by Jordan Beckley and Sean Szymczak
What a horrible week.
I mean the football was great! But man did we take some losses.
Sean went 3-4 in his Big Ten picks and Jordan went 1-6 his picks. Gulp.
We flipped our normal week of doing well in Big Ten bets and missing on out of conference. We hit 2.5 of our 4 out of conference picks with the half being the over in the Bama LSU game. Jordan’s Upset Moneyline featured 3 correct upset picks and the actual pick of Eastern Carolina was oh so close. Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay was 4/5 correct. Even our props came back positive at 3 out of 5.
The Big Ten shipwreck was just so bad that our bottom lines are still hurting.
Yet, just like Oklahoma fans after back to back losses, we have to pull ourselves together and get ready for another College Football Saturday.
The Big Ten takes center stage this week too with Penn State hosting the Michigan Stalions – I mean Wolverines. James Franklin and Drew Allar have a perfect opportunity to make every Big Ten fan happy by upsetting the Fightin’ Harbaughs. Or Michigan wins and we set up potentially the most contentious meetup in the history of The Game for Ohio State and Michigan.
Beyond the Nittany Lions’ Big Noon Kickoff, it perfectly lines up that we have four ranked matchups with Utah Washington, Tennessee Missouri, Ole Miss Georgia and USC at Oregon.
This has all the makings to be the best betting guide yet.
Picking Every Big Ten Game – Week 11
Michigan (-5.5) at Penn State O/U: 45.5
- Michigan is beating Big Ten opponents by 38ppg. They are 4-4-1 against the spread this season, but 3 of their losses ATS came in the non-conference. Their lone conference loss ATS was this past weekend against Purdue.
- Only 1 of Michigan’s opponents rank within the top 100 nationally in total & scoring offense: UNLV of the Mountain West. They are 40th in total offense and 16th in scoring offense.
- Penn State is among the best in the nation at three things: taking care of the football, stopping the run, and getting after the quarterback.
- Michigan’s offensive line is not nearly as dominant as the past two years. They are 43rd nationally in yards per carry. This means JJ McCarthy might have to win this game with his arm. But he’s 110th nationally in pass attempts per game. Is he ready to throw a high volume of passes if his run game falters?
- Penn State started to open up the offense more last week in a 51-15 stomping of Maryland. Now nine games into the season, will they utilize some offensive wrinkles that they haven’t shown yet?
- In order for Michigan to win, McCarthy will need to utilize his legs, push the ball downfield, and make good decisions. We’ve seen him do that. In order for Penn State to win, Drew Allar and his receivers will need to go above and beyond anything we’ve seen this season.
- Whoever wins the turnover battle likely wins the game.
- I’m staying away from the spread in this game because of how unproven Michigan is. Yes, their defense seems flawless. But they haven’t been tested.
- The Ohio State vs Penn State game total ended at 32 – do we think this game is going to go much differently than that?
Indiana (+6.5) at Illinois, O/U: 43.5
- Illinois is 2-7 ATS this season, while Indiana is surprisingly 5-4.
- Over the past two games (including a road trip to Penn State), Indiana is allowing less than 3 yards per carry and QB Brendan Sorsby has a QB Rating of 163. That’s exactly Quinn Ewer’s rating on the season.
- Illinois QB Luke Altmyer’s status is still in question. If he’s out, John Paddock would be up again. In his lone season as a starter last year at Ball State, Paddock completed 60% of his passes, had a 9:7 TD:INT, and averaged 227 pass yards per game. But he’s not nearly as mobile as Altmyer.
- Both teams are playing their best football of the season right now. Even so, neither team has been able to run the ball very well. And both teams tend to lose the TO battle. Illinois is 90th nationally with a -3 TO margin, and Indiana is 115th at -6.
- Indiana needs to win out to reach a bowl game, but that’s not out of the question with games against Michigan State & Purdue coming up. Illinois is not out of the Big Ten West race but they need to win out to have a shot. Plenty for both teams to play for.
- I don’t think any of the teams at the bottom of the Big Ten are a full touchdown better than any of the other teams – especially in a game where the crowd won’t be much of a factor like this one. 6.5 just seems like a lot.
Maryland (-2.5) at Nebraska, O/U: 44.5
- Nebraska QB Heinrich Haarberg – who took over in their 4th game – has more rushing yards than anyone on Maryland. This Terp offense hinges entirely on Taulia’s right arm. He’s talented, but he’s also committed 6 turnovers in their past 4 games.
- The Husker defensive front is ferocious. They are top-15 nationally in sacks, total defense, and rush defense. But their pass defense has been susceptible to deep shots and they don’t force many turnovers.
- The Terps are walking into the the loudest environment they will have played in all season long. As has been the case all year long, they won’t be able to run the ball. It’ll have to be the Taulia show, which likely means he’s good for a couple turnovers.
- Despite elevating this offense since taking over, Nebraska fans have soured on Heinrich Haarberg. He’s not a threat to throw the ball deep and he hasn’t been taking care of the football. Is there a chance we’ll see former 4-star Chubba Purdy (brother of Brock)?
- Maryland and Nebraska have the same record. But it seems like Maryland’s season is spiraling, while Nebraska still controls their own destiny in the West.
- This seems like an evenly matched game on paper. So I’m leaning with the home team who has more to play for.
Rutgers (+1.5) at Iowa, O/U: 28.5
- Iowa football is setting records. Records for how low their points totals are.
- Iowa’s last 3 games had point totals of 21, 22, and 17 points. Those were against teams that all rank outside the top-25 nationally in total and scoring defense. Rutgers is 11th in scoring defense and 21st in total defense.
- This week’s total is the lowest in CFB history breaking Iowa’s record of 31.5 last week
- Rutger’s recent games have been surprisingly high-scoring, with an average game total of 49 points over their past 3 games. But in the two games they’ve played against defenses close to Iowa’s capability (Ohio State & Michigan), they mustered 23 points combined.
- Deacon Hill has completed 42% of his passes on the season at an abysmal 4.4 y/a and a negative TD:INT. Gavin Wimsatt has only been slightly better, completing 47% of his passes at 5.6 y/a and also a negative TD:INT. But at least Wimsatt is a legitimate threat with his legs. Hill is like a tree in the pocket.
- Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai is probably the only impact player on either offense. He already has over 900 rush yards on the season and has been the heartbeat of the Scarlet Knight offense all year.
- Iowa’s defense has been stout all year, but they have been weaker against the run that they have against the pass.
- Both of these defenses are truly elite. Rutgers offense has actually been able to move the ball with some success this year off the legs of Wimsatt & Monangai. But Iowa’s offense has remained stagnant no matter the opponent.
- I’m leaning towards Rutgers pulling off the upset in this game, but having to travel to Kinnick scares me a bit. If you are going to sit down and watch this game, the only way you can enjoy it is if you are rooting against points.
- Iowa and Coach Ferentz can’t keep getting away with this.
Minnesota (+1.5) at Purdue, O/U: 46.5
- If you didn’t know already, Purdue is very bad.
- I have no idea why they are favored even if they are at home
- Minnesota burnt me on a 1.5 point spread last week, but that was for them to win!
- A 26-27 loss this week would hit the over and be a cover!
- I love the over here too, if picking the Gophers scares you.
- Purdue would hit the over on this line in 7 of their 9 games. They truly cannot defend anyone.
Northwestern (+9.5) at Wisconsin, O/U: 42.5
- Both these teams have burned me plenty of times so far this year.
- I don’t trust either on spreads any more.
- Let’s pull a Big Ten and go for an under.
- Northwestern’s offense seems to match the energy of their opponent and Wisconsin is 3-6 against the total this year.
- Each team’s defense is ranked higher in every category than the opposing offense except for Wisconsin’s rush attack.
- If Wisconsin is supposed to be good, covering 9.5 points at home against Northwestern should be a given.
- That’s why I can’t trust it.
Michigan State (+31.5) at Ohio State, O/U: 47.5
- So 31.5 huh?
- The Spartans have lost 7 straight times since the 2015 upset.
- The average margin of victory? 29.7.
- Average margin of victory of the past 6 have been 34.5.
- OSU beats up on MSU even when they are a top 10 opponent. This year’s Michigan State team is definitely not a top 10 team.
- I actually like the over in this one because I think Ohio State is likely to score about 6 touchdowns. Sean doesn’t like it and that makes sense given the Spartan offense.
- Pick your favorite of OSU cover or the over.
| Game | Spread | Total | Jordan’s Pick | Sean’s Pick |
| MICH @ PSU | MICH -4.5 | 45.5 | PSU +4.5 | U45.5 |
| IU @ ILL | ILL -6.5 | 44.5 | IND +6.5 | IND +6.5** |
| MD @ NEB | MD -2.5 | 44.5 | O44.5 | NEB +2.5** |
| RUTG @ IOWA | IOWA -1.5 | 28.5 | U28.5 | U28.5** |
| MINN @ PURD | PURD -1.5 | 47.5 | MINN +1.5 | PURD -1.5 |
| NW @ WISC | WISC -11.5 | 42.5 | U42.5 | NW +11.5** |
| MSU @ OSU | OSU -31.5 | 47.5 | O47.5 | U47.5** |
Record to Date
Jordan 42-37 (1-6 last week)
Sean 44-35 (3-4 last week)
Sean’s Locks 28-22 (2-3)
Consensus Picks 14-12 (1-4)
Out of Conference Picks
Jordan: Utah (+9.5) at Washington O/U: 49.5 // Tennessee (-1.5) at Mizzou O/U: 58.5
Over 49.5 in Utah Washington is a line that you need to get in on now. The Huskies have hit over that in 7 of 9 games. Utah has had 3 of their best offensive games in the past 4 game scoring 34, 34 and 55 even if admittedly that was against Cal, USC and Arizona State. If you don’t believe in the over that means you believe Washington will blow them out or that the Husky defense will hold the Utes. Yeah… if you believe that go for the cover. I like the Over here even when it was higher.
I will continue to pick against Joe Milton and Tennessee. There are a lot of reasons to like the Vols though. They had a tune up with UConn last week while Mizzou just fought their heart out against Georgia. Tennessee’s offense is ranked higher across the board over the Tigers’ D. At the same time the Vols defense stops the run better than Mizzou can run it. I think it is fair to like Josh Heupel more than Eli Drinkwitz. The public is about 2/3 in favor of Tennessee, but I told you I’m going to keep picking against Tennessee. Give me Brady Cook and the Tigers in Memorial Stadium to cover, hell I might even do a money line even at +102 odds.
Sean: Ole Miss (+10.5) vs Georgia, O/U: 58.5 // Miami (+14.5) vs Florida State, O/U: 50.5
Ole Miss is a high-flying attack that operates with a lot of tempo – a stark contrast to anything Georgia has seen this season. But that might play into the Bulldogs’ favor, as they like to control the clock. Georgia can sling it if they need to, though. Carson Beck is playing his best football of the season and can be counted on to take care of the football. The Georgia defense hasn’t been quite as dominant as years past, so I expect Jaxson Dart to get his thanks to his elite receiving trio of Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins, & Dayton Wade. That being said, I don’t trust the Ole Miss defense as far as I can throw them. They are 61st in total defense, 46th in scoring defense, and 46th in turnovers forced. The Rebels have played one elite offense (LSU) and gave up over 600 yards and 49 points. They can get after the QB, but Georgia has is 10th nationally in fewest sacks allowed. It seems like whatever Ole Miss does well, Georgia has a counter for. I’ve been saying all season long that Ole Miss is overrated. I think the nation will find out exactly how overrated they are when they walk into Athens in primetime. Georgia makes their biggest statement of the season and covers -10.5 against the Rebels at home.
Miami walks into Tallahassee looking to snap a two-game losing skid to their rivals. Miami hasn’t particularly been impressive of late. They squeaked by the ACC’s bottom-feeder Virginia two weeks ago and lost to NC State this past week in a game in which they outgained the Wolfpack but turned the ball over 4 times and lost 20-6. If they have a chance in this game, it’ll be because the status of FSU’s top two receivers are in question. Keon Coleman & Johnny Wilson both missed last week’s game against Pittsburgh and were missed dearly. It’s even more significant when you consider how the Seminole run game has struggled for the majority of the season. We likely won’t know their status until close to kickoff, but the outlook doesn’t sound abundantly optimistic. Although the Hurricane offense is often riddled with mistakes, they still offer a much bigger challenge than the Panthers. Something tells me the rivalry ambience will bring a different fire out of Miami. I’d ideally like to wait to find out if Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson were out before pouncing on Miami +14.5. But whenever that news drops, I’m sure the line will plummet or rise along with it. So I’m gonna take the gamble that they remain out again and take the Hurricanes to cover +14.5 on the road.
Jordan’s Upset Moneyline Pick
Last week I did the thing where I just listed out a bunch of picks and did one official pick.
Maybe I should just change this segment to Upset Money Line Menu and let you pick from the offering of tasty lines.
Here are some I like or don’t like this week:
- Indiana +198 against Illinois is great value
- Penn State +176 if you believe in Karmic punishment for Michigan
- Don’t fool yourself with Bama and Kentucky even if UK is +340
- Put $1 on UConn at +1280 vs JMU because why not
Official pick is to ride with the Duke Blue Devils in a rivalry game. Yes, Riley Leonard isn’t playing, but Duke has the 8th best Defense in the country and UNC has lost to UVA and Georgia Tech. Yeah, I will shoulder the risk and bet Duke at +500.
Sean’s Hail Mary Parlay
- Nebraska ML vs Maryland (+112)
- Missouri ML vs Tennessee (-102)
- Georgia (-10.5) vs Ole Miss (-110)
- Alabama (-10.5) vs Kentucky (-114)
FanDuel Odds: +1404
I’ve been one leg away on my Hail Mary Parlay too many times than I am proud of. But with my odds consistently well over +1000, I just have to hit one to make it all worth it. That’s the healthy way of thinking, right?
Read above and check out this week’s episode of The Floor Slap Podcast for a further breakdown of my Nebraska pick. Details on Georgia vs Ole Miss can also be found above. I feel really good about the Bulldogs handling the Rebels.
I’ve had Tennessee in the same “woefully overrated” bucket as Ole Miss for the majority of the season. Missouri is a more complete team, can limit explosive plays defensively, and gets the Vols at home in what should be a good environment. I think the Tennessee brand is keeping this line closer than it really should be.
Finally, I’m rolling with the Tide over Kentucky. Alabama continues to improve week to week. Jalen Millroe has always been as dangerous of a runner as any in the country, but he’s finally starting to click in the pass game and limit mistakes. That spells danger for the rest of the country. I actually think Alabama will win out the rest of the season – including an upset of Georgia in the SEC Championship. Cash in on these low spreads before the rest of the country catches on.
Prop Picks
JJ McCarthy O17.5 Rush Yards (-114)
- Yes, Penn State has more sacks than anyone else in college football. But McCarthy brings a dimension to the QB position that none of the other QBs they have faced have. As I talked about in this week’s podcast, McCarthy will likely have to extend plays with his legs in order to keep drives alive. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him break off a few big runs. Even if he goes down for a couple sacks, he should have the rushing yardage to make up for it and finish with over 20 rush yards.
Drew Allar O187.5 Pass Yards (-114)
- Allar is averaging 211 pass yards per game so far this season, but he’ll likely need to throw it a little more than he has been in order to knock off the Wolverines. One of my keys to victory for Penn State is to make Michigan respect the intermediate to deep passing attack. With that in mind, I think the Nittany Lions will roll out some offensive wrinkles that we haven’t yet seen. I also think it’s likelier that Penn State has to play catch-up from an early deficit than vice versa. Getting over 200 pass yards seems like a safe bet against a pass defense who has yet to have any real challenge so far this season.
Marvin Harrison Jr O97.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Harrison had a quieter day against one of the nation’s best pass defenses in Rutgers last week, but he had gone over 100 yards in each of the previous 4 games and 6 of his past 7. He is going up against a Michigan State defense that has been absolutely shredded by the Ohio State passing attack in each of the past three matchups. The Spartans have made more progress in the back-end this season, but the secondary remains the weakness of a defense who has a pretty stout front. I think Ohio State will be looking to open up the offense over the next couple weeks in preparation for Michigan State. I also think they will have a little trouble running the football on Saturday. All of that should add up for a huge night for the Heisman hopeful.
Ladd McConkey O67.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- McConkey has stepped up in a big way over the past few weeks in place of Brock Bowers at TE. He has averaged 96 yards on nearly 6 catches over the past three games for Georgia. I’ve already illustrated my concern the Rebel’s pass defense and think McConkey will be in for another big game tonight.
Sean’s 5 Locks
Sean’s 5 Locks (hitting at 56% so far this season) are featured weekly on The Floor Slap Podcast.