In place of an observations article from the first week of Big Ten Basketball, let’s rate six overreactions. Are these Hot Takes: Too Hot, Too Cold or Just Right?
by Jordan Beckley
The first week of College Basketball is usually supposed to suck.
Normally, you watch your team clean up 1 or 2 games against bad teams and feel awesome about them while you are either in misery about your football program, sweating out bowl eligibility, preparing for season defining games or lobbying to get your coach fired.
But, Week 1 of College Basketball delivered in the Big Ten and delivered in such a big way that it warranted a change from a regular observations article to a Goldilocks Take article.
Losses by Rutgers, Michigan State and Maryland have fans reconsidering expectations. While impressive performances from Michigan and Purdue are adding even more sadness to a brutal week for Spartan fans.
Now, it’s just Week 1. Plenty of things will change as the season goes on. Players will get better. Players will get hurt. Not all the takes from the first action end up ringing true.
So, here are six overreactions to Week 1 that I am going to decide are either Too Hot, Too Cold or Just Right.
1. Michigan will finish in the top half of the Big Ten
Perhaps nobody had a better debut week than the Wolverines even if it might have been lost in the mania around the football program.
Nobody knew what to expect with Michigan losing their three leading scorers in Jett Howard, Kobe Bufkin and Hunter Dickinson. There was more mystery with Juwan Howard stepping away from the team for health issues.
Well guess what? Michigan is really good. Dug McDaniel made a huge leap and looks closer to a 1st-Team All-Big Ten player than a 3rd Teamer. Olivier Nkamhoua will be in the same All-Big Ten discussion. However, its major improvements from guys we didn’t expect that have elevated Michigan.
Two big breakouts for Will Tschetter and Terrance Williams have added more layers to the Wolverines. Williams shot 25% last season from 3. He shot 5-9 (55%) in the first two games. He looks like a different player offensively. Tschetter was an afterthought in season previews, but has been a presence off the bench. His minutes have popped and in their win over Youngstown State so did his 4(!) three point jumpers.
The offense (27th on KenPom) is zipping around in Coach Howard’s absence and interim coach Phil Martelli is killing it. Given Indiana, Maryland and Michigan State’s early struggles, this is Too Cold of a take. Michigan looks more likely to be competing for a top four finish.
2. Rutgers will finish in the bottom four of the Big Ten
One of the toughest opening weeks was Rutgers’ start. The Scarlet Knights lost their opener to a solid Princeton team, handled Boston University and skated by Bryant on Sunday.
The part that seems to be concerning for Rutgers fans is that Steve Pikiell doesn’t know his best five. There have been three different starting 5s and none of them seem to be the right closing lineup for the Scarlet Knights.
There have been no-shows from guys like Aundre Hyatt, Gavin Griffiths, Austin Williams, Noah Fernandes, and Derek Simpson. All of those guys have also had a great game or two at the same time. The inconsistency is hurting Rutgers, but that variability might end up being consistent.
The offense doesn’t seem to be there for the Scarlet Knights (150th on Kenpom). I know Mawot Mag has missed all the games, but Rutgers just seems more than likely doomed to scrap around at the bottom of the conference this year. This take seems Just Right.
3. It’s Time to Worry About the Terps
I’m going to spoil this one off the bat. This take is Too Cold.
I’m worried about the Terps and so should every Maryland fan. In my preview I talked about where it could go wrong and that seems to be playing out. The young guys seem to be young. The transfers aren’t making more out of bigger opportunities. The DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jahmir Young back court doesn’t have the right rhythm yet.
The Terps lost two games in three days they shouldn’t have to UAB and Davidson. The concerning part is on the offensive end. Maryland has shot 14-62 (22.5%) from three in three games. The starting backcourt of DHS (1-9) and Young (4-13) have really struggled to space the court next to each other. Jordan Geronimo, Jahari Long and Noah Batchelor aren’t offering much of anything offensively. Julian Reese and Donta Scott have been overtaxed or over covered.
There’s room for optimism with the freshmen Jamie Kaiser and DHS are prone to really improve, but I would be very concerned about the offense and the Terps overall. The losses of Hakim Hart and Don Carey seem very noticeable thru 3 games.
4. Purdue will run away with the Big Ten
Not everybody struggled in week 1.
Purdue looked awesome in their first two games. The scary part for the rest of the Big Ten is that it seems like Purdue’s best players got better. Braden Smith is more confident on the offensive end especially from range. Zach Edey looks better as a passer. Fletcher Loyer looked effortlessly good again in game 1. There are new wrinkles like Lance Jones, Camden Heide and Myles Colvin to be excited about.
While a lot of the other top teams looked shaky, Purdue cruised to two easy victories. Still, this take is Too Hot as the Big Ten always finds a way to be competitive and Purdue hasn’t played anyone yet. The Boilers have a big test tonight with Xavier visiting Mackey Arena (8:30pm EST on FoxSports1).
5. Indiana’s Big Three Frontline won’t work
Indiana’s three most talented players (basically) all play the same position.
Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware are all bigs. Coach Woodson is rightfully trying to play his three best players at the same time, but the early results aren’t positive. With all three of the F/C’s out there the Hoosiers lack any sort of secondary creation. The shooting isn’t threatening enough either and so Xavier Johnson often doesn’t have lanes to attack.
The IU offense has looked cluttered and has stalled out often. Both of the first two games have seen the 5-Star freshman Mgbako be sent to the bench in crunch time in favor of more guard play from Gabe Cupps. Indiana looks better with more passing, shooting and penetration with the three guard lineup.
Malik Reneau has been creative out of the low post or the elbow and Kel’el Ware will be a staple at the 5. Where does that leave Mgbako?
This take is Just Right and that should worry IU fans. How long will Mgbako be happy averaging 16 minutes and 3 ppg? Even with the adjustments, Indiana only scored 69 and 72 against Florida Gulf Coast and Army respectively. It might be a long season on the offensive end for the Hoosiers.
6. Michigan State’s ceiling isn’t National Championship caliber like we thought
Listen, I selected MSU as my National Champion for my boldest prediction and I already have heard from people about it after James Madison.
This take is Too Hot. Malik Hall, Jaden Akins and AJ Hoggard aren’t going 6-33 again this season. MSU shot 1-20 from three and the Dukes still needed overtime to upset the Spartans. This will be great motivation for Izzo to kick the players’ butts in practice.
Are there concerns? Yes. I’m not sure what Hoggard’s place is if Tyson Walker will be this ball dominant. The frontcourt question will likely loom most of the season. Am I underwhelmed with Top-10 recruit Xavier Booker? Yes.
However, the Spartan’s ceiling is still as high as Coen Carr can jump. Carr and Booker will have plenty of time to grow over the course of the season. Roles between the big three of Akins, Walker and Hoggard will be better established over time and after winning more games. Tom Izzo is still one of the best coaches in the Big Ten.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michigan State win against Duke on Tuesday in the Champions Classic. Overreacting to one loss is a major part of Collegiate Athletics, but making big assumptions about MSU this early is definitely Too Hot. The James Madison game is one game in November, and I honestly think Michigan State will be better because of it.