by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
There is nothing quite like College Football.
I found out this week that it was possible that UNC, Louisville and Florida State all don’t play each other so it was theoretically possible for all of them to win out and have a three way tie for first in the ACC. The first tie-breaker was going to be combined record of ACC opponents, but if they were tied it would have gone to the second tie breaker which was … putting three names in a hat and drawing two out of it.
Imagine something as dumb as a random drawing of two names out of a hat keeping an undefeated Florida State out of the ACC title and potentially the College Football Playoff. Would the Seminoles pull a UCF and claim a National Title if they won their New Year’s six bowl? What if the same happened to Louisville? Would people respect it if it was FSU and not respect it if it was Louisville? Would the CFP committee pick undefeated FSU over the ACC champion?
Before I could get too caught up in the ridiculousness, Pittsburgh blew out Louisville in the second half and the scenario is dormant unless UNC and FSU drop games.
And that is college football in a nutshell. Dumb rules and spiraling about ridiculous playoff scenarios all before the obviously worse teams prove that they aren’t as good. That is what it’s all about!
Another spiral I had this weekend, was if LSU wins out and beats Bama and Georgia along the way, they would be 11-2 SEC Champions, would that mean they eliminate the SEC from the CFP or would they be in the CFP even if the other P5 champions were 1 loss teams or undefeated?
In a fantastic season filled with as much parity as this years CFB season has, we are in for many headaches and hand wringing over so many “what if” scenarios. So, enjoy all these weird and highly unlikely as matchups like Alabama Tennessee, Duke Florida State, Utah USC and Penn State Ohio State bring more and more clarity with each week.
Betting wise this past week was didn’t light up our day or exactly make it the worst. Aggressively average I would say. Jordan went 3-3 and Sean went 2-4 in Big Ten picks. That Rutgers comeback on the Spartans somehow lost on the spread in so many ways, while still blowing the under and ruining any live bet hedges anyone might’ve placed.
Our consensus picks went sideways as Wisconsin and Maryland fell flat on their face. We both were burned by USC but we also steered you right on blowouts for big wins with UNC and LSU. Personally, my LSU game parlay fell apart as Brian Kelly refused to call off the dogs and the over hit with less than 3 minutes to go.
Our win percentage on the season is truly leveling out right at that 55% line that is our baseline. Pretty much across the board we are 55% in props, Big Ten, and consensus. Remember we are not betting experts, but rather this is an experiment for us to accurately track our hits and our misses. As always bet responsibly and stay true to your unit.
Anyways, let’s make a back half push to get that to our 60% goal.
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 8
It is a TREMENDOUS week for Big Ten football. We have the Paul Bunyan trophy at stake, the less celebrated Floyd of Rosedale trophy with an impossibly low under, Rutgers is a win away from a Bowl game, oh and one of the three PREMIERE Big Ten games of the season as Penn State visits the Buckeyes with every Kickoff show in the country in attendance.
Purdue and Maryland are on bye and everyone else is playing a Big Ten opponent. Fellas, we are officially in the thick of things. Let’s pick some games.
Penn State (+5.5) at Ohio State O/U: 45.5
- Here it is. Finally, a game between the Big Ten giants that can decide season’s and playoff hopes.
- With a loss at home, it would be nearly impossible for OSU to make the playoff.
- If Penn State loses, the Nittany Lions would need to win out and hope OSU loses to Michigan
- So let’s break it down.
- This is a meeting of the 2nd (PSU) and 3rd (OSU) best scoring defenses in the country.
- If you are eyeing the low points total, remember that Ohio State has hit their over just once and were twenty points from it against the best defense they’ve played in Notre Dame.
- Penn State has hit most of their overs, but the two they went under on were the best defenses they’ve played in Iowa and Illinois.
- The predicted score total is basically 25-20 Ohio State.
- Do you think it will be 28-21? Have Drew Allar or Kyle McCord’s play inspired you to think that?
- Neither defense has given up more than two touchdowns this season.
- Something’s gotta give but the under is likely the play for the total.
- What about who wins?
- Penn State is 10-0 against the spread in their last ten. Ohio State is 5-5.
- Ohio State is 9-1 in the last 10 and 6-0 since that weird game in 2016.
- The stats say that the only advantage for either offense is the Penn State rushing game.
- Unless either QB chokes, this should be a razor tight game. The best play is to pick PSU to cover anything that is over a FG.
Rutgers (-5.5) at Indiana O/U: 39.5
- Rutgers went from full on panic mode from being blown out at home by a bad MSU team to Greg Schiano is a hero in less than a quarter of a game. Such is life as a college football fan.
- Rutgers is 5-1 against the spread this season. Indiana is 0-3 ATS in their last three.
- The Rutgers D vs the Hoosiers offense points very much at a Rutgers cover.
- Still, this is a game that Tom Allen needs to win this game to keep his job and that is doable too.
- IU has hit the over on every line under 50 points. Their defense has started to falter as of late.
- However, the under is so low because of Rutgers with just two overs on the year and one of those was Wagner.
- Rutgers needs this game too with Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Maryland being the Scarlet Knights’ games, this might be their only shot to be Bowl eligible.
- There’s no reason to believe in Indiana’s offense in this game. I’ll go Rutgers to cover.
Minnesota (+3.5) at Iowa O/U: 30.5
- YUCK!
- You have to be a real sicko to watch this game.
- A rambunctious 32.5 point total seems too high with these offenses. Update it has gone down to 30.5!
- I keep being surprised at how low the Iowa O/U is each week and yet the Hawkeyes have hit 2 of the 7 possible overs so…
- If you feel like being just downright foul and betting the under go ahead.
- I will go with an Iowa cover. The Hawkeyes are a good football team even if they are the worst one to watch.
- Minnesota is not a good football team and Iowa just beat a better football team in a win at Wisconsin.
- Final score prediction 11-2 Iowa with two safeties. Hope you like punts!
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Illinois O/U: 41.5
- This is a good example where I thought I knew what these teams were and I lost money on them last week.
- How would I have picked this game before Wisconsin screwed the pooch and before Illinois beat Maryland?
- Do you let last week define each team or all the other weeks define them?
- Illinois was 0-6 ATS before last weeks win. I would have locked in on Wisconsin to cover this. Now, I am doubting it because of one week.
- Combined these teams have hit the over 4 times out of 11 games.
- Pick your favorite between Wisconsin being okay again or a low scoring game.
Northwestern (+11.5) at Nebraska O/U: 40.5
- Northwestern has a bad rush defense and Nebraska is really good at that.
- No need to waste time here. Heinrich Haarberg and the Husker defense to cover.
- The total feels like a trap. Northwestern has been over 40.5 all but once and Nebraska has been over 41.5 points 4 of 6 games.
- Still the 20-7 Illinois win feels more true to current Nebraska than a 31 -14 game.
Michigan (-24.5) at Michigan State O/U: 45.5
- Michigan vs Michigan State is one of the most fun rivalries in College football straight up
- Like any great rivalry these games are always competitive no matter how good one team is or isn’t
- The series history has the Spartans winning 6 of the last 10 and they’ve split the last six.
- Michigan has only one win in the last ten games that would cover this 24 point spread.
- In fact, Michigan State has more 20 point victories than Michigan does in that sample.
- But is this a textbook example of how previous history does not predict future performance?
- There are two versions of this game. One where MSU keeps it close and maybe wins and one where they don’t and Michigan steamrolls thru East Lansing.
- Both of those versions offer significant chance of the Over hitting.
- Michigan has covered and hit the over three straight weeks and has been rounding into form. Not something you can say about MSU.
| Game | Spread | Total | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| PSU at OSU | OSU -5.5 | 45.5 | U46.5 | U46.5** |
| RUTG at IU | RUTG -5.5 | 39.5 | RUTG -5.5 | RUTG -5.5 |
| MINN at IOWA | IOWA -3.5 | 30.5 | IOWA -3.5 | U30.5** |
| WISC at ILL | WISC -2.5 | 41.5 | WISC -2.5 | ILL +2.5** |
| NU at NEBR | NEBR -11.5 | 40.5 | NEBR -11.5 | NW +11.5** |
| MICH at MSU | MICH -24.5 | 45.5 | O45.5 | MICH -24.5** |
Records To Date:
Jordan: 33-28 (3-3 last week)
Sean: 34-27 (2-4 last week)
Sean’s Locks: 20-15 (2-3 last week)
Consensus Picks: 10-9 (0-2 last week)
Out of Conference Picks
Jordan: Tennessee (+8.5) at Alabama O/U: 48.5 // Duke (+14.5) at Florida State O/U: 49.5
What has been lost in all the dialogue about Jalen Milroe is how uninspiring Joe Milton and his legendary arm have been so far this year for the Vols. Milton in his last three SEC games (A&M, South Carolina, Florida) has completed below 60% of his passes with just 626 yards and 4 TDs with 4INTs. Milroe has thrown for 559 yards with 5 touchdowns and 1 pick in just his last two games (Arkansas, A&M).
I am an unabashedly a doubter of Milton and Tennessee this year. Prove me wrong with literally any big win and I will eat my words. Bama at home now with the line down to 8.5 is too low. I would say the under is a good play but the Rolling Tide might win by so much that it doesn’t hit. The numbers say this game should be close, but my eye test tells me Alabama -8.5 is a lock.
So over two touchdown spread for FSU at home vs Duke huh. Will Riley Leonard play for Duke? Maybe. Does a hobbled Leonard matter? Maybe not. Duke’s defense is really good. Florida State’s is okay? This game will have points for each team, but I think there’s good reason to believe neither will score a ton. Smartly, FanDuel knows that if Duke covers an under will follow. Still +210 to combine those two is worth the risk.
Sean: Utah (+7) vs USC, O/U: 53.5 // Clemson (-3) vs Miami FL, O/U: 48.5
USC comes off a humiliating loss to Notre Dame to face the team that booted them from the CFP last season. Except the Utes are likely to be without Cam Rising yet again in this game. The Trojans were held to under 3 ypc against Notre Dame and I expect similar struggles on the ground the game this week, as Utah ranks 9th nationally in total defense, 3rd in rushing defense, and 4th in ypc allowed. Although the Utes are also top 10 in turnover margin, they’ve forced only two interceptions all season. I expect a much better game from Caleb Williams at home. And unless Rising makes a miraculous appearance (which seems far from likely, as Whittingham is already talking about a medical redshirt), Utah won’t be able to score enough to pull off another upset. They are averaging only 13.5 ppg in road conference games so far this season. USC plays a cleaner game offensively and Caleb Williams reminds everyone why he’s the defending Heisman winner. Trojans pull away in the 2nd half to cover -7.
Duke and UNC are the clear top competitors for Florida State in the ACC. But Clemson can reenter that conversation and set themselves up for a rematch against the Noles in the ACC Championship with a win at Miami on Saturday. Will Shipley has remained relatively quiet this season, averaging 4 ypc on the nose over his last four games. If he’s going to get his season back on track, this looks like the game to do it. Miami is just 83rd nationally in Rush Yards Per Attempt Adjusted For Schedule Strength. Miami also has a -3 turnover margin on the year, forcing just six turnovers on the year. Not stopping the run and losing the turnover battle is not a good recipe for a Miami squad hoping to beat Clemson for the first time since 2010. Tyler Van Dyke, who has five INTs over the past two games, will have to play his best game of the year in order to win. Against a top 10 defense in the country, I don’t see that happening. Clemson covers -3 on the road and gets their ACC hopes back on track.
Jordan’s Upset Moneyline Pick of the Week
Miami +126 over Clemson
So the upset pick of BYU over TCU didn’t quite workout as they lost 11-44…. but hey! You don’t have to pay more for it being way off. With the odds being positive each week there is a larger margin for error with Upset Moneyline picks.
This week we are going one with less awesome odds but ones that are too good for the scenario.
Sean just eloquently broke down why Clemson will win. However when betting sometimes you need to analyze odds as much as you do actual in-game stats. Miami is only 3 point dogs against Clemson but are still +126 odds on FanDuel. So, the book knows this will be a close game but the market has pushed it to be too heavily in favor of Clemson.
As many jokes that have been made about Mario Cristobal kneeling the ball and as much money I made betting UNC to cover a higher spread last week, the Hurricanes are a good football team who will be motivated to get a big win at home.
Most scenarios will end with Clemson winning this game, but there’s enough that Miami at +126 is too good. Parlay it with a prop and the under (Clemson is 0-4 on overs in ACC play) to go for a big win yourself.
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Ohio State ML (-196) vs Penn State
- Ohio State vs Penn State U46.5 (-110)
- Alabama ML (-320) vs Tennessee
- Clemson (-3) vs Miami (-110)
FanDuel Odds: +815
Going a different route this week, only including picks I feel super confident in. Check out this week’s podcast episode for a full breakdown of the Ohio State vs Penn State game. It should be a great one, but I feel good about Ohio State pulling out the win at home. Drew Allar will have to stretch the field at some point in order to win – something he hasn’t shown he can do yet. I also believe this Buckeye offense can take care of the ball while taking calculated shots in order to keep the Penn State defense on its heels. The best offense the Nittany Lions have faced this year is West Virginia – a far cry from Ohio State.
These are two of the very best defenses in college football, both these offenses should run relatively conservative approaches, and there’s a chance of rain on Saturday in Columbus. As long as this O/U stays above 45, I am going to take the under.
Taking this Alabama team by more than a TD against any quality opponent seems like a stretch with how they’re playing. But Tennessee just doesn’t have the offense to put up points on this Alabama defense. As much love as Joe Milton got in the off-season for his arm strength, he’s been virtually incapable of producing any downfield shots for this offense. In a low-scoring affair dominated by the two defensive fronts, Alabama should emerge with the win.
As I mentioned above, I love Clemson to cover against Miami. A more conservative approach to this week’s parlay should equate to money in the pocket for those who follow along.
Prop Picks
Prop picks are released closer to kickoff. Save this page or follow us @thefloorslap and return later when we post our picks.
Sean’s 5 Locks
Sean’s 5 locks are discussed in full on his weekly episode of The Floor Slap Podcast. Listen and follow for full breakdowns of every Big Ten Game, Helmet Sticker worthy performances, betting advice, and more!