Selection Sunday has come and went. You’ve probably already filled out your bracket, but what should you expect of your favorite team in Round 1 and beyond? I tell you how to feel. I’m sure you will agree.
by Jordan Beckley
Purdue
vs. 16) Montana State/Grambling State, Friday 7:25 ET on TBS
We all remember what happened with Purdue last year.
Fairleigh Dickinson, who didn’t even win their conference tournament, won their First Four matchup then beat the Big Ten Champ Purdue in a nail biting and ugly 16 seed over a 1 seed matchup.
This year it doesn’t matter who Purdue plays in the first round whether it is Montana State (#213 on KenPom) or Grambling State (#267 on KenPom).
Purdue quite literally needs to bury demons in the first round and bury them by 30+ points.
After Virginia lost to UMBC as a 1 seed, they were down at half the next year to 16 seed Gardner Webb 30-36. The Cavs rallied and won the second half by 21 points. UVA pulled out miracle after miracle on the way to the National Title in an undaunted fashion after that game.
In many ways the first game will be the most uneasy game for the Boilermakers. There likely will be a run at some point by the 16 seed that will make the Purdue faithful think, “It really can’t happen again, can it?”
But Purdue is just too good this year. Zach Edey is somehow better than he was last year as NPOY. In the FDU game Purdue crumbled because they triple teamed Edey and no one could shoot. The Boilers are the 2nd best team in the country at shooting from deep. The Freshman have also grown up. Fletcher Loyer has survived this year’s February slump and seems to be out of it. And Braden Smith is one of the 4 best Point Guards in the country.
Will it be nervy? Absolutely. Will they come out as winners? Certainly…right?
As far as expectations a team with the statistical profile of Purdue should really be shooting for a National Championship… but this is Purdue.
Give Boiler fans truth serum and they will tell you they really hope that Purdue makes the Final Four and sheds the March Choker narrative a little bit. Once they are there then Purdue fans can relax and just hope they come out on top.
Expectations: Final Four or More
Illinois
vs. 14) Morehead State, Thursday 3:10 ET on TruTV
Big Ten Tournament Champion Illinois matches up against a Morehead State team in a matchup of very different styles.
The Illini have the third best KenPom offense and score the 8th most ppg in the country.
Morehead State is the 124th KenPom offense, the 120th scoring offense and rank 335 in pace. The Eagles lost all four of their Quad 1&2 opportunities and went 3-2 in Quad 3. They got blown out by 30 against Alabama and Purdue and by 20 to Penn State. Their most impressive showing was almost beating Indiana in Assembly Hall.
Illinois should simply just have more firepower than Morehead State can handle. Illinois does shoot a ton of threes and could go cold, but then they can just lean on two of the best ISO scorers in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask.
The Illini weren’t remotely tested by any non-power program. Morehead’s greatest strength is an inside-out Big in Riley Minix (20.8 ppg, 36.1% on 4.7 3PA) is something that Illinois won’t be scared of with Coleman Hawkins.
Moving past the first round Illinois would play the winner of BYU or Duquesne. The Dukes also probably don’t have the juice to outscore Illinois, but yeah BYU certainly does. The Cougars actually attempt more threes (32.2) than twos (31.4) and make the 2nd most threes a game.
I actually would love to see the Over/Under for a BYU Illinois game… but I think Illinois is just a better BYU. Sure, the Cougars could get hot and ruin the Illini’s season. I just don’t think that will happen.
Illinois fans have enjoyed the most wins of any Big Ten team the past 5 years under Brad Underwood and they can’t handle another upset before the Sweet 16. Hey, Illini fans don’t look at how the past few Big Ten Tourney Champs have fared!
I think that they expect a minimum of a Sweet 16 appearance and maybe more. Iowa State, Auburn and UConn are a brutal gauntlet to survive, but who knows? Last years number 1 overall Alabama lost in the Sweet 16. UConn could too!
Whatever happens after the Sweet 16 will be an added bonus and could really elevate this year to an All-Timer, but please Brad Underwood just make the Sweet 16 at least.
Expectations: Minimum Sweet 16
Northwestern
vs. 9) Florida Atlantic, Friday 12:15pm ET on CBS
The Wildcats have made just their third NCAA Tournament ever and all of them have been under Chris Collins. Two of them have been with Boo Buie as their best player.
The 1st-Team All Big Ten guard will play his final game in March Madness. Will the final game be to Florida Atlantic or further?
Fun fact, Northwestern has never lost a Round of 64 game! How many programs can say that?
The version of Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic that most people are picturing probably resembles that of FAU’s games against Arizona that went to Double OT or the high scoring thriller the Owls played against Illinois. Or resembles the two OT games Northwestern had versus Purdue.
It could be an All-time 1st round game just to lose to UConn by 25 in the next round.
Florida Atlantic is basically the same team as last year, except for they didn’t go 31-3, winning their regular season and conference tournament. The Owls skated by this year with 8 losses, a 2nd place finish in their first season in the American, and a loss in the American Semifinals. FAU basically got a no.8 seed on reputation alone… which is probably fair.
Northwestern was a top 4 Big Ten team all year with 12 conference wins and lost to a hot Wisconsin team in the Big Ten Tournament and now is a no.9 seed.
Johnell Davis and Boo Buie going head to head is probably the best individual matchup in the first round. These teams themselves are separated by 0.3 in adjusted efficiency as the 41st ranked and 46th ranked Kenpom teams. FAU is awesome offensively and miserable defensively. Northwestern is super efficient offensively but puts up average total scoring numbers.
Can Northwestern keep pace? Will FAU play any defense? Will Matthew Nicholson play? Does it matter given FAU’s bigs?
I think Northwestern can win this game. Could they be giant slayers and beat defending champ UConn in round 2? Probably not.
So for the third straight time in their NCAA appearances, the expectation for the Wildcats is to win a game and fight like hell in a valiant round 2 loss.
Expectations: Win a Game, Fight Like Hell to Win a 2nd
Wisconsin
vs. 12) James Madison, Friday 9:40 ET on CBS
Originally, I had different expectations written out for Wisconsin in my drafts. Then the Badgers went on a run in the Big Ten tournament falling just short to Illinois for the Title itself.
Wisconsin was fun again with AJ Storr being amazing again, Max Klesmit returning from the dead and Chucky Hepburn going on probably his hottest scoring stretch of his career. Greg Gard’s team for about 72 hours was back!
Will they still be back by Friday night? Or will the team who lost 8 of their last 11 leading into the Big Ten Tournament return?
The Dukes of James Madison have had the opposite trajectory winning 13 straight games coming into March Madness. You might remember JMU better for win they beat a Top-5 Michigan State in literally the first game of the season. In that upset, the Dukes’ two best players Terrence Edwards and TJ Bickerstaff combined for 45 points.
James Madison is already a trendy 12 seed over a 5 seed Wisconsin pick and has the lowest Moneyline odds of any of the four 12 seeds.
The Dukes are great at taking care of the ball while also forcing opponents to turn the ball over. They have lots of length, but could be vulnerable in the post. However, Wisconsin has been at it’s best when playing thru its guards not their bigs. James Madison defends the three extremely well with the 5th lowest opponent % in the country.
Wisconsin can’t afford to have a cold night against James Madison.
Still, James Madison is only the 59th best Kenpom team in the country, 52nd in NET ranking, lost their only other two Quad 1&2 games to Appalachian State and didn’t beat the Mountaineers in order to win the Sun Belt.
Michigan State might honestly suck. Wisconsin should still absolutely win this game. Especially, if they even 75% resemble the team that made the Top 10 earlier this year.
After the first round game the Badgers draw either Vermont or most likely Duke. The Blue Devils are a tough draw and I don’t think the general public would meme the Badgers as Chokers for losing that game.
So win one and then fight like hell! Kinda becoming the Big Ten’s motto, but that saying is a healthy approach for any team in March. Greg Gard’s tourney run made people at home forget about their comments about his job security. A confident round 1 win and a competitive game vs Duke will make sure those grumblings stay buried in the offseason.
Expectations: Make us look respectable Greg Gard
Nebraska
vs. 9) Texas A&M, Friday 6:50 ET on TNT
If you didn’t know already the Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA tournament game. They are the only power conference team to not have won at least one at some point in history.
Get ready to hear that over and over again on the broadcast of this game. I can already see the throwback video to their last tournament game followed by the out-of-timeout graphic showing them and other bad history programs after Big Red makes a big second half run to take the lead.
Beyond the tortured history of the Nebraska program this has already been a stellar year for Co-COY Fred Hoiberg and the Huskers. They don’t need to win this game for it to be a good year.
But it’d be a lot cooler if you did.
Nebraska has an electric offense when they hit threes. Sometimes they don’t make them.
Texas A&M is a pretty great team when healthy. The Aggies haven’t always been, but they are right now. Buzz Williams’ team won five straight prior to their SEC semifinal loss to Florida.
The Aggies are a terrible three point shooting team. Like literally one of the 15 worst shooting teams out of all 362 in the country. They give up over 26 threes a game to opponents at a good clip.
A lot of versions of this game involve Nebraska hitting 10 threes and winning easily. The Cornhuskers will not have to face a tough big in this matchup and in fact Rienk Mast will have the advantage over any of TAMU’s bigs.
Nebraska is 16 spots higher in KenPom, is almost confidentially top 36 in both offensive & defensive efficiency, and Keisei Tominaga is the most obvious March Madness sweetheart since… Steph Curry.
Big Red needs to win this game.
Nebraska just extended Fred Hoiberg so hopefully the good seasons will keep on rolling. But can we still cap this special year off with a win in March to stamp it as the best season in program history?
Expectations: First Tournament Win Ever
Michigan State
vs. 8) Mississippi State, Thursday 12:15 ET on CBS
Virginia might be the only other team who limped into the tournament in worse condition than Michigan State.
I might be the most down on Michigan State and I picked them to win the National Title in my increasingly bold article at the beginning of the year! Sorry, not linking that one.
Clark Kellogg described the Spartans end of the season by saying they “may not be winning any of these games, but man are they playing better” which perfectly captures this MSU season.
We all know that they’re capable of beating good teams… they just don’t beat them.
Mississippi State is a good team.
Yes, the ringing cowbells (oh, sorry Bulldogs) went 8-10 in the SEC. State also beat Tennessee twice, Auburn once and were a Reed Sheppard game winner away from going to OT with Kentucky. Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith are studs and Mississippi State has a top 20 Kenpom defense.
MSU has a Top 10 defense by the way so maybe consider the under here.
But this is March right? And it’s Tom Izzo!
The Spartans were super inconsistent last year too before being a possession away from the Elite Eight.
I’m sure some fans are blindly believing in Izzo and a turnaround. I’m also sure there are plenty of fans who are just as down on them after a really disappointing season.
MSU does get the “weakest no.1 seed” in North Carolina so who knows. This is March Madness for a reason. So what the hell! Sign us up for one more run with Tyson Walker, Malik Hall and AJ Hoggard.