Four counting stats to keep an eye on that could decide the four Elite Eight games.
by Jordan Beckley
Sometimes wins and losses can be explained by one stat in the box score.
Team X hit 20 threes. Team Y grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. Team Z committed 23 fouls.
It’s reductive, but it can be a quick way to see why a game did or didn’t go one team’s way.
So, here is my attempt at picking out the four counting stats that could decide the four Elite Eight games on Saturday and Sunday.
1. Will Illinois have more than 20 Free Throw Attempts?
Illinois will try and slay the Goliath of College Basketball right now in UConn on Saturday.
The Huskies have looked like an Unstoppable freight train so far against weaker competition. That doesn’t mean Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask can’t be like Denzel Washington and Chris Pine and stop that freight train.
A huge stat for Illinois to be able to pull off the upset and to make the Final Four will be the total number of free throws. Getting free shots against UConn as well as stopping the flow of the game is critical.
Almost nobody is better at getting to the line than Illinois. The Illini are 10-1 in their past 11 and in that stretch they have averaged 24.1 FTA per game and made 18 of them. If you take out the dispatching of Morehead State and Duquesne, the Orange have been averaging exactly 27 Free Throw Attempts a game.
Contrast this with UConn who in their past 11 games (also going 10-1) have only allowed one opponent to shoot 20 free throws (Stetson, Round of 64). The Huskies are averaging less than 15 fouls over their 10-game win streak. If Illinois can get key players in foul trouble it might change the chemistry of UConn and derail them.
Obviously three pointers are huge anytime a team is trying to pull off an upset. In the past 10 games UConn’s opponents have shot just 27% on 20 attempts a game. Creighton hit 14 of their 28 three pointers as the only team to beat UConn in their last 25 games. Illinois is a volume three point shooting team too at 24 a game making 35% of them.
Yes, Illinois will need to shoot threes to win. Yes, Illinois will need to play defense to win. Yes, UConn will have to be a little bit cold to lose. Still, I think the Charity Stripe could be the deciding factor. Knocking UConn’s minutes around and getting literally free points might be more helpful than other aspects that will also definitely need to go right.
2. Will Alabama shoot better than 20% from three?
Sorry, but I am taking the easy stat to pull here.
In their three tournament wins, Clemson has given up 75 three point attempts and their opponents have only hit 14 of them. That is a 18.7% shooting percentage from deep. Impossibly bad. Skewed data bad.
If you didn’t know, the Crimson Tide chuck threes. It’s kind of their thing. Alabama takes 30 threes a game good for 4th most in all of D1. In their three NCAA Tournament games so far Alabama has hit 13, 8 and 11 threes with 80 total attempts (40%). Bama hits 36.8% from deep on the season.
In Clemson’s 1-3 stretch right before the tournament, the Tigers’ opponents hit 37% of their threes on 25 attempts a game. That stretch includes losses to three non-tournament teams in Syracuse, Boston College and Notre Dame.
Has Clemson turned a corner competitively? Or are they a statistical anomaly getting away with three wins on teams’ worst nights?
Alabama will not be gun shy. Expect 30 attempts from deep. If a return to the mean against Clemson leads to them hitting close to 15 threes… the Crimson Tide might book a trip to Phoenix for the program’s first ever Final Four.
3. Can Tennessee be close to even in the paint?
Tennessee and Purdue met in November in Hawaii in a brutal game. Neither team played their best.
Purdue shot 35% from the field, 26.7% from three, their bench went 0-6 with just 3 points and Braden Smith and Lance Jones went 3-13 for a combined 10 points.
Tennessee went 33% from the field, also 26.7% from three (just with twice the attempts), and the starters (not named Dalton Knecht) went 5-17 for 25 points. This game was so long ago that Zakai Zeigler came off the bench as he was still rehabbing his season ending injury from 2022-23.
Both teams’ fans probably feel like they could play better than that Maui Invitational Semifinal.
Months of elite basketball followed for each program and now they are both much more sure of themselves.
Zach Edey is the best player in the country… again. Dalton Knecht is the 2nd best. Braden Smith made 1st team All-Big Ten. Zeigler was the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Both have experimented and refined their rotation. The Vols have won 10 of their last 12 and won the SEC regular season Title. The Boilers have won 9 of their last 10 and won the Big Ten regular season Title.
Personally, I thought Tennessee should have gotten the last no.1 seed over North Carolina. This will probably be the best game of the Elite Eight and it will come down to Tennessee’s ability to win in the trenches.
I’m going to cheat and highlight two stats on this game, but I think it’s worth it.
In the November loss, Tennessee got outrebounded 44-31 by Purdue and Edey. The Vols gave up 17 offensive rebounds while only grabbing 21 defensive rebounds. The Boilers basically grabbed half of the missed shots they put up while Tennessee only grabbed about a quarter of their own missed shots.
Tobe Awaka, Jonas Aidoo and in general team rebounding will be absolutely essential for Tennessee to win. The Vols also need to put up more of a fight down low.
The Vols were outscored 28 to 18 in points in the paint. Combined Tennessee’s frontline of Awaka and Aidoo scored just 11 points with only 2 rebounds. The sophomore big Awaka is in many ways a brick wall, but Zach Edey (23 points 10 rebounds) was a wrecking ball fouling out Awaka in just 12 minutes and Aidoo in 13 minutes. Freshman JP Estrella got in on the fun too with 3 fouls in 8 minutes.
However, Tennessee was also one of three teams to get Zach Edey to have 4 fouls this year. The Vols’ frontcourt needs to stay out there and defend without fouling as best they can. I know that’s sort of impossible against Edey. Still, Awaka when he was out there was a force going 3-3 with 6 points and is one of the few souls I have seen actually move Edey when backing him down.
Tennessee will almost certainly lose the rebounding battle and the points in the paint again. Those are categories that Purdue dominates. But can Tennessee make it more competitive?
Eliminating second opportunities for Purdue isn’t just imperative it can be the end-all be-all. Dalton Knecht and Zach Edey will get theirs, but can Aidoo and Awaka score enough to drag Edey away from the All-American and create space for Knecht? And what if they do the thing nobody has done and can actually take Edey out of the game from foul trouble?
4. Can Duke’s shooting percentages just be average?
Duke and NC State will meet in their third matchup in the month of March.
Duke won 79-64 in Raleigh on March 4th. NC State won 74-69 in Washington DC on March 14th.
Duke has beaten a no.13 seed, a no. 12 seed and a no.1 seed who’s best player and the cornerstone of their offense and defense left with an injury in the first half.
NC State has now beaten 3rd place ACC finisher Virginia, ACC regular season champ North Carolina, 4th place Big 12 finisher Texas Tech, Cinderella-wannabe Oakland, Big East Runner up Marquette and oh yeah they beat Duke to basically start their run.
NC State is playing the best basketball of their lives right now. Duke is not at all.
Sure, the Blue Devils in the past three games have played their best defense of the season holding their opponents to 55 points or less in all three competitions. But the offense has been bad at all three levels.
Including three of their last four games, Duke against NC State, Vermont, and Houston… let me say that again. Duke against the 11th seeded ACC team NC State Wolfpack, Vermont Catamounts and the Jamal Shead-less Houston Cougars have averaged 42.1% from the field, 30.9% from three and 65% from the FT line. The Blue Devils weren’t above 43% FG, 35% 3pt, or 70% from the FT line.
In their blowout of James Madison, Duke played the same level of defense but hit 52% of their shots, half of their 28 three point attempts and 72% of their free throws. The Blue Devils won by 38 points. That is Duke’s ceiling.
Will they hit it in Round III versus NC State?
Tyrese Proctor, Jared McCain and Jeremy Roach went 7-28 from the field and 4-14 from three in ACC Tournament loss to the Wolfpack. In their 15 point win on the road the three guards combined for 48 points on 46.3% shooting.
Duke is the better team and I think it will come down to what kind of game they play not what kind of game NC State plays.
The Wolfpack have been remarkably steady during this 8-game run. They have had one game shooting below 45% from the field. They have had one game below 34.6% from three. Until the Marquette game, NC State was shooting 78% from the line on 24 attempts a game.
Kevin Keatts’ team doesn’t rely on one guy and in fact everybody has stepped up at some point. Usually the Wolfpack just has a balanced attack. Leave a guy open and they make you pay.
NC State will show up to game no. 9 ready to play the same way they have for three weeks now. The game will come down to if Duke’s NBA talent can play up to their level.
If they do, Duke will pack their bags for Phoenix. If they don’t we might officially have a debate on if this is the best Cinderella story in NC State history.