My Love/Hate List for 2024 March Madness

Simple concept. Four 5-12 seeds I Love. Four top 16 seeds I hate. One from Each Bracket. March Madness games start Thursday at noon. Pick wisely.

by Jordan Beckley

So, I did this same concept last year and well I was pretty good at it.

My Love list was no.6 seed Creighton (made Elite Eight), no.7 seed Michigan State (made Sweet 16), no.5 seed Miami (made Final Four), and no.9 Arkansas (upset no.1 seed Kansas, made Sweet 16).

My Hate list was no.3 Baylor (lost to Creighton in Round of 32), no. 2 Marquette (lost to Michigan State in Round of 32), I cheated and put no.6 Iowa State (lost 1st round to Pitt), and I missed on no.3 Gonzaga (made Elite Eight).

Overall, I correctly picked 4 teams to upset their way to the Sweet 16 or further and went 3 for 4 on no. 1-4 seeds that were frauds. I felt so smart doing it I knew I wanted to do it again this year.

It might just be like betting where I’m now due to go 1 for 8 this year OR maybe covering College Basketball gives me a bit of an edge on identifying overrated, untrustworthy programs, teams on a roll, under-seeded teams, etc.

Either way here is one Team I Love and one Team I Hate from each Bracket.

East

Love: Drake

The whole internet fell in love with Indiana State and spectacled Robbie Avila with his many nicknames like Cream Abdul Jabar and Larry Blurred. However, the Missouri Valley Champ that has been overlooked is Drake.

Drake beat Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Championship game aka Arch Madness Title. The Bulldogs are coached by Darian Devries and their star player is his son Tucker Devries. Tucker just repeated as Missouri Valley POY over Robbie Avila aka Milk Chamberlain and logged 27 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists in the MVC championship game.

The Bulldogs boast an impressive 4-1 record vs Quad 1 opponents with their only loss being AT Indiana State. They went 2-1 against the Sycamores, won on the road against a formidable Bradley team, and beat no.10 seed Nevada on a neutral court.

Drake is a small team who doesn’t rebound well, but they score a ton of points efficiently and can really shoot the three. They take care of the ball really well with 16 assists per game and just 9.7 turnovers a game and they are a great free throw shooting team at 76%.

All of those things are a great recipe to beat the team in my Hate list from this bracket…

Hate: Iowa State

So, real quick let’s take a look at how last year’s Power 6 Tournament Champions fared in March Madness.

Purdue – Big Ten Champ – Lost Round 1 to FDU
Marquette – Big East Champ – Lost Round of 32 to Michigan State
Texas – Big 12 Champ – Lost Elite Eight to Miami
Duke – ACC Champ – Lost Round of 32 to Tennessee
Arizona – Pac-12 Champ – Lost Round 1 to Princeton
Alabama – SEC Champ – Lost Sweet 16 to San Diego State

In total, only 2 of the power conference champions made the second weekend and none of them made the Final Four.

Whether it’s less rest, tired legs, more scouting tape for opponents or whatever excuse you want to put, it seems that winning your conference tournament is a better predictor of an early exit than it is a long run.

Let’s look at what Iowa State has done the past few times it won the Big 12 Tournament.

In 2019, Steve Prohm, Marial Shayok, Talen Horton-Tucker and Iowa State won the tourney and lost in the first round to Ohio State.
In 2017, Prohm, Monte Morris, Deonte Burton and Iowa State lost in the Round of 32 to Purdue.
In 2015, Fred Hoiberg, Morris, Georges Niang lost in their first game to no.14 seed UAB.
In 2014, Iowa State did win the Big 12 Tourney and also made the Sweet Sixteen before losing to eventual National Champion UConn.

Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country (actually ahead of Houston now on Kenpom). However, the Cyclones have the 55th best offense which is not a Title winning formula. Even if my Love pick of Drake is wrong, I think Washington State has a very good shot to upset Iowa State.

I think Iowa State has a devastating loss and everyone comes back next year as a Top 3 team a la Purdue this year.

Midwest

Love: Colorado State

One of the rules of filling out your bracket is to always put one team out of the First Four into (at least) the Round of 32 if not the Sweet 16.

So that leaves Colorado (both University and State), Virginia and Boise State. I’m going with Colorado State.

The Rams had an up and down year in a competitive Mountain West. Niko Medved’s team has a cluttered resume at 6-7 in Quad 1 games and 3-2 in Quad 2 games, but they have a high ceiling with wins over Creighton, San Diego State, New Mexico, Utah State, and Colorado this year.

Isaiah Stevens is a lead guard that you can believe in and the Rams’ big weakness of size and rebounding will not be something that Virginia can exploit as they are equally as terrible rebounding the basketball. In the second round Colorado State would face Texas who wouldn’t be a team to be afraid of on the glass. Or honestly be afraid of in general as I would put Texas 5th of the 5 teams from Texas in the NCAA tournament.

Part of analyzing and picking upsets is finding teams with a good draw. I think Colorado State has a great shot at being the First Four team to win 2+ games even if I don’t beating Tennessee is a stretch.

Hate: Creighton

For the record I think it’s cheating to pick a literally limping Kansas as my Hate team for this Bracket. So, I went with Creighton.

I talked in more detail in my recent 9 Things I think I know article why I think Creighton is Fools Gold but here is the sparknotes version:

Creighton doesn’t force turnovers, so the opponent always will have a shot each possession (and therefore a chance to rebound too)
Creighton doesn’t foul and instead relies on funneling players into 3-time Big East DPOY Ryan Kalkbrenner
They have 0 bench and 0 plan if Kalkbrenner is in foul trouble
The Bluejays shoot a ton of threes
They are the definition of a team susceptible to an early exit by a hot shooting opponent or a cold shooting night for themselves…. and those tend to happen in March

Creighton’s starting 5 is up there as one of the best in the country, but there are so many red flags as to why to not trust them.

Sure, the Bluejays could get hot from three, pull off some upsets and easily make the Final Four. However, when we see a high seeded team with warnings signs like Creighton has, consider picking them as your upset team instead of your Cinderella.

I watched Ali Ali and Enrique Freeman win the MAC tournament. The Zips are a talented 14 seed. Plus if Creighton advances they will likely face South Carolina who in another version of this article is on my Love list.

I think the Bluejays are a dangerous team to trust and therefore a perfect candidate to be upset.

West

Love: New Mexico

The committee decided that all of the Mountain West teams would get in, but that all of them (except San Diego State) would get shit seeding and a tough draw.

However, the Lobos make my Love list because of their draw. The Mountain West Tourney Champs get to play Clemson in their first round matchup and honestly the Tigers are the most obvious 6 seed upset team I can remember.

Truly, I don’t know why Clemson is considered a tournament team let alone a no.6 seed. The Tigers are a mediocre performing team with a 10-10 Quad 1&2 record. New Mexico is ranked 10+ spots higher in KenPom and in NET ranking but somehow is 5 seeds lower. New Mexico is already a -1.5 favorite on Fanduel.

I am telling you right now to ride the Mountain West as this will finally be the year of multiple teams making the Sweet 16. Whether it’s my two Love teams of New Mexico and Colorado State or reigning National runner up San Diego State making another run or Utah State upsetting Purdue… two MWC teams will make the second weekend.

Hate: Baylor

The Bears made the Hate list last year and it’s more of the same this year.

There’s a lot of things to like with Baylor’s offense; elite three point shooting, drawing a high volume of free throws, elite talent etc. … Baylor just doesn’t play defense.

The lack of defense explains some of the bipolar finishes they have had this season. Seven losses in Big 12 play and two losses (blown out by Michigan State, loss to Duke) in their three biggest out of conference games isn’t a super inspiring resume.

Baylor plays Colgate in Round 1. Matt Langel and Colgate have won the Patriot League Tournament 4 straight years now. The Raiders have won the regular season Patriot Title 6 straight years. If it wasn’t for Covid, Colgate likely would be looking at six straight bids into the NCAA.

Colgate has come close before but they have lost in the first round of all 5 NCAA appearances. Is this the year they finally breakthrough?

Baylor is full of NBA athletes, but they don’t really impose that physical advantage like Houston does. Baylor isn’t a great matchup for Colgate, but the Raiders shoot the three ball well with almost every non-big being a 36% shooter or better from range. All of these players have years of March Madness experience and know how close they’ve been.

Even if Colgate doesn’t become a Cinderella, I like New Mexico to make it to the Sweet 16 over the Raiders or the Bears.

South

Love: Texas Tech

Last year, none of my Love Teams were higher than a 9 seed. So far I have two 10 seeds and an 11 seed. The odds aren’t as in my favor this time around, but let’s go with a lower seed here in hope of a hit.

Texas Tech at one point was 5-1 and 1st place in the Big East. The Red Raiders have beaten Kansas, Baylor and BYU twice. In his first season, Grant McCasland was able to get Tech to finish 3rd in the Big 12 in the regular season and made the Tourney Semis before losing to Houston by a million for the second time.

The Cougars are a terrible matchup for Texas Tech. The good news is that Texas Tech is set to take on a the opposite of a defensive stalwart in Kentucky, but more on them in a second. I already talked about how Conference Tournament champs fare in the actual tournament and well Tech gets the Cinderella of the ACC in NC State in the first round.

With Kevin Keatts’ job safe, don’t be surprised if the Wolfpack fall back down to earth with a loss to Texas Tech. I’m already fading the Big 12 with Baylor and Iowa State, but the strength of the conference all season was it’s depth so picking a lower team to make a surprise run is more believable in my opinion.

Tech is a balanced team (23 KenPom Offense / 45 KenPom Defense) with veteran talented guards. I like Pop Isaacs and the Red Raiders to make the Sweet 16 and maybe even get a rematch against their Rival Houston in the Elite Eight.

Hate: Kentucky

I have written several times about why Kentucky’s defense will fail them eventually.

The problem with Kentucky this year is you are going to feel stupid no matter where you put them.

If you have them being upset by Oakland in round 1, you’re going to feel so stupid when they win by 46 points.

If you have them in your Final Four, you’re going to feel so stupid when they give up 114 points to the Texas Tech in a round 2 loss.

Kentucky’s defense will doom them, we just don’t know when. The Wildcats NBA talent will make you feel so stupid every round you get wrong if you predict an early exit. The Wildcats defense will make you feel so stupid if you put them far and they get 0 stops in an early upset.

UK is on my hate list, it’s up to you to figure out how far you want to put them. For me this team is similar to 2 years ago when a lot of public favor was behind them and then they lost to St. Peter’s in round 1.

It’s hard to see that happening again but Kentucky did lose to UNC Wilmington in Rupp Arena so the floor is there.

In larger bracket pools differentiating yourself is important and taking Kentucky out early could be the separating factor for you to win your pool.

Well, there you have it.

I LOVE Drake, Colorado State, New Mexico and Texas Tech.

I HATE Iowa State, Creighton, Baylor and Kentucky.

In case I am due for regression after nailing it last year, here are some honorable mentions for my Love list that just missed the cut: Northwestern, UAB, St. Mary’s, College of Charleston, Texas A&M, and as previously mentioned South Carolina.

There I just named so many teams I am sure some of them will make the Sweet 16 and I won’t be totally wrong.

Happy March Madness everyone. Remember to fill out your bracket in Pencil first and then in Pen after the First Four. Pick Wisely!