Follow Sean & Jordan throughout the 2024 college football season as they give picks for EVERY Big Ten game & compete in the FanDuel $100 Balance Challenge
by Sean Szymczak & Jordan Beckley
We are into November football baby!
Sean just talked about how the CFB season is entering it’s Witching Hour on The Big Ten Blitz. In the coming weeks, Playoff hopefuls will either succeed in their quest or fall short of their goal or teams aiming for bowl eligibility will lock down their post season trip or completely bust.
We can’t wait to watch it all and the expanded 12-Team playoff means there are so many more meaningful games in November. Penn State Ohio State is an obvious CFP-altering matchup but even Oregon vs Michigan will have permanent effects on the playoff. To keep track of the CFP check out our CFP Elimination Pool updated after the games every week of who can still make it into one of the elusive 12 spots.
Oh and we have 10 Big Ten teams who are either 4-4 or 5-3 vying for Bowl games. Eight of those teams are playing this Saturday. Plus one of the biggest meetings ever between the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions will happen Saturday at… noon? Classic Big Noon Kickoff.
Okay, let’s drop some safeties and cover 3 Big Ten games each.
Cover 3
Sean & Jordan‘s 3 Big Ten Locks of the Week
Sean: 1-2 last week (12-12 overall)
Jordan: 1-2 last week (13-11 overall)
Sean’s 1st Pick:
Ohio State vs Penn State: O45.5
After a stellar September of college football picks and a lot of money won (I hope for you too), October quickly became a month to forget. But that’s okay – this is the weekend we turn it all around. Let’s start with college football’s game of the weekend, where the best bet is to stay away from this spread.
Ohio State might be the toughest team to get a read on in all of college football right now. The talent and coaching staff is still there, but their performance out of the bye week was disturbing to say the least. The defense stepped up with a great performance after getting shredded through the air against Oregon, but the offensive line had its worst game of the season by a mile. With LT Josh Simmons out for the season and his backup out this weekend, there is no telling what this line will look like.
Penn State, on the flip side, hasn’t really been tested yet this season. West Virginia was a much-hyped non-conference game to open the season, but they now stand at 4-4 in the lackluster Big 12. Illinois isn’t quite as good as their record would indicate, yet the Nittany Lions still needed all four quarters to dispose of them. And their next-toughest test came at USC a couple weeks ago where they needed overtime to rally from a 14-point deficit.
I could see this game playing out any number of ways, which is why I’m staying away from this spread. But I am more than confident in the over at 45.5.
Despite both defenses ranking in the top-10 nationally in scoring and total defense, these units each have a glaring weakness which can be taken advantage of by the opposition. Some may be quick to point to Denzel Burke’s collapse against Oregon as their weakest point, but I actually blame their edge rushers and ability to get pressure without blitzing. Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau were supposed to be All-Americans after spurning the NFL for a fourth season with the Buckeyes. But as has been a trend over the past five seasons, they have failed to take a step forward in their development. Oregon was able to manhandle them both which led to way too much time in a clean pocket for Dillon Gabriel, which led to Burke getting burned deep one too many times.
Drew Allar’s mobility has been on display all season long and this Penn State offensive line ranks 13th nationally in sacks allowed. They don’t have the talent at receiver that Oregon does, but the Nittany Lions should be able to find some plays if Drew Allar has time to throw. It also helps that his running back duo of Singleton & Allen can beat you up the middle or on the perimeter.
As for Penn State’s defense, their defensive front could cause nightmares for a Buckeye offensive line that was overwhelmed against Nebraska. However, I expect Chip Kelly & Ryan Day to put together offensive minds together to come up with a work-around this weekend. Whether that’s quick passes to the perimeter or utilizing Will Howard’s legs more, Ohio State should put a better offensive product on the field on Saturday than what we saw last weekend.
In the event that Drew Allar can’t play due to a knee injury sustained last week against Wisconsin, I don’t think a whole late changes for this Penn State offense. Beau Pribula played beautifully when called upon last week. He is even more mobile than Allar and has a command of this offense. He doesn’t quite have the arm that Allar has, but Penn State’s path to victory won’t be fitting the ball into tight windows with or without Drew Allar on the field.
The part of Penn State’s defense that I am not overly impressed with is their secondary. They rank outside the top-20 nationally in pass defense, pass TDs allowed, and completion percentage allowed. They also rank 74th nationally in turnovers forced. Jaylen Reed is an elite safety but is not the kind of player who can match up against these Ohio State receivers. CBs Elliot Washington & Cam Allen have improved as the season has gone on, but this unit is still substantially than what we’ve been used to out Penn State these past few seasons.
Drew Allar’s poise and play-making ability has taken a tremendous step forward this season. Will Howard has delivered when Ohio State has needed it most and still has an absurd collection of talent around him, even with question marks on the offensive line. This won’t be like last year’s defensive battle that ended in a 20-12 final score. There should be points from both sides this season – take the over.
Jordan’s 1st Pick:
Illinois (+2.5) vs Minnesota
I have been strangely accurate with Minnesota games this year. I guess I have been good at gauging when they are better than an opponent/spread and when they are definitely not. That’s why my radar went off when I saw they were favorites AT Illinois.
But I have stats to back it up too. Illinois is 13-6 at home the past three seasons under Coach Bielema and 5-0 this year. More than that, Minnesota is 0-10 against Bret Bielema (combined Wisconsin & Illinois). I am not buying that Max Brosmer has turned a corner the past few weeks. I like coach and QB in favor of the Illini.
I would recommend taking Illinois moneyline to earn more money, but our rules dictate ATS so I have Illinois covering as a little buffer.
Sean’s 2nd Pick:
Michigan vs Oregon: O44.5
Everything my eyes have seen this season is telling me that Oregon is the easy pick here. But it’s not always that simple. This is the most significant road trip Oregon will have to take this season, with their previous three road games being Oregon State, UCLA, and Purdue. Michigan is also the first team Oregon has played all season long who can bottle up the Ducks’ elite receiving duo and slow the game down for Dillon Gabriel. At 5-3 with three games remaining against top-10 opponents, the Wolverines are in desperation mode now and will pull out all the stops. If Davis Warren takes care of the ball and plays like he did in the final three quarters against Michigan State, this game can be close. So I’m once against staying away from the spread.
Instead, I’m loving this over. Michigan’s defense has the players needed to slow down Oregon’s versatile attack, but this is still far from the unit we’ve been used to over the past three seasons. Against Texas, USC, and Washington – the three closest comps Michigan has had to Oregon’s offense – the Wolverines have allowed an average of 28ppg.
It’s hard to love the prospect of Michigan’s offense putting up points against this Oregon defense. But if you can get pressure on Gabriel, he’s prone to make some mistakes. Even with the Ducks’ outstanding offensive line play ever since that Boise State game, Kenneth Grant & Josiah Stewart should be able to harass Gabriel a bit. That could set up a short field for Michigan. Oregon has also been susceptible to the run, allowing 140 yards per game at 4 yards per carry. Kalel Mullings should find success. And luckily for Warren, Oregon ranks only 64th nationally in turnovers forced.
Neither of these defenses are good enough to automatically go with the under. Michigan’s offense is far from elite but is coming off arguably their best game of the season and finally seems to have some clarity at QB. Oregon, meanwhile, might be the most potent offense in the country. This doesn’t feel like a defensive showdown – take the over.
Jordan’s 2nd Pick:
Iowa (-3.5) vs Wisconsin
Another team I have had a good handle on this season is the Hawkeyes.
The only time I’ve really lost with them is the first over they hit and the fact that Ohio State covered after a lopsided 3rd quarter. Beyond that I haven’t underestimated their offense or slept on them against the spreads… and I’m not going to start here.
I love Iowa here to cover -3.5 at home. I think the over is probably a good bet as well (Hawks are 7-1 hitting the over), but I am here to support the Hawkeyes and Iowa is just a better Wisconsin this year.
I think Wisconsin inflated their ego with wins over the bottom of the Big Ten. Now after losing to Penn State the Badgers close with Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska, and Minnesota. There’s no guarantee they will make a bowl game!
Sean’s 3rd Pick:
Indiana (-7.5) vs Michigan State
How many times are we going to do this? Until I see Indiana struggle with an overmatched opponent, I’m not going to bet against them.
Whether or not Kurtis Rourke plays in this game seems irrelevant. As I expected, Tayven Jackson filled in nearly flawlessly for the Ohio transfer, leading them to a 14-point win over Washington. This is only their third road trip of the season, but they won their previous two road games by an average of 23 points.
The Spartans are rounding into shape and almost pulled off the upset against Michigan last weekend, but this is still far from a finished product for Jonathan Smith. They are among the very worst teams in college football in turnover margin, sacks allowed, and 3rd down defense. Indiana is among the best teams in college football in turnover margin, getting after the opposing quarterback, and converting 3rd downs on offense.
I don’t see many ways where Michigan State stacks up with Indiana. Yes, it feels weird to mention Indiana in the same breathe as Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State. But eight games into the season, our eyes aren’t deceiving us anymore. The Hoosiers are far closer to the best in the Big Ten than they are to a team like Michigan State. Don’t get cute – take Indiana to cover.
Jordan’s 3rd Pick:
USC (-2.5) vs Washington
Don’t let the close losses confuse you, USC is still a Top-5 Big Ten team. Washington meanwhile their close losses are much more prescriptive. The Huskies are a team who just doesn’t have enough while the Trojans just had the ball bounce the wrong way a couple times.
The game being at Washington scares me, but I am riding with USC. The public money is pretty split and actually favors the home dog in UW. I’ve been a Lincoln Riley hater this year, but the Trojans are better offensively (59 spots higher in scoring offense), only marginally worse defensively (allowing 3ppg more) and better overall (Simple Rating System has them at 24th to UW’s 47th).
Also I LOVE that it’s only 2.5 points. Makes it so much easier. USC covers and gets the ship back on track.
PS: are we aware as a general public that Notre Dame ends their season playing at USC this year…
Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Sean: 3-5 last week (49-35 overall)
Jordan: 5-3 last week (50-34 overall)
Disclaimer: Spreads & Over/Unders (left column) are updated up until kick-off, but our picks are locked in every Thursday. Follow @TheFloorSlap to get in on our picks ASAP!
| Game | Sean’s Picks | Jordan’s Picks |
| OSU (-3.5) at PSU O/U: 45.5 | This could turn into a QB duel O45.5 | An emotional hedge PSU +3.5 |
| MINN (-2.5) at ILL O/U: 45.5 | I liked Minnesota as an upset pick, until I saw that they were the road favorite. ILL (+2.5) | Bielema curse on Gophers? ILL +2.5 |
| NW (-1.5) at PURD O/U: 46.5 | Have you watched Purdue play this year? NW (-1.5) | Last chance for a win for Purdue NW -1.5 |
| OREG (-14.5) at MICH O/U: 44.5 | If the line falls below 14, I’ll probably switch to Oregon O44.5 | Legally not allowed to bet Oregon spreads O44.5 |
| IND (-7.5) at MSU O/U: 52.5 | Indiana is a top-5 team IND (-7.5) | Hoo Hoo Hoosiers IND -7.5 |
| UCLA at NEB (-6.5) O/U: 39.5 | Nebraska hits 6 wins for the first time in 8 years in fashion NEB (-6.5) | Don’t overthink it NEB -6.5 |
| WISC at IOWA (-3.5) O/U: 40.5 | The Big Ten is an ‘over’ conference now I guess O40.5 | Badgers get intimidated by the Kinnick wave IOWA -3.5 |
| USC (-2.5) at WASH O/U: 55.5 | Shades of ‘Pac-12 After Dark’ O55.5 | This is a Big Ten game? USC -2.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge
| Last Week | Current Balance | |
| Sean | ($24.50) | $86.89 |
| Jordan | ($11.23) | $75.87 |
Sean’s Picks
Duke (+21) vs Miami (-115)
Manny Diaz revenge game!
Last week’s drumming of a hapless FSU team seems to have fogged most people’s memory of what Miami did the prior three games. A 4-point win against Virginia Tech, a 1-point win against Cal, and a 7-point win against Louisville were all aided by controversial calls from the refs. The Canes could easily have 3 losses right now.
Duke, meanwhile, did everything in their power to blow that game against SMU last week. They forced SIX turnovers but two missed field goals in the 4th quarter (including a 30-yarder that would have given them the win) and a missed PI call on their game-winning two-point attempt ultimately cost them the game. I attribute some of their sloppy play to looking ahead to this matchup – one the coaches and players have certainly had circled since the off-season.
Miami is a good team – they are certainly not great. Definitely beatable. Cam Ward might be the Heisman favorite, but he has also been loose with the football. Duke has seen one of the best defensive turnarounds in the country under Manny Diaz and rank in the top-10 in turnovers forced. I think there is a chance of an upset here – meaning this three-touchdown line is way too generous for Miami.
Betting $23 to win $20
Texas Tech (+13.5) vs Iowa State (-115)
Iowa State may be undefeated, but I’m afraid their best football is behind them. In their last two games against West Virginia and UCF (neither of which are above .500), the Cyclones struggled to contain the run game.
UCF could barely complete a forward pass, going 8-20 passing against ISU, yet ran for over 350 yards. They gave up 148 on nearly 5 yards per carry against West Virginia – but a deficit made the Mountaineers turn away from the run. Red Raider RB Tahj Brooks is one of the nation’s most underrated runners, already accounting for almost 1,000 yards. He will have success on Saturday.
The Texas Tech defense has been marginally tougher than tissue paper this season, but Iowa State ranks only 82nd in offensive success rate. QB Rocco Becht went 20-46 for 2 INTs and was sacked three times against a similarly bad UCF defense last game. Iowa State relies on a committee at running back, but none really strike fear into the defense.
I’m not saying Texas Tech is a great team. Rather, Iowa State is being a little overvalued because of their record. I think the Red Raiders can keep this within a couple touchdowns.
Betting $22.50 to win $20
Pittsburgh (+7.5) vs SMU (-115)
SMU had no business winning that game against Duke last week.
Betting $10 to win $8.70
Jordan’s Picks
Army Cover and O41.5 (+170)
I’ve been meaning to get an Army bet in for a while. I messed up and bet Navy vs Notre Dame last week, but I’m not learning my lesson and I’m going to be a late adopter on the Army train.
Air Force is bad. Army is good. Like really bad. And really good. Covering -21.5 seems appropriate and the blowout will naturally lead to an over. A rare parlay for me of both is sadly only +170.
Betting $8 to win $13.63
Florida +14.5 at Georgia
A quiet aspect of the season happening in the background is that the Florida Gators aren’t that bad.
I know a crazy statement, but there’s a real chance that the script between Billy Napier and Mike Norvell has flipped by the end of the season. The Gators aren’t good enough to upset Georgia, but similar to Nebraska keeping it tight at Ohio State, they cover in Athens.
Betting $8 to win $7.27
Two quick Big Ten bets that hopefully will save my account from being red:
- IU covers -7.5 at Michigan State
- Betting $8 to win $6.78
- Nebraska covers -6.5 vs. UCLA
- Betting $8 to win $6.96
Pitt ML over SMU +225
Finally, I had to sort of steal one from Sean.
Sometimes I am dumb and think games should be a pickem when Vegas thinks they definitely are not. This is one of those games. I am tempted by the +225 and will succumb to it. Pitt very well may lose, but I can’t pass up this value.
I am way overleveraged this week so let’s hope all of these hit.
Betting $4 to win 9
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