I 100% accurately predict who wins what conference, who makes the Final Four, who doesn’t and who wins it all in a crescendo of audacity.
by Jordan Beckley
We are just under two weeks until College Basketball is back!
I know the sports calendar is fast and furious in October/November area. We go from cold turkey summers to being excited for Football to at this point we have football occupying Thursday thru Monday, the World Series is starting, the WNBA Finals just happened, the NBA and NHL start this week… so it is easy for College Basketball to get lost in the shuffle.
But hey some of us root for programs like Purdue or UCLA and it’s time to look ahead to the Basketball team. With that in mind, it’s time for my annual Bold Predictions column.
It’s a simple concept each year I make a handful of predictions that cover who I think will win conference titles, who wins certain awards, who makes the tournament, who goes to the Final Four, who doesn’t, and of course who wins it all. The increasingly adjective in the title means we start small and escalate the predictions from there.
So, here are nine of the bold, bolder and boldest predictions I could cook up and I really believe in most of them!
1. Indiana makes the Sweet 16
If we are going to get increasingly bold, let’s start with a no.1 spice level prediction. Indiana will make the Sweet 16 for the first time since Yogi Ferrell, Thomas Bryant & Tom Crean in 2016.
Indiana has whipped their thing around this summer and placed it on the table for all to see. Their thing being NIL money of course. Why, what did you think I was talking about? Anyways, the Hoosiers convinced two All-PAC12 performers in Oumar Ballo & Myles Rice to come to Bloomington and leave Arizona & Washington State. Woodson bolstered Indiana’s weak guard play by getting more backcourt depth in Kanaan Carlyle, Luke Goode and Rice of course. But maybe most importantly in the age of the portal kept his own best players in Malik Reneau, Trey Galloway & Mackenzie Mgbako.
But, the Hoosiers have had big offseasons before and the regular seasons haven’t lived up to the hype. There are certainly questions about fits, lineups and what the best 5 will be, but that is why this is a ‘bold prediction.’
I think that this year there is too much talent at Assembly Hall for anyone to mess up. There should be enough shooting, guard play, defense and lineup possibilities that something will work. I don’t think the Hoosiers win the Big Ten (stay tuned) but I think this will be Woodson’s best team and that they move in the right direction for the tournament success they crave.
2. UNC misses the Final Four again
The Tar Heels usually have the same mission every year. Rarely, the goal is as high as National-Title-or-bust expectations and infrequently the program has had “please just make the tournament” seasons. However the goal in most preseasons are “Win the ACC, make a Final Four’.
That is no different this season as ACC POY RJ Davis returns to try and make up for the Sweet 16 exit to Bama as a no.1 seed last year.
There will be plenty of times this season where you and I fall in love with UNC. We will see a good Hunter Tyson game or catch Jalen Washington on the right night or Elliot Cadeau will be making 3s that time and we will believe. I’m telling you, UNC will be fundamentally doomed to fail.
Coach Hubert Davis will need too many things to go right. Cadeau needs to magically have his shot fixed and not become a massive liability in off-ball offense (which he will mainly be with Davis on the court). The Heels need another year of perfect transfer portal addition chemistry and I believe last year’s was more a testament to Harrison Ingram’s adaptability than people realize. There’s too much of a leap needed down low from Washington, Jaelyn Withers, or freshman James Brown. Finally, there’s the traditional view of can you go deep in March solely reliant on a chucker like Davis.
Carolina will be really good. They are probably more likely to win the ACC than Duke. I don’t care if the things I’m complaining about weren’t an issue in their first exhibition. I’m telling you that the regular season success will blind you to the warts of this team in a single elimination tournament. Just try and remember that I told you so when those warts show up again.
3. Mark Sears wins NPOY over Cooper Flagg
Honestly this prediction might be too low on this list. AP voters will be desperate to brand this the Cooper Flagg season, but I believe that Mark Sears will give them no choice.
Flagg will put up fantastic numbers, Duke will win games and the media will be desperate to talk about him 24/7 to try and win some viewership from the larger NBA audience. Yet, Sears could just be so undeniable voters hands will be forced.
Sears was an All-American last year and was a sight to behold on offense. Truly, Trae Young might be jealous of the green light that Sears has under Head Coach Nate Oats. Sears scored 21.5ppg and had 4apg while chucking 6 threes and 13 and a half shots a game. He had more points (and on fewer shots) than Caleb Love or RJ Davis and had more assists. That’s partially because Sears had one of the best Effective field goal percentages in the country last year at 60.4% (Davis and Love had 52% and 50% respectively). A huge difference this year is that I think Alabama with Cliff Omouryi will have the defense to be the country’s no.1 ranked team.
Bama has an insane amount of National games that will set the stage for eyeballs to be on Sears and forcibly acknowledge his mastery of offense. Here is a seven game stretch for Alabama in November to December: at Purdue, Illinois, vs Houston in Las Vegas, Rutgers and Notre Dame in their MTE also in Vegas, North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and finally Creighton at home. Add in 18 SEC games and Alabama will have no shortage of opportunities to prove themselves.
I have more on Alabama later, but I think the Tide rolls thru the SEC and earn no.1 for most of the season. It will piss off Draftniks who will make jokes about Flagg certainly being the better player because of his status as a prospect, but Sears will be able to have the Hardware on his mantle as the best player on the best team.
4. Rutgers wins the Big Ten
This one might seem tame, but by the odds on Fanduel (+1300 to win Big Ten) Rutgers winning the Big Ten is actually a bolder prediction than a couple of the Final Four picks and Title pick I have coming.
The Scarlet Knights have the most anticipated season in program history with the no.2 & no.3 overall prospects (behind only Flagg) are playing in Piscataway. There’s certainly a lot of uncertainty still as Freshmen are not a lock to make a college basketball team good on their own, but I believe in them.
Ace Bailey & Dylan Harper are going to give Rutgers a higher floor than most Pikiell teams have. If Omoruyi was still on the team, I believe people would have Rutgers as the favorite of the Big Ten. I think that with Pikiell the defense will be there eventually, he will find a way to fill minutes at the 5 and that there’s enough shooting around for Bailey & Harper to cook.
The scrimmage against St. John’s confirmed your hopes for the Scarlet Knights (the Freshmen are special) or guaranteed your doubts (91 points in Jersey Mike’s!), but that team will have all of non-conference to get ready to win a weaker Big Ten crop with two of the best players on the court and one of the best home court advantages.
5. Alabama is the no.1 overall seed but loses before returning to the Final Four
So, I covered this sort of but I love Alabama this year.
Their roster from spots 1 to spot 13 is potentially the most talented I have ever seen. But this sport isn’t 13vs13 on the court it’s just 5on5. Nate Oats will have to make plenty of tough roster decisions and minutes will be a luxury not a birthright for all of these talented guys. Can Oats make the right decision to optimize the Final 5 in tight games? Probably.
The Tide should roll thru the SEC. Between their ultra-competitive non-conference, the analytics focused mind of Oats, and just the iron sharpens iron practice this team will go through a rotation will emerge and it will be one of the best in the country. Bama’s play style will mean it will drop a few games, but it will also mean they will destroy certain top opponents in ways that will be hard to forget.
Alabama’s ceiling is up there with last year’s UConn in just how fearsome it is. They will rip apart good even great teams this season. However, Bama’s playstyle is vulnerable to volatility and their depth come March will open up Oats to pushing the wrong button at the wrong time. Last year’s team was actually the worst of the past few seasons, but it was the one to break thru to the Final Four. This team I think could be better than the Brandon Miller lead no.1 overall seeded team and potentially share the same early grave as the 2022-23 team.
6. Kansas wins the Big 12, but Arizona makes the Final Four?
The Big 12 has gotten bigger and scarier this season. Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado all join the fun in what was already one of the deepest and toughest conferences night to night. Still, Bill Self and Kansas always found a way to come out on top.
Now, KU doesn’t have a vise grip on the top spot of the Big 12 like it used to, but this season I think they make it back over Top-10 challengers in Houston, Baylor, Iowa State and Arizona.
Hunter Dickinson has played 127 college games and just like Donald Trump (who was in the White House still when Dickinson started) and the presidency he can’t quite give it up yet. Dickinson is preseason Player of the Year according to the AP (a stretch and definitely won’t come true) and is still joined by Dajuan Harris Jr and KJ Adams Jr. Crashing the party in Lawrence is Wisconsin transfer AJ Storr, South Dakota State star Zeke Mayo and Bama baller Rylan Griffen. Elmarko Jackson is likely due for a leap and as an Indiana kid I’m not sure the rest of the country is aware enough of 5-Star Flory Bidunga being on this team too.
Self will surely have more than he needs to win the Big 12 again, but that isn’t a bold prediction and honestly them missing the Final Four isn’t bolder than the previous predictions. What is more unpredictable is that a no.4 seed type season for Tommy Lloyd and Arizona is the one that he finally makes it to the Final Four.
Arizona has won 88 of 108 games under Coach Lloyd. This season he will have to replace 2x All PAC12 Oumar Ballo, starting PG Kylan Boswell, active Miami Heat player Pelle Larson and Keshad Johnson. So, yeah just replace four starters Tommy! The Wildcats do return Caleb Love and some people will try and tell you that’s the only starter you don’t want to return. I’m firmly pro-Love camp but I’m not here to litigate that. I believe KJ Lewis and Jaden Bradley are ready for bigger roles. Lloyd has a top flight freshman in Carter Bryant to fill in at forward. Lloyd has replaced Christian Koloko, Azuolas Tubelis and Bennedict Mathurin before he can replace Boswell and Ballo.
I do think it takes time. I think that the transfers in Horizon POY Trey Townsend from Oakland, a sneaky efficient and underrated Anthony Dell’Orso and a passion project of mine in Tobe Awaka will take time to find their rhythm in Lloyd’s system. I think Lloyd struggles against a tougher conference in the Big 12 than the PAC-12 and is hurt by the lack of familiarity to the new conference opponents. Yet, I think this team has the right pieces to be a better defensive team than last year and one that pulls some upsets and makes it to San Antonio.
7. Zakai Zeigler, Rick Barnes, and Tennessee finally make the Final Four
Personally, I am low on the Vols this year.
It’s hard to understate how hard it is to replace a player like Dalton Knecht. Beyond that Tennessee lost Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka at the 5 this offseason. As someone who has watched Felix Okpara at his alma mater the past two seasons, the Vols might have gotten better defensively but their offensive ceiling got much worse with him as Aidoo’s backfill.
It’s going to take time for Rick Barnes to figure the center postion out and it’ll take time for new additions like Chaz Lanier, Igor Milicic, and Darlinstone Dubar to find themselves in Knoxville. That’s why I’m out on UT winning the SEC, but just by the odds I believe this could be their year in March.
How many years can you be so close and have the type of guard play that you have and not break thru? Zakai Zeigler has one more crack at it. He was exactly what you would’ve wanted against Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen and entirely not against Purdue in the Elite Eight. I think he gets it right this time around.
I have Tennessee upsetting Kansas in my fake-October-guesstimate bracket to make the Final Four for the first time as a program, the second time for Rick Barnes and a vindication for the high level ball they’ve been playing in Barnes’ tenure in Knoxville. This isn’t Barnes’ best Vols team, but last year’s Bama team wasn’t Oats’ best edition either.
8. Gonzaga makes the National Championship and loses… again
Okay, okay, okay so mayyybe I make the same prediction every season of Mark Few meeting Tommy Lloyd in the tournament.
This year I didn’t mean to I swear, but I already put Tennessee over Kansas on one side of the bracket and if I am putting Arizona in the Final Four that means that Gonzaga would meet them in San Antonio. Arizona is good and they are probably due for a Final Four trip, but man do I like this year’s Gonzaga team.
You can make a compelling case that Ryan Nembhard is the best point guard in the country. Braden Huff and Dusty Stromer might have been a year too young last season for their roles. Graham Ike is back and could have a second year transfer bump. Plus there are reinforcements to be excited about with Pepperdine stud Michael Ajayi, Patriot League Player of the Year and College Basketball’s second best Braeden Smith, and finally former Arkansas and Temple guard Khalif Battle brings some explosive offensive upside.
In a season where most teams you have to pick-two between defense, experience and offensive firepower Gonzaga might have all three. So, yeah sue me I want to see the protege take on his master. But the bolder part of this prediction is that a team capable of winning the title in Gonzaga loses in the title game to…
9. UConn has the first non-John Wooden Three Peat in CBB History
It’s not necessarily bold to predict Coach Hurley and the Huskies winning a National Title. What is bold is how insane a feat it would be to win three straight National Championships.
There have been 85 total NCAA National Titles. Only 8 schools have gone back to back: Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Kentucky, San Francisco, UCLA, Duke, Florida and now UConn. UCLA and John Wooden were the only school to do it multiple times and their second streak went on for 7 National Titles. Regardless of what you think of the competition level of the national landscape at the time, whether or not some Bruin players were getting cars, or that there were fewer tournament games for those 7 Titles, that is damn impressive to go 28+ games against high level competition in a single elimination tournament and not lose.
And that’s what makes this so crazy. We’ve had 85 tournaments of sample size to show us that winning back to back is hard and winning back to back to back is basically unfeasible. We are talking about Dan Hurley in a time of NIL payments and transfer portal departures forcing teams into significant roster churn winning 18 straight March Madness games. And that’s with several of his guys leaving early for the pros which John Wooden didn’t deal with.
This is a feat that no other Coach has done besides John Wooden. Not Coach K, not Rick Pitino, not Dean Smith, not Billy Donovan. Just John Wooden and maybe Dan Hurley?
UConn starts the season at preseason no.3 and as much as Coach Hurley takes it as disrespect it’s actually a tremendous amount of respect for a team who lost four starters to be ranked this high. The Huskies will need to replace a lot, but they did last year too. St. Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney and 5-star Freshman Liam McNeeley will slot right in for Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle. Are we going to doubt Hurley’s ability to make Hasan Diara be 90% of what Tristen Newton was last year? Keeping Alex Karaban for another year was a huge coup. Replacing Donovan Clingan will be the hardest. Samson Johnson is a different look, but what can Michigan transfer Tarris Reed look like in the best offensive system in the country? That’s a look at UConn without even mentioning prized recruits Soloman ‘Solo’ Ball (a candidate for leading scorer on the team) and Jaylin Stewart actually getting minutes as sophomores and whatever 4-star freshman guard Ahmad Nowell provides.
Sadly, it will not be the end of the UConn run yet. The Huskies look poised to win the Big East again, come into the NCAA tournament as a no.1 seed (or as a no.2 if the Big East is soft at the top and really piss off Hurley) and just might run away with it again.
I hop something new will happen. That someone else will get to cut down the nets and hoist the trophy. Sadly, I think that Coach Hurley might be destined to do it again this year and cement himself as College Basketball’s villain and make everyone really hate him. However, can anyone really beat him?
Thank you for making it this far in the article. Let’s recap a bit.
So, my Final Four is: UConn over Tennessee, Gonzaga over Arizona
and my Conference Champs are: Duke, Rutgers, Kansas, UConn, Bama.
Nice. I feel good about like 90% of this? Which is not bad for an exercise trying to pick unpredictable things in the most unpredictable mainstream sport. So, thanks for reading and for your reward here are a few extra predictions to incentivize you to finish everything you start in this Tik-Tok-Attention deficit era.
Bonus Predictions:
- Cincinnati returns to March Madness for the first time since before Covid
- Kentucky, in year one of Mark Pope, goes to Dayton as a part of the First Four
- Louisville in year one of Pat Kelsey gets a higher seed than Kentucky (a no. 10 seed) and loses in the 1st Round of March Madness (still a huge improvement!)
- Wake Forest finally makes the tournament again and wins a game or two as well
- Marquette finishes below Creighton, St. John’s and Xavier in the Big East this year
- Auburn just barely loses the SEC to Alabama but makes it farther in the Tournament than the Tide
- Purdue gets a high seed but is upset before the Sweet Sixteen again allowing people to say that Matt Painter is a choke artist again!
So, there you go! Exactly how the 2024-25 CBB season will go. Sorry to spoil it all for you.