by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
Another Saturday, another awesome week of College Football.
Listen, I don’t even mind that the insane ending in the Texas Oklahoma game ruined several bets and caused me to be aggressively even instead of profitable on a 4-1 day picking the Big Ten.
Oklahoma beating Texas is awesome. Catching a last second touchdown like Nic Anderson did right in front of the entire Oklahoma section and cheerleaders has to be up there for coolest feeling in the world.
You know what else is up there for coolest feeling in the world? Hitting most of your bets.
Sean and I each went 4-1 in Big Ten picks, Sean went 2-0 in his out of conference picks, and our props went 3 out of 5.
After a weekend like we had in College Football, it’s easy to want to jump into the Playoff discussion but let’s hold off on that until at least a couple of these matchups between the undefeated Big Ten and PAC12 teams play each other. You won’t have to wait long either. We have Oregon vs Washington this week and then Penn State at Ohio State next week.
Crazy that the PAC12, Big Ten and the ACC are all much more exciting than the SEC title race. I mean is anyone going to be impressed by any of the wins Georgia has this season? I don’t think them beating Bama in the SEC championship will have close to the cache that a Clemson Florida State rematch, or USC Oregon or even a Red River Rivalry rematch would have.
What hurts more is knowing that two of Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan, two of USC, Oregon and Washington, and six of Louisville, Clemson, UNC, Florida State, Notre Dame and Duke will miss the playoff.
In another timeline, what happens if the Big Ten, PAC12, SEC, and ACC champion go undefeated and Texas avenges their loss to Oklahoma? Do Texas and OU both get left out? What if it’s the same scenario and the Big Ten winner has one loss?
Man I wish this season was the year we had a 12 team playoff. Anyways, I just said it’s too early to do exactly what I just did and spiral about scenarios.
Let’s just pick the games in front of us.
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 7
We have six games to pick this week, including 5 Big Ten matchups. The entire middle of the Big Ten West gets a break in Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota each are on bye.
Indiana (+33.5) at Michigan O/U: 45.5
- The Sportsbooks have caught up to Michigan’s dominance now.
- 33.5 point spread is brutal.
- Week 1 we both made the mistake of picking Ohio State to cover 29.5 at home to IU
- With this game you are really picking how much Michigan scores.
- The Hoosiers put up 3 points against Ohio State and less than 20 against Louisville and Maryland
- Michigan is the best defense in the country. IU will not score more than 6-9 points.
- So, if Michigan scores 41 and IU scores 7 that is the kind of spread and total we are trying to analyze
- I think the over is slightly safer than the spread.
Ohio State (-19.5) at Purdue O/U: 49.5
- Ohio State being almost three touchdown favorites at Purdue scares me
- Rondale Moore flashbacks aside, Purdue and Ohio State is either a massive blowout or a one score game
- Could the Buckeyes be looking ahead to Penn State?
- I’m terrified of the spread in this game and potentially jinxing it.
- The over is a tough play. Ohio State’s defense is awesome, Purdue’s defense is passable, and both offenses have been inconsistent so far.
- I think the under is the move.
- Parlaying OSU cover and the Under might be smart too, if you aren’t as superstitious as me. If the Bucks cover it will be because Purdue scores less than 10 points.
Michigan State (+4.5) at Rutgers O/U: 39.5
- The public is finally leaning Rutgers after starting the season 5-0-1 ATS, while MSU is 2-2-1
- Hard to believe the O/U in this game is 6.5 higher than Wisconsin vs Iowa. Both will be similarly ugly and low-scoring
- Katin Houser gets his 1st start off the bye, although he’s not as mobile as Noah Kim was (what does that tell you?)
- Michigan State outgained Maryland & Iowa in their past 2 games but lost by an average margin of 16.5 points
- Rutgers knows their identity and owns it. Michigan State is still looking for theirs but should come out with different energy off the bye
- This should be a tight game – two great defensive fronts against teams that want to run the ball, mainly because they can’t throw the ball
- This should be a 4-quarter game, but can see Rutgers winning by 2+ possessions more than MSU
- Under seems like a solid bet. Where are these points coming from?
UMass (+41.5) at Penn State O/U: 54.5
- Warm up game for Penn State before they travel to Columbus. Honestly shocked a line came out for this game
- UMass lost to Auburn by 45, Toledo by 17
- Penn State is 6th in defense and 11th in offense.
- Penn State should dominate, but can’t imagine the energy will be there like it would in one of the first couple games of the season
- How long will PSU keep the pedal on the metal?
- UMass shouldn’t score though, so the under seems like a good pick
Illinois (+13.5) at Maryland O/U: 51.5
- Illinois is a shocking 0-6 ATS this season
- Unlike years past, Maryland is handling overmatched opponents on a regular basis. Their 3 Power-5 wins came by an average margin of 26 points
- Illinois’ offensive line is one of the worst in the country. Maryland held Ohio State to under 2 yards per carry last week
- Luke Altmyer has more INTs than TDs this season. Maryland is top-20 in the country in interceptions.
- Maryland is the better team by a wide margin
Iowa (+9.5) at Wisconsin O/U: 36
- This game very well could decide the Big Ten West
- For all the fair criticism of Iowa this year if the Hawkeyes win this game the path to 11-1 is not that difficult, 10-2 seems probable, and 9-3 is their worst case.
- Wisconsin plays a tougher schedule with Ohio State still on their docket. By the way don’t count out Nebraska who with wins against Wisconsin and Iowa at the end of the season could pull out some head to head ties.
- Back to this game though, 36 is the exact right Over Under for Iowa games. Any lower and its a stay away, any higher and it’s a layup.
- Iowa’s only loss is 31 zip to Penn State. How good is Wisconsin compared to Penn State? Can they pull out a 10 point win at home?
- My gut says yes.
- The Badgers have the 29th scoring defense. Iowa has the 16th. Wisconsin has the 52nd scoring offense. Iowa has the 106th.
- Good luck sweating the under if you want to take the meme pick. I am going to foolishly trust Tanner Mordecai to bring me a payout.
| Game | Spread | O/U | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| Indiana at Michigan | MICH -33.5 | 45.5 | O45.5 | MICH -33.5** |
| Ohio State at Purdue | OSU -19.5 | 49.5 | U49.5 | OSU -19.5** |
| Michigan State at Rutgers | RUTG -4.5 | 41.5 | RUTG -4.5 | U41.5** |
| UMass at Penn State | PSU -41.5 | 54.5 | O54.5 | U54.5 |
| Illinois at Maryland | MD -13.5 | 50.5 | MD-13.5 | MD -13.5** |
| Iowa at Wisconsin | WISC -9.5 | 36.5 | WISC -9.5 | WISC -9.5** |
Record to Date
Jordan: 30-25 (4-1 last week); winning percentage: 54.5%
Sean: 32-23 (4-1 last week); winning percentage: 58.2%
Sean’s Locks: 18-12 (4-1 last week); winning percentage: 60.0%
Consensus Picks: 10-7 (2-0 last week); winning percentage: 58.7%
Out of Conference Games to Watch
Jordan: Auburn (+11.5) at LSU, O/U: 60.5 // Miami (+3.5) at North Carolina O/U: 56.5
Super excited to say I will be in Death Valley this Saturday to see the LSU Auburn game. I ventured down to the Swamp last season and saw a crazy LSU Florida game with Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels. This year I get to see the Heisman hopeful Daniels again and … Payton Thorne. Yeah.
Still, I can’t wait to experience Tiger Stadium and Baton Rouge on a Saturday in the fall. My pick for this game is that the Tigers get right this week. Auburn’s offense is uh not great. LSU’s defense is terrible, but if their talent is ever going to turn it around this is the week right?
I like Auburn to not score much and their defense to slow LSU down a bit for the under 60.5 to hit. I might parlay a whole bunch of things on top of it the day of the game as I’m not sure the Tigers can stay within 12 points of the Tigers.
So much was made of Miami literally fumbling the bag in the Georgia Tech game. The part that was lost that they were in a close game at home against a Yellow Jackets team that lost to Bowling Green in Atlanta the week prior. It’s really weird to see that the Canes are still ranked. They won’t be for much longer. I think North Carolina crushes them. Drake Maye > Tyler Van Dyke. I got UNC to cover alternate spread of -9.5 at +172 on FanDuel. Parlaying that with O/56.5 is +381 is something to ponder.
Sean: Oregon (+2.5) at Washington, O/U: 67.5 // USC (+2.5) at Notre Dame, O/U: 60.5
Huskies vs Ducks is one of the most exciting matchups of the entire college football season. It has a couple veteran Heisman Trophy candidates and two of the top three offenses in the country in scoring offense, total offense, and yards per play. Oregon is one of five teams in the country that are undefeated against the spread so far this season. Washington won last year’s matchup in Eugene 37-34. Michael Pennix is the better QB and he has better weapons at his disposal. However, Oregon has a defense that simply outclasses Washington. It’s also the best defense the Huskies have seen so far this year. This seems like an absolute toss-up, so the value is definitely with Oregon ML at +120 (even though I think Washington edges them out). In a game that could very well be decided by a field goal, I’m more comfortable with the under.
I’m shocked that USC is the underdog. I get this feels like a game Marcus Freeman will have his team ready for after last week’s gut-wrenching 4th-quarter collapse against Louisville. But this will be Notre Dame’s fourth consecutive game against a top-25 team. Their offensive line looks like it’s already getting worn out. Granted USC doesn’t pose the same defensive threat that their previous three opponents have, Notre Dame is going to have to score much more than 21 points (the most they’ve scored in this stretch). There just isn’t a whole lot to like about the Irish until they get some rest. USC covers +2.5, and probably wins outright.
Jordan’s Upset Moneyline Pick of the Week
A new segment! Title might need some work still
I got inspired watching the SuperDawg picks on College Gameday this past weekend. I thought it was lame that the underdog picks were just to cover the spread. How about one where you pick them to win outright? That’s where you can make money on underdogs is the Moneyline.
So, here is my first Upset Moneyline Pick for week 6: BYU upsets TCU on the road at +190.
BYU has wins over Arkansas and Cincy with their only loss being to Jalon Daniels and Kansas in Lawrence.
TCU just lost to Iowa State by 13 and has already lost at home to Colorado and West Virginia.
Both of these teams might suck and we just don’t know it yet. Still, TCU seems to suck more. I believe in mercenary QB Kedon Slovis more than I do Chandler Morris.
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- USC ML (+120) vs Notre Dame
- Oregon State ML (-184) vs UCLA
- North Carolina (-3.5) vs Miami
- NC State (+3.5) vs Duke
FanDuel Odds: +1076
All 4 of these games kick off Saturday night to make for one hell of a primetime slot. So why not make a real evening out of it?
The best player in college football is an underdog against a team that has averaging 18 ppg in their last three games? Yeah, I’ll take those odds.
The gap between UCLA, WSU, Utah, & Oregon State is so small. They’ve all beaten each other, but the home team is 4-0 by an average margin of 8 points. I like that trend to continue with an Oregon State beating UCLA at home. But the Bruins are just as balanced as the Beavers, so I could see a FG deciding this. I’ll take Oregon State ML to be safe.
Miami is as overrated as they’ve ever been. They handed the game over to a Georgia Tech team that lost to Ole Miss by 25 and Bowling Green by 11. Since struggling with Appalachian State, UNC has beaten Minnesota, Pitt, and Syracuse by an average margin of 23 points. Drake Maye is playing the best football of his career and that should be enough to elevate the Tar Heels to a comfortable win over Miami.
Riley Leonard’s status is still in question against NC State. Even if he does go, he won’t be 100%. That’s bad news for a Duke offense that relies heavily on his ability to scramble and extend plays. The Wolfpack have been much better over their past four games, most recently knocking off undefeated Marshall in a 48-41 thriller. That was a week after going down to the wire against Louisville in a 13-10 road loss. They are comfortable playing any time of game and should be able to at least keep this game against Duke close.
Player Props
Kaleb Johnson O64.5 Rush Yards (-114)
- Iowa is going to run the ball, run the ball again, and run the ball some more against Wisconsin. That’s their key to success. It might not be incredibly efficient, but Kaleb Johnson should get at least 20 carries. The only scenario where that doesn’t happen is if Wisconsin jumps out to a big lead early on and forces Iowa to abandon the run game. But that’s not happening in a game where the point total is almost certainly to stay under 40.
Luke Altmyer O212.5 Pass Yards (-114)
- Until Illinois’ fixes its offensive line (which might require a new offensive line altogether), this offense will go as far as Luke Altmyer’s arm can take them. Just like Nebraska last week, Maryland should take control of this game early on. Grinding out two yards an attempt on the ground won’t keep the Illini in the game. They will once again have to throw the ball early. Altmyer should throw the ball well over 30 times, giving him plenty of volume to get around 225 yards on the day.
Troy Franklin Anytime TD Scorer (-140)
- Troy Franklin is far and away the Ducks’ #1 receiver. He has more than double the yards and TDs of their next-best WR with 535 yards and 7 TDs in 5 games. Washington’s defense hasn’t seen a test close to this Oregon offense. They gave up a big day against Cal’s Trond Grizzell and Arizona’s Jacob Cowing (both of whom scored a TD too). This Pac-12 showdown figures to have too many points from both teams to think Troy Franklin doesn’t get into the endzone. I don’t love taking props below -120, but I figured this prop would be around -200. This seems like good value considering how much of a lock it is that Franklin scores.
Caleb Williams AND Marshawn Lloyd Anytime TD Scorer (+274)
- Notre Dame has been surprisingly susceptible to the run game and that trend figures to continue, as they play their 4th-straight top 25 team. Williams & Lloyd have combined for 10 rushing TDs so far this season, 4 of which came last week against Arizona. I think USC will find a lot of success on the ground against Notre Dame.
Sean’s 5 Locks
Listen to Sean explain his 5 locks on The Floor Slap Podcast every Wednesday. Stick around for his Helmet Sticker performances and previews of all the Big Ten Games.
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