Follow Sean & Jordan throughout the 2024 college football season as they give picks for EVERY Big Ten game & compete in the FanDuel $100 Balance Challenge
by Sean Szymczak and Jordan Beckley
Listen, even College Sports bloggers need bye weeks too!
After a hard first half of the season we took a break as both of us were moving boxes all week/weekend instead of typing. We’ve come back rested, bruises iced, and energized after a good private betting weekend to close the back stretch of the season strong.
We have an incredible slate of 8 Big Ten games to cover and the two worst teams in the conference (Purdue & UCLA) aren’t playing in any of them! Plus a bunch of great games outside of Big Ten country that will fill up your fall weekend. So, cancel any plans, grab a table at your favorite sports bar or have the Domino’s delivery tracker bookmarked as we have a full Saturday of staring at screens to prepare for! First, let’s help you get your picks in…
Cover 3
Sean & Jordan‘s 3 Big Ten Locks of the Week
Sean: OFF last week (11-10 overall)
Jordan: OFF last week (12-9 overall)
Sean’s 1st Pick: Washington vs Indiana (O51.5)
This one should be a lot of fun to watch. QB Kurtis Rourke is supposed to miss some time after getting his thumb nail lodged in a Husker helmet last week, but this Hoosier offense should still be as potent as ever. Former 4-star Tayven Jackson, who started a handful of games last year, was 7-8 passing with 112 total yards and a TD. He led Indiana to a 28-0 second half and should help his team continue their high-scoring ways.
After all, Indiana’s offense has been much more than just Kurtis Rourke. RBs Ty Son Lawton & Justice Ellison have combined for over 1,000 total yards and 16 TDs already, helping the Hoosiers rank in the top-25 nationally in both rushing offense and yards per carry. They also boast one of the best receiving cores in the entire country with six different Hoosiers hauling in at least 13 catches for 100 yards on the season. Even against a potent Husky defense, Tayven Jackson has all the physical tools needed keep Indiana’s offense nearly impossible to defend.
Indiana’s defensive turnaround has been almost as impressive as what their offense has been able to do. They rank 14th nationally in team sacks and should be able to harass a Washington offensive line that, despite performing above expectations this season, is still the weakness of the team.
However, if Indiana’s defense has one weakness it’s in the back-end. They let Maryland’s Billy Edwards and Northwestern’s Jack Lausch have big days and face an even bigger challenge now with Will Rogers. He’s 13th in the country in passing efficiency and has only turned the ball over twice. Despite his reputation as a game-manager at Mississippi State, he’s been able to push the ball down field with incredible efficiency to Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston. Coming off of a bye week, Washington’s should be able to find success against Indiana on Saturday.
Every single game for Indiana since their opener has gone over this total. Expect more of the same in what should be an exciting, high-scoring affair.
Jordan’s 1st Pick: Rutgers at USC (-13.5)
It’s a matchup of teams in a rut with upset fans. Someone has to go home a winner!
The Scarlet Knights have lost three straight: by 7 at Nebraska, by 35 at home to Wisconsin and by 3 to lowly UCLA again in Piscataway.
USC have lost three straight too (at Minnesota, vs Penn State, at Maryland) but only by a combined 11 points.
There is a real argument that USC has been unlucky and that Rutgers is bad. Big Ten teams traveling to the West Coast have not done well, but believing Rutgers will lose doesn’t mean they won’t cover. USC doesn’t exactly blow out teams. Rutgers usually keeps it close too.
But man two touchdowns feels like the right spread, right? That’s why the betting % is split at 50/50 on each side. However, the money percentage shows where you should lean. Rutgers has 82% of the total money despite the 50% split in total bets. The sharks are circling the Knights and so should you.
Rutgers cover -13.5. Adjust up to -14.5 for a little comfort if you must.
Nothing on earth or in the supernatural world would make me touch the O/U of 55.5 by the way.
Sean’s 2nd Pick: Michigan State (+3.5) vs Michigan
This is a matchup of two bitter rivals who are going in completely different directions, as indicated by the line. Michigan started off as 24-point favorites in the off-season. That has slowly decreased as the season has gone on, going down to around 7 just one week ago. But after Michigan State upset Iowa and Michigan lost to Illinois, the Spartans now seem themselves as only a field goal underdog.
Usually I like to fade trends like this, but I can’t ignore the mess on Sherron Moore’s hands. Outside of Kalel Mullings, this offense has been nothing short of a train wreck. Jack Tuttle has been only a slight improvement over Davis Warren & Alex Orji, but has no receiving options outside of TE Colston Loveland. The Wolverines’ second-leading receiver is Semaj Morgan, who is averaging a mere 6 yards per catch. Michigan State still has their own issues defensively, but they are mainly in the back-end. This Michigan passing attack doesn’t scare me any more than Iowa’s, which the Spartans just shut down with ease.
Aidan Chiles has looked better by the week, slowly playing within the offense and making better decisions. His mobility along with the RB duo of Kay’ron Lynch-Adams & Nate Carter should be enough to find some success on the ground – even with Kenneth Grant & Mason Graham playing somehow even better than everyone expected coming into the season. Michigan’s secondary outside of Will Johnson has been inconsistent at best, making this defense far from the overwhelmingly dominant unit we’ve been used to over the past three seasons.
Even with all that considered, Michigan is still the more talented team. However, I am leaning with Michigan State because of coaching. I simply believe in Jonathan Smith and the trajectory of the Spartan football program, and do not believe in Sherron Moore. Michigan State has had their skulls kicked in by Michigan the past two seasons and will inevitably be fired up for this game. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have played lackluster and sloppily ever since that USC win.
The Spartans will pull off the upset in Ann Arbor.
Jordan’s 2nd Pick: Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin
NBC/Peacock’s game of the week is at Camp Randall as the ascending Nittany Lions try not to look past the Badgers with Ohio State looming.
Wisconsin, despite not getting a single AP vote, have quietly put their season back together winning three straight after dropping their first two games against Power 4 teams. They’ve dominated the competition rushing for 700+ yards in the three games, only allowing around 200 yards a game to the opponent and winning by 101 combined points. By the way learn the name Tawee Walker if you haven’t already.
The counter is that the Badgers have beat up on three of the Big Ten’s worst (Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern) and lost at home to Alabama (ranked 12 spots lower than Penn State now) by 32 at home.
I’m not blinking here. Penn State is more than a touchdown better than Wisconsin. I’m not worried about the lookahead to OSU. Wisconsin’s defense is good, Penn State’s is better. Braedyn Locke is still super mediocre. Drew Allar isn’t anymore. Wisconsin can run the ball. Penn State can do more than just run it.
Sean’s 3rd Pick: USC (-13.5) vs Rutgers
I was soooo excited for Rutgers this season. After a 4-0 start, it looked like the Scarlet Knights might be gearing up for a special season. But after three straight losses – most recently to UC-freaking-LA – a familiar reality has set in for Rutgers. They just aren’t that good. Sure, the injury bug has hit them a little hard this season. But they were supposed to finally have the depth to be able to withstand something like this.
Rutgers is weak up front on defense. They hardly have anyone with a pulse to throw the ball to on offense. They beat themselves with penalties and mistakes. To be perfectly honest – there is nothing they do especially well.
USC, meanwhile, has still been in every single game they’ve lost until the final minute. They also are no strangers to beating themselves, with missed tackles, dropped passes, and penalties deciding many of their games. Despite their tendency to blow leads, the Trojans are not as bad as their record.
Getting to host a Rutgers team who has to travel 3,000 miles might be exactly what the doctor ordered for USC. Big Ten teams who have had to travel cross-country have struggled mightily this season which might tip the scales even more in a matchup that is already lopsided talent-wise. I expect the Trojans to run away with this one.
Jordan’s 3rd Pick: Illinois +21.5 at Oregon
Wait what?
This is comically high. New no.1 Oregon hosts no.20 Illinois (6-1) at 3:30 on CBS after a clean win in West Lafayette last Friday.
In no way do I believe in the Illini waltzing out of Autzen with a win, but this is just a stupid high spread for a ranked battle even if you really like Oregon. Illinois one loss was a 21-7 loss at Penn State. Bret Bielema’s team just beat Michigan 21-7 and they won in Lincoln 31-24. Close games to a bad Kansas team and a very bad Purdue team might make you second guess, but all of Illinois resume points to them being respectable and the betting market agrees.
Currently 80% of the total money is on Illinois to cover the spread. Sportsbettingdime.com’s algorithm isn’t the be all end all for predictions, but they currently have the game ending in a 24.6-20.9 Oregon win. I don’t always follow their model, but it is terrific at pointing out when lines are just too much and a 17 point adjustment to Vegas’ line is the fastest I’ve ever jumped on a line.
Illinois stays respectable and covers +21.5.
*Disclaimer: I have incorrectly bet the Oregon spread every time I have touched it this season.
Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Sean: OFF last week (46-30 overall)
Jordan: OFF last week (45-31 overall)
Disclaimer: Spreads & Over/Unders (left column) are updated up until kick-off, but our picks are locked in every Thursday. Follow @TheFloorSlap to get in on our picks ASAP!
| Game | Sean’s Picks | Jordan’s Picks |
| RUTG at USC (-13.5) O/U: 56.5 | It’ll be a long 3,000 mile trip back to Piscataway USC -13.5 | Legally required to be a close game RUTG +13.5 |
| NEB at OSU (-25.5) O/U: 48.5 | If Buckeyes don’t come out firing, something is very wrong OSU -25.5 | Gotta be an over right? Right?! O48.5 |
| WASH at IND (-6.5) O/U: 53.5 | Should be closer to 60 O52.5 | Tayven looked good last week IND -6.5 |
| ILL at OREG (-21.5) O/U: 54.5 | This line is flat-out disrespectful ILL +21.5 | We all know Illinois is ranked right? ILL +21.5 |
| NW at IOWA (-13.5) O/U: 37.5 | I love Iowa unders, no more O37.5 | NW offense scares me IOWA-13.5 |
| MD at MINN (-4.5) O/U: 46.5 | Maryland likes shoot-outs O46.5 | Do I have to pick this one? MINN -4.5 |
| PSU (-6.5) at WISC O/U: 47.5 | This is a very, very different Wisconsin team (at night) WISC +6.5 | Allar over Locke PSU -6.5 |
| MSU at MICH (-3.5) O/U: 40.5 | There will be blood MSU +3.5 | Wolverines aren’t this bad. I don’t think. MICH -3.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge
| Last Week | Current Balance | |
| Sean | no change | $111.39 |
| Jordan | no change | $87.10 |
Sean’s Picks
LSU ML vs Texas A&M (-104)
Let’s not over-react to A&M’s blowout win over Missouri too much – the Tigers just aren’t that good. The Aggies’ struggles with a bad Auburn team a week later is a better indication of where this team stands.
I’m leaning with LSU in what seems like a CFP-elimination game because of the QB position. Garrett Nussmeier is a dark-horse Heisman contender while Conner Weigman has been unspectacular at best. This game should come down to the final minutes, and there is one offense I trust immensely more than the other.
Betting $10 to win $9.62
Indiana vs Washington O52.5 (-115)
This pick makes too much sense. Don’t sweat the Kurtis Rourke injury – Tayven Jackson can keep this offense humming.
Betting $25 to win $21.74
Sean’s 3rd Pick: BYU ML vs UCF (+105)
BYU might be this year’s team of destiny, while UCF might be sluggish after last week’s emotional loss to Iowa State. They probably can’t count on two pick-sixes either.
Betting $10 to win $10.50
Sean’s 4th Pick: Michigan State ML vs Michigan (+150)
Throw everything you think about these teams from their past couple matchups out the window. These are two new coaches taking their teams in entirely different trajectories.
Betting $10 to win $15
Jordan’s Picks
SMU(-11.5) at Duke
Duke might be one of the worst 6-1 teams in history. SMU isn’t flawless, but I like them a lot here. I wish the spread was lower, but alas we ride with the Stangs here.
Betting $10 to win $9.09
Illinois covers +21.5 at Oregon
Betting $10 to win $8.70
Penn State covers -6.5 at Wisconsin
Betting $10 to win $8.77
I need to start making some more money, so I need to put the bets I feel good about in the Big Ten here. So please see Cover Three for the explanation on these two.
Navy +12.5 vs. Notre Dame
I’ve been meaning to hop on the Army/Navy train for weeks and I might finally be too late, but I’m still going for it. Navy has covered 5 straight weeks after failing to week 1 and Army has covered all 7 games except for by a half point last week in a 17pt win. Combined the academies are 13-1 and my favorite fun fact right now is that if they finish 1&2 in the American (yeah they both joined a conference by the way) the two will meet in the American Championship one week before they play the Army Navy game. And yes they would play two weeks in a row no matter what.
Anyways, Notre Dame has kind of been a wagon and covered 5 of the 6 weeks other than losing to Northern Illinois. The one time they didn’t was a 25 point win too. Still, -12.5 is too rich for me. The betting market is all in on Notre Dame money line and split evenly on the spread. So, I will dive in with the Navy Shipmen and believe in a special year for them and a cover in a 9-10 point loss.
Betting $10 to win $9.52