by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
Last week’s open focused on how ridiculous this CFP race could get with the conclusion that you can’t spiral about it and just let the inferior teams lose.
Lo and behold, UNC and USC have essentially eliminated themselves by losing this weekend to a dismal Virginia team and a patchwork Utah team respectively.
With each passing week, more and more teams will eliminate themselves making it easier for the selection committee.
This week’s schedule is light with only 2 ranked matchups, but that doesn’t mean our winnings will be light!
Last week was a boom with Jordan going 4 for 6 and Sean going 5 for 6 and if Cooper DeJean’s punt return would have counted (like it probably should’ve) then both of us would be at 5-1. Still, it was a good week with both our consensus picks hitting, Tennessee covering, Jordan’s Upset Moneyline pick of Miami cashing in overtime, and Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay was *this* close to all four legs counting if it wasn’t for … Miami.
So, what will happen this week? Every time you think it is a soft weekend of College Football it delivers a bunch of unexpected upsets to remind you to never miss a game.
Utah and Oregon are in a virtual playoff elimination game as the only great ranked matchup. But, who will be eliminated this week that we aren’t expecting?
Could there be trouble for Georgia against Florida? Maybe Wake Forest shocks Florida State and knocks out the entire ACC. Would you be shocked at Ohio State taking it’s foot off the gas and dropping a game at Camp Randall?
Or maybe we see New Years Six bowl hopes dashed this Saturday. Air Force and James Madison are looming around that surprise bid territory as undefeated teams and Tulane has just the one loss to Top Ten Ole Miss. Maybe some Cinderella slippers shatter on Saturday.
So, schedule that pumpkin patch visit before the noon games and make sure you know where a TV is at any costume party you might attend so you don’t miss anything.
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 9
It is difficult to hype up this week’s Big Ten slate, but as we approach the last quarter of the season and get closer to Thanksgiving let’s be grateful we have a slate.
Four teams are on bye in Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, and Rutgers, giving us 10 active Big Ten teams locked in a less than stellar combination of five matchups to pick. Both Sean and Jordan are inching closer to the 60% winning pick rate goal we are striving for, so let’s keep pushing.
Indiana (+31.5) at Penn State O/U: 45.5
- Penn State rebounds from a tough loss in Columbus with an increasingly meh IU team.
- 31.5 is a lot for a spread.
- The Hoosiers have lost to Ohio State by 20, Maryland by 27 and Michigan by 45. Everything else has been 1-2 possessions.
- Now, Penn State should be in that first category but will their domination be closer to Maryland or Michigan?
- The predicted score of 38-7 seems fair and is a similar story to the Iowa game for the Nittany Lions.
- However, I expect Drew Allar to be motivated in this matchup and be gunning it.
- I think the over is the safer play rather than mess with a 4.5 TD spread. Especially, if Penn State’s defense lets up late.
Maryland (-13.5) at Northwestern O/U: 48.5
- Maryland is coming off a bye after an embarrassing loss to Illinois
- I don’t like the other Illinois team to do the same
- Maryland is 3-1 against the spread as favorites to Power conference opponents. Northwestern is 2-3 as underdogs ATS.
- Nebraska was the first loss for Northwestern that wasn’t by double digits.
- I also love the over here as Maryland has been below the line of 48.5 just twice to Towson (when they pulled Starters) and at Michigan State (when they won 31-9)
- I am probably going to parlay both a MD cover with an over and another prop, but official pick will be over.
Michigan State (+7) at Minnesota O/U: 39.5
- I refuse to watch this game.
- I also refuse to pick a spread in favor of either of these teams.
- Again if Cooper DeJean’s return counts, Minnesota would be 1-6 ATS this season. Michigan State has covered one spread in Big Ten play so far.
- Yuck all around in this one.
- Last week, I was too scared to pull the trigger on Iowa Minnesota under
- I won’t be here. Get in now before it goes lower.
Purdue (+2.5) at Nebraska O/U: 39.5
- So, Nebraska is 4-1 since Heinrich Haarberg became the starter and Purdue is 1-4 overall and ATS since the Syracuse game. (4 of those games are at home for Purdue btw)
- Why is Nebraska only 2.5 favorites at home?
- I don’t care if Purdue is coming off a bye.
- Nebraska defense should clear.
- Again the under looks good, but let’s diversify from all the totals picks
Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin O/U: 43.5
- I think as an Ohio State fan I am scared to pick any spread with how wobbly this Ohio State offense compared to years past has been
- Still the Buckeyes have been 4-1 ATS the past four games and were only a point away from covering in the Notre Dame game
- Wisconsin has really been a pretty average team and has only covered twice in seven games.
- A disappointment might be what I am scared of but all the numbers point to Ohio State being comfortable against Wisconsin.
- If it does break for OSU the over should be a pretty good combo. If it doesn’t then the under is more likely.
| Game | Spread | Total | Jordan’s Picks | Sean’s Picks |
| Indiana at Penn State | PSU -31.5 | 45.5 | O45.5 | PSU -31.5 |
| Maryland at Northwestern | MD -13.5 | 48.5 | O48.5 | MD -13.5 |
| Michigan State at Minnesota | MINN -7 | 40.5 | U40.5 | U40.5 |
| Purdue at Nebraska | NEB -2.5 | 39.5 | NEB -2.5 | O39.5 |
| Ohio State vs Wisconsin | OSU -14.5 | 45.5 | OSU -14.5 | U45.5 |
Records To Date:
Jordan: 37-30 (4-2 last week)
Sean: 39-28 (5-1 last week)
Sean’s Locks: 24-16 (4-1 last week)
Consensus Picks: 12-9 (2-0 last week)
Out of Conference Picks
Jordan: Georgia (-14.5) vs Florida O/U: 49.5 // Oklahoma (-9.5) at Kansas O/U: 65.5
In his first road start in SEC play Carson Beck needed Brock Bowers to be superhuman to escape with a win at Auburn. Well, Bowers is out for 4-6 weeks and now Carson Beck has to figure it out himself. I’m not picking this as my Upset ML as this game should still be a Georgia win, but there is some opportunity here. Florida is a good not great team that should be capable of hanging in there. This Georgia defense is very good but it isn’t the juggernaut of years past. In fact both of these teams have hit the over in the past three weeks of SEC play. I like the over again here. Those past few weeks with the over hitting, Graham Mertz has looked… good? Mertz is 3rd in the country in completion % and the offense really has been going through him with 84 attempts the past two weeks. Parlaying the over and Florida Cover is +233 on FanDuel. Let’s have some fun Gators! Play the Tom Petty song!
So, Oklahoma struggled against UCF last week. Kansas smoked the Knights. Kansas is at home and is a dangerous team. +300 for Kansas to win is more than fair odds. However, this game features two of the worst P5 defenses out there at 55th and 95th in the country. This game will have points, even if Jason Bean is playing instead of Jalon Daniels. Kansas’ defense should be too bad to stop Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners. This game will be really fun to watch so place a bet and tune in if your team isn’t playing at noon. I like the adjusted over of 62.5 and Oklahoma to cover. I think this game will be real close to that mark and not his the 65 mark. 38-27 Oklahoma feels right. Combo those picks together and get +192 to start your Saturday off right.
Sean: Oregon (-6.5) vs Utah, O/U: 47.5 // Duke (+4.5) vs Louisville, O/U: 46.5
Oregon vs Utah is one of many pivotal Pac-12 showdowns that are to come in the final stretch of the season. Both teams sit at 6-1 and gunning for a spot in the championship game. Utah’s been winning on defense for the majority of the season but has seen an offensive renaissance for the past couple weeks.
They’ve scored 34 points in wins over USC & Cal, averaging over 450 yards per game. QB Bryson Barnes has been a game-changer with his legs and the emergence of safety/running back Sione Vaki have certainly helped out the offense. But they are going up against a much bigger text defensively in Oregon. But their defense hasn’t been quite as lockdown since DB Khyree Jackson went down with injury. He is questionable for this weekend. I’m a believer in this Utah team – I think they are not getting the respect they deserve nationally. The Utes have a defense that gets after the QB, limits explosive plays, and shuts down the run. Utah keeps it at least within a TD at home and has a really good chance to pull off the upset.
Who would’ve pegged Duke vs Louisville as an integral ACC battle in the preseason? Duke’s chances of staying in this game and pulling out a win hinges on the health of QB Riley Leonard. He missed the UNC game with an ankle and reinjured the ankle against FSU which kept him out of the 4th quarter. The Blue Devils have a stout defense but can be susceptible on the ground – great news for RB Jawhar Jordan. This will likely be a battle won on the ground, with Duke RB Jaquez Moore emerging as a playmaker with Leonard hobbled. If Leonard plays, I like Duke to cover and probably even win. But if he doesn’t play or is severely hobbled, I like Louisville. It doesn’t seem like we’ll know his status until closer to game time, so I’m rolling with the under instead, as both teams have good defenses and will lean on the ground game.
Jordan’s Upset Money Line Pick of the Week
Last week was a big hit! Miami just escaped with a win over Clemson in OT. But hey, a win is a win in Betting or on the field. Let’s keep it rolling this week.
This week has so many tempting picks. I kind of like Florida at home a bit if you’re giving me +440. Michigan State at +220 is a great pick if you want to fade a potentially overvalued Minnesota team. My hardest cut was WVU at UCF. I think that really will be a close game so a WVU cover is probably a great look, but +220 will reap you better rewards.
My official pick is Kentucky to beat Tennessee in Lexington at +146. I haven’t liked Tennessee for going on 5 weeks now. The lines don’t seem to have adjusted yet to my hate of them. Strange.
I won money off the Vols last week with Bama let’s do it again this week. I think Kentucky might be better overall, but them being +146 at home is a sacrifice I’m willing to make. I might be underrating Tennessee’s defense, but I also think one of these weeks Joe Milton will really be undressed for the QB he really is. Why not this week?
Given the horrible slate this week, it would be a great week for a whole bunch of upsets, so if you want to go crazy bet the four I gave you and another couple and try to cash out!
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Duke ML (+160) vs Louisville
- Virginia (+18.5) vs Miami
- NC State (+10) vs Clemson
- Minnesota ML (-295) vs Michigan State
FanDuel Odds: +1168
If Cade Klubnik just handed the ball off at the goal line vs Miami last week instead of going off script and calling his own number, my parlay last week would have hit. Against my better judgement, I’m staying in the ACC for a lot of my parlay picks this week.
I said above that Duke’s chances to win likely hinges on the health of QB Riley Leonard. It sounds like he is going to play this weekend. Even if he doesn’t, this seems like a classic Louisville collapse game. Listen, the Cardinals had a magical 4th quarter against Notre Dame in a raucous home environment. Outside of that, they’ve squeaked out wins against mediocre-at-best Georgia Tech, Indiana, and NC State teams. Oh, and they got dominated by Pitt in their last outing. Duke has been a little more battle-tested against better opponents and is a complete team (when Riley Leonard plays). The spread is sure to swing in Duke’s favor if his availability is confirmed. So I’m going with Duke ML while it is still at good odds.
Taking Virginia (+18) over Miami and NC State (+10) over Clemson stems directly from being forced to watch that Clemson vs Miami game last weekend. Neither of these teams are very good. Virginia finally played a complete game and pulled off an upset after close calls against NC State and BC. QB Tony Muskett has played much better and his connection to WR Malik Washington has become one of the most lethal in the entire country. They are playing plenty good enough to stay within 18 points of a Miami that, over their past 3 games, has turned the ball over 10 times and given up over 30 ppg.
The CW Network has hosted Pitt’s upset vs Louisville and Virginia’s upset over UNC each of the past two weeks. They host the NC State vs Clemson game this weekend – maybe an indication the Wolfpack can pull off the upset? I won’t go that far, but I like them to cover at +10. Clemson is 2-3 in the ACC, with their only double-digit win coming over the last-place Orange. Clemson looks lost offensively and defensively. Part of me is still bitter about their loss to Miami last weekend, but I just don’t think this team is capable of dominating any semi-quality opponent.
For my final leg, I took the Gophers ML to boost the odds over +1000. I don’t love the spread at -7 against Michigan State, as the Spartans still boast a feisty defensive front and the Gophers struggle to score. But Minnesota is still in the thick of the Big Ten West race. Michigan State’s offense is abysmal and I think Minnesota can ride their home crowd to a win.
Prop Picks
Drew Allar O227.5 Pass Yards vs Indiana (-114)
- I think Mike Yurcic and James Franklin are going to do everything possible to make Drew Allar feel confident after last week’s debacle. They are finally going to push the ball downfield and open up this offense a little against an outmanned Hoosier defense. This feels like a game where Allar puts up 300 pass yards. There are some appetizing alternative pass yards for Allar, like over 250 at +144, over 275 at +270, and over 300 at +450.
Jonathan Brooks O104.5 Rush Yards vs BYU (-114)
- Brooks has gone over this mark in 4 of his past 5 games, netting 99 yards in last week’s matchup against Houston. With Quinn Ewers out, the Longhorns are likely to lean even more heavily on the ground game. And unlike last week, Texas should be playing with a lead the majority of the game which should give Brooks more opportunities.
Cade Stover O52.5 Receiving Yards vs Wisconsin (-114)
- I trust Luke Fickell to have some tricks up his sleeve to try to keep the ball out of Marvin Harrison’s hands. With Emeka Egbuka’s status still up in the air, Cade Stover is likely to continue as Ohio State’s #2 receiving threat.
Sean’s 5 Locks
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