College Basketball is back and so is Midweek Madness! I sifted thru the first week of games and overreactions are spilling out of me. I try to cool off and see what’s real and what’s not.
by Jordan Beckley
From slam dunk alley oops to freshmen clanking threes, it is so great to be watch the ups and downs of College Basketball again.
Welcome to Midweek Madness, my weekly CBB newsletter that comes out approximately in the middle of the week. For a breakdown of what each category to expect read our explainer here, or just plow ahead as I have overreactions to week 1, Good Game Bad Game, Week 1 Awards, a Look Ahead to the week’s best games and No Explanation Big Ten Power Rankings to end it all.
Goldilocks Overreaction #1
Purdue definitely won’t win the Big Ten this year
This entire section looked different before true-freshman and (through two games) starting center Daniel Jacobsen went down with an almost certainly season ending tibia fracture in the opening minute of the Northern Kentucky game last Friday.
Purdue’s biggest question this season was replacing two time National Player of the Year Zach Edey. While obviously the offense would shift more towards preseason Big Ten POY Braden Smith and backcourt bestie Fletcher Loyer, there still remained the less obvious hole of “wait who is going to be the starting center for Purdue?”
Matt Painter is locked in at playing Trey Kaufman Renn at the four and was not locking in the starting 5 next to him. Jacobsen had the highest upside and showed it in their first win over Corpus Christi. With his potential ascension off the table Painter will have to decide between little used redshirt sophomore Will Berg, true freshman (and late decision not to redshirt) Raleigh Burgess and senior reserve Caleb Furst.
Each choice has pros and cons that would dictate offensive changes and more importantly defensive scheme changes. However all of them have much lower floors than what Purdue fans are used to. Against Yale on Monday those 3 players combined for 36 minutes, 4 total points and 3 total rebounds. Not close to the 25 points and 12 rebounds Zach Edey was pulling in at the 5.
Beyond the question down low, Purdue has looked shaky in their three home wins over directional schools. Against Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Purdue won by 17 points but it was a 3 point game with 6 minutes and the crowd was unsure of their team. The Boilers lead wire to wire against Northern Kentucky but the only stat they dominated was their three point percentage as rebounds, assists, points in paint etc were nearly identical.
Freshman guards CJ Cox and GiCarri Harris have looked like how true freshmen are supposed to look as opposed to how Smith & Loyer looked as freshmen. Cam Heide looked better against Yale, but has underwhelmed. Myles Colvin’s highs are highs but he may be too streaky to be reliable. Purdue isn’t dominating the boards like they did in the Edey-era with just 12 more rebounds total in three games a against opponents that you would hope you are 12+ each game. The Boilers aren’t taking care of the ball either with 39 TOs in three games.
Purdue was a strong favorite to win the Big Ten and now that doesn’t seem to make as much sense. There is a lot of youth on Purdue and that inexperience makes more mistakes like the 16 turnovers the Boilers gave up to Corpus Christi.
My takeaway so far is that Braden Smith is very good, and Purdue might not be yet. There will be plenty of games and reps for the Boilers to get there, but for now this take is only a little too hot.
I don’t think this Purdue team is the no.13 team in the country (which might be proven Friday when no.2 Bama comes to town), and in a normal year in the Big Ten I don’t think they would be good enough to win. But this year with a soft group of top teams in the conference, the Boilers might be able to sneak away with their 3rd straight title.
This take is: Too Hot
Goldilocks Overreaction #2
Michigan can win the Big Ten in year one under Dusty May
There was a lot of mystery with 11 new players in Ann Arbor and a drastically different head coach taking over the Michigan program.
Dusty May passed the first test with ease. Michigan’s 101-53 win over Cleveland State isn’t surprising but it’s impressiveness showed out in several ways.
No.1 is that Michigan can play defense this year. The Wolverines were a doormat last year and there was an intensity and attention played to that end of the court all game that wasn’t there last season.
No.2 is that Danny Wolf is probably better than I have him credit for. I still want to see Wolf do it against Big Ten competition but his ballhandling for his height is a game breaker and opened up a large chunk of the Michigan offense. Vlad Goldin was supposed to be the guy and Wolf seemed to play the part more than Goldin.
The rest of the takeaways revolve around competent depth, defensive length, shooting, and other intangibles that were hard to project in the preseason.
In game 2, Michigan fell in a hard fought game to a Wake Forest team that will finish high up in the ACC this year. It was another disappointing game for Vlad Goldin and also an underwhelming game from Wolf, but the game did verify that Michigan has some guards as surprise freshman LJ Cason gave them real minutes again and five of their guards put in 9+ points. Also it was another good defensive effort from the Wolverines.
I do have real questions about who the guy is for Michigan especially after Roddy Gayle had a predictably bad turnover on a crunch time possession that decided the game. Bug could Michigan really win the Big Ten?
Sure, but maybe only because this is a soft top of the Big Ten this year.
If Purdue really struggles and IU, UCLA, or Illinois don’t separate themselves there’s probably about ten teams who will be in a scrum to finish 12-8 or 13-7 in conference and win it or more likely earn a share of the title. I’ll give this overreaction a passing nod and say it’s just right.
This take is: Just Right
Goldilocks Overreaction #3
Ohio State beat a ranked Texas team easily so they have nothing to worry about
The Buckeyes picked up the highest profile win to kick off the season with a 80-72 win over no.19 Texas in Las Vegas, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
The Longhorns were without sophomore forward Devon Pryor and more notably star guard Tramon Mark. Without them, a Texas team replacing 6 of their top 8 players from last season had to rely on 5-Star Freshman Tre Johnson heavily. Johnson showed out with 29 points on 50% shooting, however the rest of the team struggled to make an impact offensively.
The rest of the roster scored just 34 points outside of the Free throw line and went 2-18 from three combined. Rodney Terry’s team desperately could’ve used Tramon Mark’s scoring punch.
Now, Ohio State did a lot of things well. They won the rebounding battle. You have to give them credit defensively for the poor effort from Texas. Clearly, the three point line is a point of emphasis for the Buckeyes under Diebler.
Still, this take is too cold and there are plenty of worries despite getting the confidence building win.
The answer in the frontcourt rotation isn’t obvious. Ohio State struggled mightily to score in the paint. High profile transfers Sean Stewart, Meechie Johnson and Ques Glover had debuts to forget. 15 turnovers is too many. How reliable is the long range shooting percentage?
Ohio State won a game that they in the locker room probably felt like they should win. But it’s early November, there is so much more work to refine these Buckeyes.
This take is: Too Cold
Good Game Bad Game
A recurring segment where I tell you about someone, anyone really who had a good game or a bad game. It will mostly be players, but refs, fans, and coaches will make appearances too.
For Good Game Bad Game this week, I will be doing some stock risers and fallers. Who is better than I thought they’d be? Who isn’t living up so far?
Good Game
You aren’t supposed to be awesome as a true freshman in College Basketball. You especially aren’t supposed to be a stud when you reclassify and are essentially a High School Senior playing 21+ year olds. Well, 5-Star reclassified Freshman Will Riley is breaking norms. Riley scored 31 points, grabbed 7 boards, dished 3 assists, went 10-13 from the field all in just 25 minutes of Illinois’ opener against Eastern Illinois. Riley followed that up with another 14pt, 7reb performance in Game no.2. The 6’8″ Freshman forward is 8-11 from 3pt so far and is clearly much further along than most expected.
We knew 5-Star Center Derik Queen would be good, but putting up a 20-20 game in his debut? That was unexpected and dominant. Queen cooled off from his 22pt, 20reb effort in the 2nd game as everyone took a backseat to honorable mention stock riser Rodney Rice who dropped 28 points.
John Tonje essentially didn’t play much for Missouri last year after a great stint at Colorado State. It wasn’t a guarantee that he ever returned to form, but thru 3 games the 6th year college player has scored 53 points, is grabbing a handful of boards a game and is filling in for Chucky Hepburn admirably.
Brooks Barnhizer hasn’t played yet, but Nick Martinelli might be Northwestern’s best player. The Junior forward is taking over the offensive load without Boo Buie (or Barnhizer yet) posting 26pts & 32pts in their first two games while hitting all 5 of his 3pt attempts and grabbing 24 rebounds. Martinelli might be the Cats’ All-Big Ten candidate.
Perhaps the most important stock riser is Hoosier Sophomore Mackenzie Mgbako making the leap. The former Top 10 recruit had an uneven Freshman year despite winning Big Ten Rookie of the Year. Now, he seems like a fully polished gem, pouring in points at all levels. The 3-pointer is all the way there, the drives are more controlled, the rebounding impact is improved, and even playmaking has had a bump.
Bad Game
I’m not going to kill these guys here, I just want to see more from these players. Show me the offseason work.
I wanted more from Maryland sophomore Deshawn Harris-Smith. DHS has missed all his threes, missed his only free throw so far, and seems doomed to be benched in favor of Rodney Rice.
Xavier Booker was a 5-Star recruit and he isn’t one of the 5 best players for Michigan State this year. His body looks marginally bigger, but Booker isn’t impacting the game for a guy with his raw talent. When the ball gets to him he is looking immediately to get it out of his hands, whether it’s a quick three or a swing pass. Can I see some aggression or passion?
Literally, hours before Illinois’ first game it was announced that Ty Rodgers was going to “redshirt” and inevitably transfer. Not a fan that one of the two returning players for Brad Underwood was told he didn’t have a spot on the team the day of the season opener. That is unfair to the kid and I hope Rodgers finds a better home.
Award Winning Wings
I hand out my awards and superlatives for the week of CBB.
Wait What? Upset of the Week
One week in and it is easy to forget that the opening night had UCF (picked to finish 11th of 16 teams in the Big 12) upset no.13 Texas A&M. Wade Taylor IV is still there and so is Minnesota big Pharrel Payne, but still the Aggies couldn’t handle the heat of the Golden Knights.
Player of the Week
Ryan Kalkbrenner gets the nod here for recording 49 points on 20-22 FG in the surprisingly close opening win over UT Rio Grande Valley. Kalkbrenner cooled off with 24 points in game no.2 on Sunday, but he kept the ludicrous efficiency goin 9-10 from the field.
So, Kalkbrenner thru two games is shooting 90% from the field on 31+ shots and that includes 100% 3pt at 3-3 and 92.3% from the free throw line. It’s a limited sample size but that is good for a PER of 57.8. Let’s see if he keeps that up.
Coach of the Week
I’m giving Mark Few the nod this week for Coach of the Week. The Zags just lost in their preseason charity/exhibition/secret scrimmage/whatever you want to call it to a not that highly thought of USC. Few got in the lockerroom and riled up his guys to go out and kick no.8 Baylor’s teeth in 101-63 in the season opener. Even if most people will just remember VJ Edgecombe’s dunk on Mark Few’s walk-on son…
Gonzaga followed that up with pulling out a win against Arizona State 88-80 despite not playing their best for all 40 minutes. The Zags aren’t perfect but with one of the best coaches on the court in Ryan Nembhard and of course one of the best on the sidelines in Few, they will be a problem this year. And oh yeah, they have cool dunks too…
‘Oh No, We Suck Again’ Award
College Basketball is fickle and inconsistent. Teams are on top of the world one week and then drop two road games the next and will have fans saying…
So, this award is a weekly recognition of the fans who are frustrated with their team after some poor performances.
To kick off the year, our first dishonorable winner is Villanova & Kyle Neptune. Villanova dropped their second game of the year in an 80-90 loss at home versus Columbia. Tensions are high in Philly already and the worst part for embattled head coach Neptune is that Columbia didn’t win because of a huge difference in turnovers or a disparity in three point % between the teams or a bunch of offensive rebounds… No, Columbia won because in a game with no defense they were just more efficient scoring than Villanova was.
This is a prove it or lose it year for Kyle Neptune and this early result certainly has fans saying, “Oh no, we suck again!”
My Report from Rupp
I went to Rupp this past weekend for the first time and got to see game number two of Mark Pope’s tenure as the UK headcoach. Here are my takeaways in bulletpoint format:
- If we didn’t already know, Jaxson Robinson is Kentucky’s best player
- However, Amari Williams might be the most impactful with his rebounding, defense and connective passing
- Kerr Kriisa is having too much fun in this Mark Pope offense just no look passing on the extra pass or in transition. The headbanded maniac ended with 12 assists off the bench in just 21 minutes played and just 5 shot attempts.
- Koby Brea’s shooting skill is eye-poppingly good and garnered many Klay Thompson comps from the BBN fans around me. Just keep an eye on him defensively. I think Duke might target him on Tuesday.
- You can feel Collin Chandler still getting back up to speed in his decision-making after taking his Mormon mission trip and not playing basketball for several years. Have some patience with him.
- Kentucky shot 36% on 36 3pt attempts and were up 20 all game. There will be a really high ceiling game or two this year when they are really hitting their shots.
- The stadium itself is top-notch and my upper deck seats were far from nose-bleeds but the game day experience that struck me was all of these soft serve cones?
- I might be overestimating, but I think I saw at least 2,000 people with soft serve cones and man they looked good. The line at half was longer than the bathrooms so I didn’t get one. It did make me wonder why doesn’t every arena in the country have soft serve ice cream…?
The Look Ahead
I take a sneak peak at the biggest upcoming games and give non-legally binding vague suggestions on who I might think could possibly win in an of course non-betting capacity…
- Michigan State vs #1 Kansas
- #6 Duke vs #19 Kentucky
- #2 Alabama at #13 Purdue
- #15 Marquette at Maryland
- #9 Arizona at Wisconsin
- #21 Ohio State at #23 Texas A&M
I am releasing Midweek Madness early because I want to post before the Champions Classic tonight. I think I have a good read this year on it, but again my College Basketball Stock advice is not advice and is just one person’s thoughts read aloud in a non-contractual way.
I think Michigan State is sneaky bad. I have not liked what I have seen and more so I don’t think Izzo knows who his best guys are. Kansas might not know their best 5 either, but they are miles better than Michigan State. The Jayhawks open as 6.5 point favorites over MSU which is the same spread as Duke vs UK somehow. The Spartans have problems down low and they don’t have the horses in the backcourt to keep up with Kansas.
I liked what I saw from Kentucky this weekend, but it was Bucknell. UK still has some of the passing and the defense to iron out and against a fearsome Duke defense I am not sure that lends well for a cover. Duke might struggle at times offensively this game, but I think Duke is just so much further along than the Wildcats at this point of the season.
Quick hitters here now with no published spread for the four Big Ten games on the Friday slate.
I don’t believe in Purdue being able to hang with this version of Alabama with them restarting at center again… even in Mackey Arena.
How real is Maryland this year? They’ve seemed much more competent. It will be a real test for Ja’Kobi Gillespie & Rodney Rice against Kam Jones. People might be surprised by the Terps on Friday, especially if Julian Reese & Derik Queen have their way in the paint against an unconvincing Ben Gold.
Wisconsin’s peak last year was obliterating Arizona in Tucson 98-73. I don’t envision the same result for Wisconsin this time around.
Ohio State is also finishing a home and home after a tight loss in Columbus last year to the Aggies. Texas was overranked to start the year and after their loss to UCF maybe so is Texas A&M. This will be a better litmus test for the Buckeyes. Are they a top-20 team who can hang with the best even on the road? Or are they a Top-25 adjacent team who will win a good chunk of games and lose most of their hardest road games? I think Ohio State keeps it within 5 points til the end, not sure if they are ready to win outright in a road test like this.
No Explanation Big Ten Power Rankings
I am just the humble mouthpiece for the No Explanation College Basketball Committee, who release their weekly Big Ten Rankings to me. I provide their rankings with… no explanation.
A new no. 1, leaps from Ohio State, Wisconsin & Maryland, falls for Michigan State, Northwestern & UCLA and no explanation given for any of it!
Thanks for reading, we will be back next week after the Champions Classic a loaded Friday slate and a better sample size to feel out all these Big Ten teams.