Last Week: 5-0 Overall: 5-0
Wow, even I’m surprised at how well last week’s picks went. My only mistake was not having enough confidence in Illinois to take them to cover, deciding instead to take the -190 ML.
Looking ahead to week 3, there are a some more appealing non-conference matchups. Top matchups include Michigan State at Washington, Purdue at Syracuse, Penn State at Auburn, Oklahoma at Nebraska, Colorado at Minnesota, and SMU at Maryland.
Let’s see if I can keep the hot hand this week.
1) Purdue (+105 ML) at Syracuse
Vegas has this as a pick ’em type game and for good reason. After going 5-7 in 2021 and getting outscored 113-34 in their final 3 games, the Orange and their revamped staff seemed to have figured out how to play offense. They’ve averaged 39.5 points and 460 yards per game – albeit against a couple weak teams in Louisville and UConn.
We should all know about Purdue’s electric offense by now. Even more electric than Cuse’s, the Boilermakers air-raid attack can expect to put up points against a defense that hasn’t been tested yet. Syracuse gave up a few big pass plays in their blowout wins and will likely have trouble containing the exciting Charlie Jones at receiver.
This is a largely evenly matched game on paper. Despite it being played at Syracuse, I’m confidently rolling with Purdue for 2 reasons:
- Their superiority at QB. Although Syracuse’s Garrett Shrader has taken a firm hold of the starting job and played well against a couple overmatched opponents, Aidan O’Connell is a seasoned veteran who has displayed poise in much more threatening environments.
- Purdue has already been tested. Although the Penn State game didn’t end in their favor, Purdue showed incredible tenacity against a team that had more talent at nearly every position group.
In what should be another tight game in the 4th quarter, I expect Purdue to be able to come out with the win.
2) Toledo at Ohio State (-32)
Toledo certainly isn’t a pushover. They’ve outscored their opponents 92-10 and they gave Notre Dame all they could handle in 2021. But at the end of the day, they’re playing a Buckeye team that I think is only getting better by the week.
Ohio State hasn’t covered yet this year, but largely because of a couple outrageously large lines. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Julian Flemming, and Kamryn Babb all expected to come back from injury this week, I think Ohio State will have their best offensive game yet.
Offensively, the Rockets have relied more so on a strong run game, averaging 230 yards per game at 5.5 yards per rush. Ohio State’s secondary may still be a bit susceptible, but their front-7 is as good as anyone’s in the country. Allowing just 2 yards per carry so far this year, I don’t expect Toledo to top 100- yards rushing.
Barring some garbage time TDs, Toledo shouldn’t be able to top 20 points. Ohio State, on the other hand, could very likely get their first 50-piece of the season. It might be a sweat, but the Buckeyes should get their first cover of 2022.
3) Nevada at Iowa (U39.5)
This is only a point lower than Iowa’s over/under last week, and that game had a total of 17 points. I get this is a weaker opponent which should help Iowa’s offense finally get rolling, but this legitimately might be the worst offense of 21st century (I’m not even sure if I’m kidding).
To give you some perspective, the Hawkeyes are averaging 2.8 yards per play. They are essentially averaging a 3-and-out (or turnover) every time they get the ball. It really has been putrid. And until I see something that makes me think otherwise, I do not trust this offense to score more than 20 points.
Nevada, on the other hand, should fall victim to what is conversely one of the best defenses in the country. Although they’ve averaged 38.5 ppg so far, that was against New Mexico State, Texas State, and Incarnate Word (which sounds more like a church group than a football team).
Iowa’s defense is bound to get some turnovers and either get a defensive score or set Iowa up in scoring territory. But in order for this over to hit, Iowa is probably going to have to score over 28 points. Maybe if the bet was if they get 28 passing yards, I’d bite.
4) Penn State (-3) at Auburn
Penn State – already used to playing in a hostile environment after the opener in West Lafayette – is going up against a team that trailed San Jose State 10-7 at halftime last week.
Auburn was able to run the ball all over Mercer in the opener. But the passing game has averaged just 190 yards per game against what should be easy competition. I don’t like their matchup against a strong Penn State defense.
Although they gave up a lot of yards to Aidan O’Connell and the air-raid Purdue attack, Penn State boasts one of the best corners in the country in Joey Porter Jr. The defensive front hasn’t garnered a lot of sacks so far, but they’ve been a force in run defense. They’ve allowed just 8 yards per game on less than 3.5 yards per carry.
Auburn’s defense is no pushover and Penn State still has concerns along the offensive line. This might be an ugly game that goes all 4 quarters. But like my Purdue pick, I am confident in a Nittany Lion win (and cover) because of the advantage they have at QB and because they were already tested in a hostile environment and won.
5) Western Kentucky (+6.5) at Indiana
Indiana was the benefit of 4 fumbles in a tight victory in the opener against Illinois. They followed that up with a 2nd-half rally to squeeze by Idaho 35-22. While it’s a great start for a team that won 3 games last year, the Hoosiers haven’t necessarily looked like a very good team.
Their offense has been unbalanced through two games. In the opener, 330 of their 362 total yards came through the air. In week 2, Shaun Shivers exploded on the ground as the Hoosiers racked up 239 yards. But they completed only 55% of their passes for 197 yards.
The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have an extra week of rest after a 49-17 thrashing of Hawaii earlier this month. QB Austin Reed is off to a good start, throwing 7 TDs and only 2 INTs. They are certainly no pushover and Indiana has not proved to me that they are capable of blowing out a team.
Indiana doesn’t seem to have an offensive identity and with WKU rested up and ready for what may be their only nationally televised game, I think they keep it close. I’m confident this game will be decided by less than 7 points.