by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
Remember how we said last week’s slate sucked, but that just meant that upsets were bound to happen? Well, we got upsets.
Georgia Tech upset North Carolina with another epic 4th quarter, Arizona upset another PAC-12 hopeful in Oregon State and of course Kansas upset Oklahoma!
That last loss could be critical come CFP time as if it is coming down between a 1-loss Oregon and a 1-loss Oklahoma for the last playoff spot, the Big 12 will be left out and the Pac-12 would get the nod.
Speaking of the CFP, we got our first CFP rankings this week!
And surprise!! Ohio State is number 1 in the eyes of the committee. We have a long way to go before the playoff, but it’s nice to see where everyone stands. Obviously, most of these teams will not remain unscathed. Don’t be surprised if 2 or 3 of the teams in the Top 4 right now aren’t in the playoff come New Years Eve.
It really is shaping up to be a such a memorable and crazy year, but let’s focus on betting this weeks slate. If last week’s slate was a little lackluster, this week’s will get you pumped up to watch Dr. Pepper and Aflac commercials all day.
Kansas State takes their rolling running offense into Austin to take on Texas. Dabo looks to end a two game slide and silence radio callers as Clemson hosts Notre Dame. The Missouri Tigers head to Athens to try and shake up the SEC standings with a win over Georgia. Arizona tries to have another upset after dark that nobody sees with UCLA in town. USC vs Washington was a game that was much bigger a few weeks ago but still could have major implications if USC pulls it together. Plus we have the Bedlam Series with a surging Oklahoma State taking on a recovering Sooner team. Oh yeah and one of LSU and Alabama will be eliminated from the CFP as the Tigers travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Wow.
Before we can give you probably incorrect out of conference bets, why don’t we break down the Big Ten.
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 10
For the first time in awhile we have all 14 Big Ten teams in action, and for the first time all season we have 7 Big Ten head to head matchups!
This weekend kicks off 4 straight November weekends filled with 7 Big Ten matchups each time. This is the conference season’s Witching Hour. Who will emerge to win the Big Ten West? Will Ohio State finally beat Michigan again? Can Penn State sneak back into the Big Ten Championship? Will any of the Big 3 in the Big Ten East be upset?
All of that will be decided this month, so buckle up!
Ohio State (-18.5) at Rutgers
- The closest game between these teams came in the COVID season when OSU beat Rutgers by 22 at home. All other matchups have been decided by 35+ points.
- Rutgers has a top-10 defense by most metrics. But if they have a weakness, it’s against the run. They give up 120 rush yards per game. Michigan managed to rush for 201 yards on 5 ypc when they met earlier this season. Treveyon Henderson had over 200 total yards in his return last week.
- Gavin Wimsatt is a force with his legs, but has yet to pass for over 200 yards in a game and completed more than 50% of his passes in only 3 games.
- Ohio State is coming off a tight road win against a Wisconsin team that has a very similar makeup as Rutgers.
- This matchup has “trap game” written all over it for the Buckeyes, especially considering Rutgers is coming off a bye week.
- Rutgers should be able to contain Ohio State’s offense much like Notre Dame, Penn State, and Wisconsin all did. But those three teams averaged 12ppg against the Buckeyes. Hard to imagine Rutgers having more success than those teams barring some trick plays and new wrinkles in the offense.
Wisconsin (-9.5) at Indiana
- Indiana has only kept one Big Ten opponent within two possessions this season. But surprisingly, it was last week against Penn State as 32 point underdogs.
- The Hoosier defense has been wildly inconsistent this season. They started off the season on a tear in their first three games, then gave up 39ppg over their next four games (which included matchups against Akron and Rutgers), but rallied to give Penn State everything they could handle last week.
- Brayden Locke will start again for Wisconsin after taking over for Tanner Mordecai. He struggled when he was thrown into the fire against Iowa but has looked much more comfortable over the past two games – especially on 3rd down.
- RB Braelon Allen is out for the season and backup Chez Mellusi was lost for the year earlier this season. The Badgers will have to lean on Jackson Acker, who mustered just 3.8 ypc against Ohio State. The Hoosiers held Penn State to 3.1 ypc last weekend.
- Both of these teams are 4-4 ATS so far this season. Both teams also struggle mightily to generate explosive plays on offense.
- This should be a classic, ugly Big Ten battle. I’m honestly surprised to see the O/U above 40 – and it’s at 45.5 at that. I hate this spread given the injuries with Wisconsin and the inconsistency with Indiana. The under seems like the smart move.
Nebraska (-3) at Michigan State
- How many weeks do we have to say MSU is bad and that you should bet against them?
- For what will end up being the last ten weeks of the season, if you bet against MSU everytime you likely will be wrong like twice. That’s a lot of money to earn.
- Nebraska the 44th team by SRS on sportsreference vs the 85th by the same metric shouldn’t be -3. Perhaps consider a higher odds alternate spread…
- The Total seems really low and it’s begging you to take it at 34.5, but don’t underestimate these two teams ability to not score points
- These are the 115th and 123rd scoring offenses out of 133 in D1.
Penn State (-9.5) at Maryland
- Maryland’s season has quickly spiraled since halftime of the Ohio State game. They started off the season with a +127 point differential but have a -29 point differential since.
- The Terps have remained fairly stout against the run, but got picked apart by Luke Altmyer and Brendan Sullivan in their past two games.
- Penn State, despite their defensive prowess, couldn’t contain Marvin Harrison and had two busted coverages against Indiana which totaled 159 yards. Maryland has five receivers that can legitimately test any defense.
- Drew Allar’s late 52-yard TD bomb elevated what was an otherwise anemic passing attack – again. That may have given Allar the confidence boost he needed and Mike Yurcic the green light to dial up more deep shots to test a susceptible Terp secondary.
- Penn State beat Maryland 30-0 last year. The public is leaning with the Nittany Lions in this one, which makes sense given Maryland’s past two outings.
- Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Terps get out of their slump and give Penn State a good game. This could come down to a battle of the QBs.
Illinois (+1.5) at Minnesota
- Truly games like this make me question why we pick every game.
- Still, somehow Minnesota has a shot at winning the Big Ten West. Theoretically, Illinois can make a bowl game.
- This is somehow a pick-em game with Gophers being -126 and Illini being +106
- If you’re a follower, there has been plenty of action on Illinois’ spread at 63% of bets.
- I don’t know why though.
- Minnesota is starting to be a little competent going 3-1 in their last four in real life and against the spread. The only loss is Michigan. Fair.
- Illinois has not been competent. They are 1-7 ATS this season. The Wisconsin game is an aberration until proven otherwise.
- Total at 43.5 is a tough call.
- Will Illinois’ defense show up? If so, under is the pick.
- If they don’t and it opens up a bit then the over will pull through.
- If you feel confident either way, go ahead. We both are picking Minnesota to cover.
Iowa (-5.5) at Northwestern
- Iowa will travel to Chicago to play Northwestern in definitely one of the weirdest games of the week.
- Northwestern is hot! The Wildcats just beat Maryland in a home upset as two TD dogs to pull to 4-4. Coach Braun is two wins from a bowl game which would be one of the biggest achievements in CFB this season.
- Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are in about the most awkward coaching situation I’ve seen.
- Kirk Ferentz announced they are moving on from his son as OC… after the season. So yeah he is still coaching the rest of the year. He just knows that his dad is firing him no matter what.
- I’m sure that Brian will now coach with reckless abandon and really unlock Deacon Hill and Iowa will score points and… yeah, no not really.
- This is definitely the strangest, saddest 6-2 team I have seen.
- The under as always with Iowa is a fair play.
- I’m conflicted as 5.5 seems high for the spread, but the more I stare at the points Northwestern has put up against good defenses (Penn State, Duke, Rutgers, Nebraska) and I get scared.
- Again the Hawkeyes are 7-1 if the refs don’t call the Cooper Dejean punt return a fair catch. This game is another great example of are you betting on who the team was last week or who they’ve been all season.
- I’m taking Iowa to cover and hating myself doing it. Forgive me, David Braun.
Purdue (+32.5) at Michigan
- Fun Fact! Purdue has the 106th scoring offense and the 105th scoring defense in the country.
- Purdue football does not have a guy writing a manifesto about them on their sidelines.
- Purdue won’t score. Avoid the over and just bet Michigan to cover.
| Game | Spread | Total | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| Ohio State at Rutgers | OSU -18.5 | 42.5 | RUTG +18.5 | U42.5** |
| Wisconsin at Indiana | WISC -9.5 | 45.5 | WISC -9.5 | U45.5** |
| Nebraska at Michigan State | NEB -3 | 34.5 | NEB -3 | NEB -3** |
| Penn State at Maryland | PSU -8.5 | 49.5 | O49.5 | O49.5 |
| Illinois at Minnesota | MINN -1.5 | 43.5 | MINN -1.5 | MINN -1.5** |
| Iowa vs Northwestern (at Wrigley) | IOWA -5.5 | 31.5 | IOWA -5.5 | U31.5** |
| Purdue at Michigan | MICH -32.5 | 52.5 | MICH -32.5 | MICH -32.5 |
Record to Date
Jordan: 41-31 (4-1 last week); 56.9% winning percentage
Sean: 41-31 (2-3 last week); 56.9% winning percentage
Sean’s Locks: 26-19 (2-3 last week); 57.8% winning percentage
Consensus Picks: 13-9 (1-0 last week); 59.1% winning percentage
Out of Conference Games
Jordan: LSU (+3) vs Alabama O/U: 61.5, Oklahoma (-5.5) vs Oklahoma State O/U: 61.5
LSU vs Alabama carries some serious weight this year. In other years both might be undefeated and be able to take a quality SEC loss (some say these are better than wins). This year that isn’t true. Both need to win to stay alive in the CFP discussion, and yes LSU is still in that discussion. Jayden Daniels is amazing. I’m picking him, not Brian Kelly, not Jalen Milroe to come away with a win in this game. Am I trying to will into existence this upset? Yes. Still, LSU outscoring Alabama is 100% a good possibility. Straight upset is +132 and parlaying it with over 61.5 is +303 on FanDuel.
Bedlam looks a little different this year. Oklahoma were in pole position for the CFP after their win against Texas. Here are their games since then: W 31-29 (UCF) and L 33-38 (@ Kansas). The Sooners were supposed to have their scare, they just didn’t learn their lesson. Meanwhile since the Cowboys lost at home 7-33 against South Alabama and 27-34 against Iowa State to fall to 2-2, here are their wins: 29-21 (K State), 39-32 (Kansas), 48-34 (WVU), 45-13 (Cincy). Oklahoma State wants this win. Oklahoma needs it. My gut says that OK State covers +5.5, but I will go with my second over 61.5 pick as I just don’t see the winner of this game not having 35+ points.
Sean: Washington (-3) vs USC, O/U: 75.5 // Kansas State (+4.5) vs Texas, O/U: 49.5
Washington and USC are two preseason Pac-12 favorites whose seasons are quickly going in the wrong direction. Yes, the Huskies are still undefeated. But they have struggled mightily against a couple teams with four combined wins over the past two weeks. USC, meanwhile, had to outscore Cal 50-49 to break their two-game skid. Both of these teams have below average defenses and two of the nation’s best quarterbacks. This could very well be a matchup of last year’s Heisman winner and this year’s. If USC plays like they have the past three weeks, Washington should win. But something tells me USC is going to come out with a different energy. Nonetheless, I don’t love the spread at 3. The over/under sounds absurd at 75.5, but that’s an estimated score of 39-36 or so. What have we seen from these two teams that makes us think they won’t both score 40? It might be a bold move, but I’m taking the over in what should be the season’s premier shootout.
Kansas State has been a different team since giving freshman QB Avery Johnson snaps to supplement Will Howard. The Wildcats are averaging 40ppg over their past three games thanks to one of the nation’s strongest rush attacks (5th nationally in rushing offense). Texas, meanwhile, will again be without Quinn Ewers. Redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy wasn’t necessarily impressive in relief of Ewers last week, going 16-25 for 170 yards, 2 TDs, an INT, and no impact on the ground. Texas’ run defense has been stout this season, but they did give up over 200 rush yards at 6 yards per carry against Oklahoma. This will be a similar challenge. KSU will try to play keep away with the Texas offense, meaning the Longhorns will need to take advantage of every offensive possession. If Texas gets down early, I’m not sure they’re equipped to mount a comeback without Ewers. The Texas defense should be able to come up with enough big plays to get the win, but Kansas State covers at +4.5
Jordan’s Upset Moneyline Pick of the Week
Last week Kentucky couldn’t quite get there against Tennessee. However, I teased several other picks one of which was WVU to win and so if you hated my Kentucky argument you might have made money on the Mountaineers.
So, I thought let’s run through a bunch of quick games and I’ll give you my official pick.
Don’t kid yourself with Clemson against Notre Dame. Not this year.
I already gave away that I like LSU to upset Bama.
Oklahoma State at +202 at home in the Bedlam Series is the fun bet for the 3:30 games.
Georgia showed us in Gainesville why you shouldn’t pick Mizzou even at +520.
Two tempting little upsets are Kansas (+112) over Iowa State and Arizona (+116) to prove again that they’re pretty darn good against UCLA at home.
But my official pick is a swing for the fences at +680 the 1-7 East Carolina Pirates to upset 7-1 Tulane. Truly, this should be a be a bigger line then +680, because the Pirates have given no reason to be considered a real upset threat. I don’t often endorse sucker bets, but I have a feeling after three straight weeks of games being decided by 10 points or less to not great competition that the Green Wave are going to drop one soon. Here’s to hoping that $5 becomes $34!
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Arizona vs UCLA U51.5 (-110)
- Iowa vs Northwestern U31.5 (-118)
- Minnesota ML vs Illinois (-128)
- Alabama ML vs LSU (-166)
- Penn State ML vs Maryland (-350)
Fanduel Odds: +1194
In Arizona’s past 4 games, they gave Washington & USC all they could handle, beat the brakes off Washington State on the road, and upset Oregon State. Much of that recent success has come off the back of a stout defense. The under has hit in four of the Bruins’ last six games, as well as seven of UCLA’s last eight. Both of these teams lean on their defense, with UCLA’s being one of the best in the nation. The under should cash this Saturday.
Iowa unders do nothing but hit dating back to last season. Even with a shocking 29.5 total in Iowa’s last outing, the under still cashed with ease. Enter Northwestern – a team who plays scrappy defense, struggles along the offensive line, and picked up a couple wins thanks to inexplicably great performances from two different quarterbacks. I don’t see any reason why this game script should stray from what we’ve seen all season from Iowa.
Illinois has strung together some nice wins in the back half of the season after a disappointing start. But one of these teams is competing for a spot in the Big Ten Championship, and I expect them to play like it. Minnesota should be able to run the ball on Illinois like many teams have this season and force some turnovers from Luke Altmyer. As much as the Gopher defense has struggled for the majority of the season, they have been good for a handful of big plays every game. That will be the difference in this matchup.
I trust Nick Saban to get revenge on LSU for last season’s heart-stopping win. Jayden Daniels is great, but this Tiger defense should struggle to contain an Alabama offense that is finally finding it’s footing thanks to the help of an improved run game. Only two teams have beaten Saban in back-to-back seasons: Ole Miss in 2014-15 and LSU in 2010-11.
I know Penn State football hasn’t been pretty for the majority of the season, but they still boast a ball-hawking defense against a Maryland team that has been fairly loose with the football. Taulia should be able to keep the Terps in the game for a while, but I haven’t seen anything from the Terps over the past two and a half games to make me think they are ready to pull off this upset. Taking Penn State ML boosts this parlay’s odds over +1000. I don’t think there’s much risk in it.
Prop Picks
This column ran long this week. Going rapid fire through the prop picks. Our logic for each is self explanatory or touched on in another section.
- Jayden Daniels ALT Passing TDs 3 or More +162 on FanDuel
- Taulia Tagovailoa O 1.5 TDs +124
- Final is a pick your favorite under of the comically large lines Washington has against USC’s Defense:
- Michael Penix Jr Under 3.5 TDs -118
- Michael Penix Jr Under 383.5 Passing Yards -114
- Dillon Johnson Under 85.5 Rushing Yards -114
Sean’s 5 Locks
Sean’s 5 Locks are featured weekly on The Floor Slap Podcast. Unfortunately, there is no podcast for week 10 due to extenuating circumstances (life gets in the way sometimes). But be sure to check back next Wednesday when the podcast will return to recap week 10 and preview a loaded week 11 slate!