The Super 16 is back with a Preseason Tier list placing top teams into levels of contender. National Title Favorites, IF it all goes right teams, Conference Title contenders and Final Four Hopefuls. Plus eight teams in the Waiting Room to get in.
by Jordan Beckley
Happy College Basketball Tipoff Day!!! To celebrate I have my first edition of the College Basketball Super Sixteen.
“What’s the Super Sixteen?”
Instead of doing national power rankings every week I let the best CBB teams breathe like a nice bottle of wine. Every month, I circle back and take stock of what teams have matured versus who has soured and rank accordingly. So each month there will be a Super 16 ranking the best 16 teams in the sport and each one might have a slight gimmick to make it interesting.
For our November/Preseason Edition, I will be ranking teams before I watch them play a real game (charity exhibitions don’t count) and placing them into Contender Tiers. We have Title Favorites, If everything goes right contenders, Conference Title Contenders and teams who are best served setting their highest goal as making the Final Four.
So in the waning moments before the season tips, let’s blindly put numbers next to teams and tier them out!
Tier I: Title Favorites
1. Alabama
2. UConn
3. Kansas
We have three main Title contenders this season. Depending on who you ask or what you read you might put Houston up here or believe in Cooper Flagg and Duke should be in this group, but every Title contender grouping will include these three teams and that’s why they are one notch above the teams below them.
My big departure from most rankings is I pulled the trigger on Alabama being no.1. I think the Crimson Tide might have the most talented team I’ve seen from roster spot 1 to spot 13, but games are just played with 5 players on the court. Their season hinges on being able to figure out the best 5 to close games or their ability to pick the correct 5 each night. Easier said then done. Mark Sears is a Wooden Watch favorite and Rutgers transfer Cliff Omoruyi will bring the boom down low. I can’t wait to see him in a good offense by the way.
I have the reigning champions UConn at no.2 and will not be surprised if they end the season at no.1 for the third straight year. Yes, they lost a lot (Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer, Stephon Castle), but they return a lot who will undoubtedly develop and thrive in the best offensive system in the country and of course they added a ton too. I verbatim scream the Jesse Pinkman line, “He can’t keep getting away with this” every time I see Dan Hurley landed another stud that will fit perfectly in Storrs. This year it will be Michigan big Tarris Reed, St. Mary’s wing Aidan Mahaney and IU decommit 5-Star wing Liam McNeeley, but it works just the same with 2025 commits Braylon Mullins, Darius Adams and Eric Reibe. The Huskies are turning into a Heisenberg level villain in College Basketball and they keep getting away with it.
The AP Poll’s preseason no.1 is my no. 3 as I am not as sold on the Hunter Dickinson-ness of it all as the rest of the country. Kansas is better than last year’s no.4 seed team that lost to Gonzaga before the Sweet Sixteen, but they aren’t without questions. The depth is better but the starting 5 I imagine will be pretty fluid for a while. The best three guards isn’t obvious and I also wonder if 5-Star forward Flory Bidunga won’t steal minutes from the frontcourt stalwarts of Dickinson and KJ Adams. However, Bill Self’s team this year should have good problems not real problems like last year’s rough rotation.
Tier II: If everything goes right…
4. Duke
5. Iowa State
6. Gonzaga
7. North Carolina
There’s a reason my no.4 thru no.11 is nearly identical to the AP Poll and that’s why it’s so easy to tier them this way too. This group that I am calling the “If it all goes right…” are clearly great teams, but have one or two things holding them back from joining the Title contenders. The group after has one to two more questions that pull them down the list further.
Duke is fresh off embarrassing Blue Devil Hero Bobby Hurley and Arizona State in an exhibition (103-47) that makes this ranking seem foolish. Still, while 5 Star Freshmen Kon Kneuppel, Khaman Maluach, and Cooper Flagg are endlessly intriguing, they are also still Freshmen. Can one of the older Duke guards be the type of leader that they need to succeed in March? There will be enough defense and there should be shooting, but can they score in a slower half-court games when the threes aren’t falling? There is still plenty to figure out in Durham for Coach Scheyer.
The Cyclones of Iowa State are returning a ton of players from a team that finished 2nd place in the Big 12 and earned a no.2 seed in March Madness. Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilpert, Coach Otzelberger, and Hilton Coliseum will be good enough to be a Top-10 team all season. Where the Cyclones’ wind can pick up steam is if Milan Momcilovic can make a big sophomore leap and if one of their swings at big men is a big hit. Still, will Iowa State be able to score enough to beat the best of the best? The Cyclones will bludgeon plenty of weaker teams this year, but to be true blue Title contenders we will need to see more.
Gonzaga is the ultimate bring everybody back team. I have the Bulldogs in my National Championship this year mainly because Ryan Nembhard is one of the three best guards in the country. Mark Few’s team has several reinforcements to make this team deeper this year and there’s another year of chemistry, weight training, practice, and development to entertain for several returnees. However, the Zags were only a no.5 seed last year who didn’t even win the WCC regular season or Tournament titles. Gonzaga still has things to prove before elevating to a Tier I contender.
The Tar Heels are bordering more on the next group with how many questions Coach Hubert Davis is facing. Can Elliot Cadeau shoot now? Is Jalen Washington the starting center? Who’s the best player at PF? Do we want RJ Davis taking that many shots? That being said I expect North Carolina to be a Top-10 team all season and probably win the ACC over Duke. There are plenty of questions but there are also plenty of possible answers.
Tier III: Conference Title Contenders
8. Arizona
9. Baylor
10. Auburn
11. Houston
These teams are clearly extremely talented, but aren’t quite title favorites. They fit better in a category of squad that you can say to somebody, “You know who I like to win the Big 12? Baylor” and get an “oh really?” type reaction. AKA these are podcaster darkhorse teams. They have a better shot of stealing their Conference Title from one of the teams in the tier above than stealing the National Title from all the teams above.
Arizona has All-American Caleb Love still and has likely a better more defined backcourt around him. Yet, the frontcourt is a major question with Oumar Ballo and Keshad Johnson gone. For a team who lost 4 starters from a 27-win no.2 seed, this is still pretty high (ignore the anomaly in UConn). Honestly this is my pick for the “you know who I kinda like?” teams as I just have high expectations for Tommy Lloyd and believe they might actually be better in the 4 and 5 spot this year.
I wrote a whole piece on why Scott Drew needs to remind everyone who he is this season. Baylor has a good core of returning players, a few good transfers, a star Freshman guard and questions in the frontcourt. Sound familiar? The Bears will be awesome offensively and VJ Edgecombe will be a must watch, but can Baylor start defending people again?? Baylor has lived in this 9-12 ranking range the past few seasons as an obviously very good team, but also a beatable team. Can Drew move them out of this group this year?
The Basketball nerds of the world want to tell me the next two teams belong in the top tier, but I’m sorry I can’t do that yet. Auburn and Johni Broome are the best threat to steal the SEC title from Alabama this year. Kenpom’s preseason has the Tigers as the no. 3 team overall. I need more of a proof of concept from their new backcourt before I can move them up.
Houston at #10 is disrespectful by me but here is my spin on that. I’m actually just being super respectful of what I thought Jamal Shead meant to the Cougs last year and that’s why I have them so much lower than most polls. Coach Sampson runs an amazing program defined by defense and rebounding that wins basketball games no matter who is wearing the jersey’s so yes I should have them higher, but I don’t. If they really are deserving of the preseason no.1 Kenpom ranking they will move up this list in later editions.
TIER IV: Final Four Goals
12. Purdue
13. Tennessee
14. Arkansas
15. Creighton
16. Indiana
We’ve reached the portion of teams now that have obvious strengths that put them in a higher caliber than just a Top-20 to no.25 team, but also obvious limitations that hold you back from believing in them as a National Title team. Now, when March Madness tips off all of these teams will feel like they can or should make the Final Four… even if that is probably the ceiling for these rosters.
Reigning National Runner Up Purdue faces the toughest identity shift of any of the Super 16 teams after losing two time National Player of the Year Zach Edey. The offense will shift to the shoulders of Big Ten Preseason POY Braden Smith and he seems ready to carry the load, but how good will a young team around him be? Matt Painter still doesn’t know who his starting center will be (Trey Kaufman-Renn is the PF) and he’s already starting a true-freshman guard too. Projecting the Boilers as a Top-12 team involves a ton of faith in Painter figuring it out, but the five time Big Ten Coach of the Year has earned that trust.
Zakai Zeigler and Rick Barnes are still in Knoxville and the Vols will be a good team again. Tennessee loses 4 starters from the team that lost in the Elite Eight to Purdue and yes that includes Dalton Knecht. There are plenty of questions preventing the Vols from being in the higher tiers, but Barnes runs one of the best programs in the country and has recruited well out of the portal and high school. If they hit it big with one of the transfers like they did with Knecht maybe they go up a tier or two.
Year one of John Calipari at Arkansas will not be a rebuilding year. Between FAU transfer Johnell Davis, 5-Star Boogie Fland and former no. 1 overall recruit DJ Wagner there is no shortage of talent for Calipari. The Razorbacks proved themselves with a win over Kansas in a preseason exhibition, but also proved this ranking by losing to TCU in another exhibition. We will see if Cal can get his guys to be consistently great.
The Bluejays have a chance to soft reset this season and it could be a more successful edition. Creighton beat Purdue in a charity exhibition in Omaha validating that a team with Ryan Kalkbrenner is indeed good. Coach McDermott’s squad are likely the only team capable of upending UConn for the Big East Title this year.
The last pick is a homer pick for the Big Ten who definitely has a depth of tournament level teams, but potentially might not have a team above the no.4 seed line. Indiana emptied the pocketbooks this offseason and boasts a legit roster. The Hoosiers just won an exhibition at Tennessee in an unsurprisingly low scoring affair. IU will have a real shot at the Big Ten Title, but it’s a stretch to believe in the Hoosiers making a Final Four run unless the bracket really breaks for them.
In the Waiting Room
Here are a few teams that are in the waiting room to get into the Super Sixteen. At any point the waiting room could have anywhere from ten teams to just two teams. For now, I have eight teams rounding me out at a Top-24.
For the most part teams 20-40 in College Basketball are pretty fluid, but these are my favorites that could rise into the Super Sixteen by the December Edition.
It’s hard not to see Ole Miss beat up Illinois in the preseason exhibition and put them in the Top 16, but they have for sure opened my eyes a bit.
A hard reset in Miami might be just what the Canes needed and the nation seems to have forgotten how good Coach L is down in South Beach.
If Rutgers had Kentucky jersey’s on they would be a Top-10 preseason team with the no.2&3 overall recruits.
Marquette is likely going to lean too much on Kam Jones, but Ben Gold might actually have the biggest shoes to fill for the Golden Eagles to escape the waiting room.
I thought I was slick having Cincinnati in my premature power rankings, but other people saw what I saw out of a talented Wes Miller team as they are no. 20 in the AP Poll. Absolutely no reason to not return to the tournament for the first time since before the pandemic.
Texas A&M has the best claim to be replace IU in the Super 16 as the preseason no.13 team in the AP Poll. Just know that I hate you Aggie fans that’s why you missed the cut.
Mississippi State quietly has one of the best backcourt groups in the country with Josh Hubbard, Kanye Clary, Riley Kugel, Top-100 recruit Dellquan Warren and Claudell Harris. Do they have enough down low to hang with the best teams?
Mick Cronin blew up last year’s UCLA team and came back with a revamped roster with more NIL. Will they have enough shooting?