powell and James Brown has all the makings to be another classic UNC big.
Coach Hubert will need the class to be great with longtime leaders RJ Davis and Armando Bacot gone. Harrison Ingram is quite literally a swing man for this team, but a brand like North Carolina will have no problem drawing in other top portal players.
For this team to really climb up to be a bigger contender, there needs to be some development of the shooting stroke for one or both of Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble. You simply can’t win at the highest level if the defense can just ignore the perimeter like everyone did against those two in the tournament.
8. Alabama
If you’re a hater of this year’s Final Four close your eyes for the next two teams.
Nate Oats and Alabama are becoming a recurring guest at the top of AP Polls being ranked in the Top 15 in each of the past 4 seasons despite tremendous turnover each offseason. Last year, the Brandon Miller team was the no.1 overall seed and lost to San Diego State in the Sweet 16. Mark Sears avenged that along with over half the roster being new teammates.
The Crimson Tide have the no. 3 ranked recruiting class headlined by 5-Star guard Derrion Reid. Oats hasn’t taken an offday recruiting and grabbed Houston Mallette from Pepperdine while in the middle of a Final Four run.
With his extension signed there is no reason to not expect Bama to be a regular in the discussion of the top programs each year.
9. Purdue
“But Zach Edey said he’s not coming back!”
Yeah, doesn’t matter. Making a Final Four will really allow people to say out loud that Matt Painter is a Top 5 active CBB coach and he’s not 4 or 5. Purdue has been awesome with Edey as their best player the past two years, but they were also awesome when Jaden Ivey was the best player and when Carsen Edwards was the best player and when Caleb Swanigan was the best player.
The Boilermakers have been a fixture in the Top 20 for going on 9 years now and have won 4 Big Ten Titles in that span. Painter is bringing in the 2nd ranked recruiting class with 6 commits including Glenn Robinson’s son, 4-Star guard Gicarri Harris, 4-Star wing Kanon Catchings, and yes another 7 footer in Daniel Jacobsen.
The worst part for the haters? Painter sculpting an offense of wings like Catchings, Myles Colvin, Camden Heide around third-year starter Fletcher Loyer and their best player Braden Smith orchestrating it all will likely be too fun to hate on.
10. Baylor
This is probably too low for Scott Drew and Baylor.
Despite some early Tournament exits, the Bears still have had some great seasons. Drew has arguably never been better as a recruiter and incoming 5-Star guard VJ Edgecomb is his highest rated prize yet.
Having Yves Missi return could be a huge help, but honestly 10 is sort of the floor for any Scott Drew team. For every player they lose to the draft that is just one more portal spot for Drew to grab from the overflowing portal market.
Baylor just built Drew a stadium and given that Calipari is back next year, that probably means Drew told Kentucky that he’s staying in Waco.
11. Arizona
Speaking of early exits in March, Tommy Lloyd everybody!!
Arizona will lose Caleb Love and Pelle Larson and likely Oumar Ballo. But last year we were talking about the Wildcats losing Azuolas Tubelis and Kerr Kriisa and before that it was Benedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko.
Jaden Bradley, KJ Lewis and Montiejus Krivas isn’t a bad core to be building around and after Kylan Boswell locks himself in the gym to shoot jumpers, Lloyd has a good point guard too. Throw in that Arizona had some dudes redshirt and that Lloyd is bringing in the no.5 class with 4 Top100 recruits and there’s no reason to not believe in Arizona as a regular season team again.
With the loss to Clemson, Lloyd will have to face the “doesn’t do it in March narrative” but I think he will be a little more worried about having to face Houston and Kansas in Arizona’s first year in the Big 12.
12. Rutgers
No team was as hard to rank as the Scarlet Knights were for me.
If you didn’t know Rutgers has the original Top-2 recruits of this class (before Flagg reclassified) in Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper (younger brother of Ron Harper Jr). Those are the highest rated recruits in program history by a large margin.
But Rutgers also lost 4-star Freshman Gavin Griffiths, starting guard Derek Simpson and 2x All-Big Ten Defensive team center Cliff Omoruyi to the portal. The young studs could have really used an experienced guard, a great shooter and defensive anchor down low to cover up their youth.
Rutgers’ roster isn’t finished though as they already grabbed Tyson Acuff a grad transfer who averaged over 21 a game at Eastern Michigan last season. I am excited to see where the ESPN.com listicle places Rutgers, but I can’t in good conscience put them higher than this based on Harper and Bailey by themselves.
13. Tennessee
Dalton Knecht has played his last game as a Volunteer and while that limits Tennessee’s ceiling, the Vols still have a very high floor.
SEC DPOY Zakai Zeigler will be back for his senior season next year and so will Jahmai Mashack and (probably) Jonas Aidoo. Throw in some hungry high ranked Sophomores in Freddie Dillione, JP Estrella and Cade Phillips and you forget how much talent Rick Barnes has accumulated in Knoxville.
4-Star guard Bishop Boswell is the lone Freshman coming in giving Barnes two spots to grab some portal players too. Tennessee is another one of these programs that has quietly been year over year in the Top-16. No reason to believe they won’t be in 24-25 especially after Tobe Awaka earns the starting role and is an All-SEC performer.
14. Gonzaga
Gonzaga is quietly one of the biggest run-it-back teams for next year with Nolan Hickman, Ryan Nembhard, Dusty Stromer, Ben Gregg, Braden Huff and Graham Ike all still with eligibility left.
Now, most people didn’t actually like that core that much and Anton Watson on lots of nights was their best player. Still, the 2nd year transfer jump is a real thing and Nembhard should be unbelievable in his senior season. Steele Venters was a late season scratch this year that Mark Few desperately could have used his shooting and size on the wing.
Few already added one of his own conference’s best players in Michael Ajayi from Pepperdine who averaged 17 and 10 while shooting 47% from three. Expect another portal add or two as the Zags dont have a single recruit coming in the ’24 class.
15. Illinois
Putting the Illini here is a swing for me. I don’t expect many of these Way-Too-Early lists to have them this high, but this is a bet on Brad Underwood.
Illinois just wins basketball games. They did it with Ayo Dosunmu with Kofi Cockburn with Trent Frazier with Terrence Shannon Jr and with Marcus Domask. Underwood has been great as a recruiter out of high school and out of the portal. I have no doubt about Illinois putting together one of the top rosters in the Big Ten.
Illinois twitter bots have claimed All-Big Ten guard AJ Storr is going there for months. We will see on Storr, but Illinois has already grabbed Jake Davis a pure shooter out of the portal and won’t stop there. With Coleman Hawkins, Domask, Shannon, Quincy Guerrier and Dain Dainja all gone there is plenty of production to replace.
You may not be excited for it, but trust me Illinois fans are pumped for more minutes from Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, Amani Hansberry and for Morez Johnson to get to campus.
16. Houston
Houston being this low is a testament to how much I value Jamal Shead.
I believe in Houston Culture, Kelvin Sampson, his rebounding drills, grit, etc. but Shead has always been the heartbeat of this team even before he was the superstar of it.
The Cougars will bring back talent with plenty of young guys ready for bigger roles like Joseph Tugler, Terrence Arceneaux, Cedric Lath, Jacob McFarland, etc. all with Emanuel Sharp ready to take center stage. Sampson will grab one or two tough as nails dudes from the portal, however until I see it all together I will put Houston in the backend of my Super Sixteen.
Again, not a hater! I just love Shead that much.
The Waiting List
Shaka Smart and Marquette will have to realign this offseason potentially losing Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones and Oso Ighodaro. The Golden Eagles will have talent and surely could make the Super 16 before the season is over.
Which of Dennis Gates’ two seasons at Missouri do you buy into more? Year 1 at 25-10 or Year 2 at 0-19 in SEC games? With 5 4-Star recruits Gates hopes to repeat Year 1 in Year 3.
Fresh off an extension Greg McDermott gets to start over at Creighton without (probably) Trey Alexander Ryan Kalkbrenner, Steven Ashworth and Baylor Scheierman.
Rodney Terry needs to show me the Longhorns belong before I put Texas on this list. Say goodbye to Max Abmas and say hello to 5-Star Tre Johnson.
Ohio State was awesome in the interim tenure of now official Head Coach Jake Diebler. With several key players returning and South Carolina star Meechie Johnson pulling a prodigal son, could the Buckeyes show that it was Holtmann the whole time?
I want everybody to be aware of Cincinnati and Wes Miller. I like what’s going on there and they are my surprise team for next year.