A chalky first weekend has left us with an awesome Sweet 16 lineup and even more unanswered questions. Here are my picks for the 8 biggest ones.
by Jordan Beckley
1. Will Kentucky Fire Coach Calipari?
One of the few big upsets of the first round in this year’s tournament was Jack Gohlke and Oakland beating no.3 seed Kentucky and Coach Calipari in the Round of 64 on Thursday night.
If you are even remotely connected to CBB twitter you have probably seen the recent struggle recap of Coach Cal but let’s rehash it.
- 2020-21 season: went 9-16 missed the Tournament
- 21-22 season: Lost to no.15 seed St. Peter’s in Round of 64
- 22-23 season: Lost to no.3 seed Kansas State in Round of 32 as no.6 seed
- 23-24 season: Lost to no. 14 seed Oakland in Round of 64
- Only one SEC Tournament win in that span
Kentucky fans have lost interest in the NBA draft picks and the super-max contracts of their alumni. As I heard one fan put it this weekend, “It’s time Cal did his actual job and win actual college basketball games!”
The National Championship winning head coach has consistently grabbed top recruiting classes, yet has not converted them to top results. After briefly trying to build thru portal and top recruits, Calipari pivoted back this season to just one or two transfers and one of his best freshman classes ever.
At times it was amazing. Other times it looked rough. Maybe it was always doomed to fail.
Jay Wright said in studio after Kentucky lost that in the era of NIL and the Transfer portal the time of winning with Freshmen is over… Jay Wright’s also had a very different coaching philosophy based on red-shirting top recruits and only playing upperclassmen.
Coach Calipari has yet another top recruiting class coming in next year with 6 Top-75 players incoming. With a huge wave of super-seniors finally losing eligibility, I think there will be massive turnover and that Kentucky would likely be a preseason Top-5 team.
Yet, the Big Blue Nation have seen this movie before. It’s been a decade since their last Final Four and it’s been more than that since the one National Title Calipari has won. I think Kentucky is ready for a new Director.
Now, who knows who would be the new Head Coach and that is a whole other unanswerable question.
2. Can Anyone Stop UConn or are the Huskies destined to repeat?
The reigning National Champion UConn looked excellent in their opening matchups burying both opponents in the first half.
The Huskies were up 44-10 on no. 16 seed Stetson with 4 minutes left in the first half on their way to a 39 point win in round one. Uconn followed that up by being up 40-18 at halftime to Northwestern before letting off the gas a bit in a 75-58 win in round 2.
Dan Hurley’s team has continued to get better and better as the season has gone on. Entering the NCAA Tournament UConn had just surpassed Houston to be the no. 1 overall KenPom team. Now, the Huskies are no.1 on KenPom by 1.38 in adjusted efficiency margin.
For most of the season, Houston was no.1 by 3 or more points above UConn and Purdue. Now, UConn has jumped up to the no. 3 offense and the no.8 overall adjusted defense.
Watching UConn run thru all the motions of it’s offense is a thing of beauty. The ability of all of their players to be able to read the defense, cut to open space and to be able to pass to the open man makes them seem unstoppable. The Huskies just always get an open look.
The Sweet 16 is a rematch of last year’s National Championship vs San Diego State. With all due respect to Jaedon LeDee and the Aztecs who have had another fine season, they stand no chance against UConn.
A potential stalemate with Iowa State’s defense or a shootout with Illinois’ offense is intriguing but ultimately neither seem well rounded enough to hold up to UConn in this form.
North Carolina and Arizona would provide a challenge, but the best threat to UConn being a first repeat Champion since 2007 Florida will likely be Purdue or Houston if either of those teams can make it there.
3. Can Purdue repeat as Maui Invitational Champs?
The Boilermakers were just as impressive as UConn in the opening weekend with a 78-50 win over Grambling State and a 106-67 annihilation of Mountain West Champion Utah State on Sunday.
The wins set up Purdue to face no.5 seed Gonzaga for the third time in the past 17 months. The last time the two met was in Hawaii 5 months ago when Purdue won 73-63. The year before Purdue’s coming out party was beating Gonzaga and Duke in back to back days to win the Phil Knight Invitational.
The Boilers won the Maui Invitational this year with a stacked field and that stacked field could be it’s path to that Title could be their path to the National Title.
Believe it or not Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette have gotten better since their November losses to Purdue. But so have the Boilermakers.
Purdue has had 12 different players score in their opening game including multiple walk-ons getting buckets. Cam Heide scored 18 points in the two showings as Purdue’s 7th man with multiple dunks and threes. Myles Colvin had one of the best stretches of his career during Purdue’s huge run against Utah State in the first half. That big Boilermakers run was a 26-9 run when down 24-23 all with their 1st Team All-Big Ten point guard Braden Smith on the bench for basically the whole stretch.
Trey Kaufman-Renn had a monster game vs Utah State’s two big look. Fletcher Loyer is as confident as ever. Matt Painter made a point to get Mason Gillis a couple open looks at three to solidify his confidence. OH and Zach Edey had 20 points and 10 boards AT HALF against Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor.
Purdue played incredibly well in front of a lively Indianapolis home crowd. This weekend they will travel to Detroit to play a team they have already beaten in Gonzaga and potentially another team they have history with in Tennessee. In all scenarios the Old Gold and Black should have much more support behind them than their opponent.
The stars seem to be lining up for Purdue to make their first Final Four since 1980. However, the stars lined up in 2022 when Jaden Ivey and the Boilers had St. Peter’s as their draw in the Sweet 16. The Final Four was all but delivered in 2019 for Carsen Edwards and Purdue before Virginia miraculously forced Overtime.
Purdue fans know heartbreak. We get to find out next week if Boiler Ball finds a new way to break fans’ hearts or if this year’s story is different.
4. How far can NC State go?
This March’s Cinderella happens to be a school who has won Two National Titles in its history.
NC State have won 7 straight win-or-go-home games including dispatching the actual Cinderella of Oakland to make the Wolfpack’s first Sweet 16 in a decade.
NC State is being led by the double DJ combo of Horne and Burns. DJ Burns is earning the love of America with his big body bullying in the low post while players like Michael O’Connell, Jayden Taylor, Ben Middlebrooks and Casey Morsell have each had their moment in this run.
There will be plenty written about Kevin Keatts’ job saving run and the Wolfpack this week, but typically the Sweet Sixteen Cinderella’s usually lose before earning another week of admiration.
Can NC State actually make the Final Four?
The Wolfpack have a very difficult matchup with Marquette who is on a mission after being bounced early last year by Michigan State in the Round of 32. The Golden Eagles are a difficult matchup with the guard power of Chase Ross, Kam Jones, and All-American Tyler Kolek who is putting up 20 points, 11 assists and 5 boards a game.
Can DJ Burns bruise Oso Ighodaro down low? Do the Wolfpack have one more in them? If they do they could meet rival Duke in the Elite Eight after beating them in the ACC tournament to really kick off their magical run.
NC State is the lowest rated KenPom team (52nd) left in the NCAA tournament by nearly 30 spots. Everything points to them losing to Marquette, but also everything pointed to NC State losing in the ACC tournament and never even making the Big Dance.
5. Why does the transfer portal open before the end of the season for the good teams?
On the main stage, the general public has been consuming March Madness at a record amount.
Meanwhile in the background, players are being tampered with, taking visits, and bought and sold in the transfer portal.
The transfer portal is already open and plenty of players have already entered. Big Ten players like Cliff Omoruyi and Dug McDaniel are some of the highest rated players that have been announced. Other players who actually made March Madness have long been rumored to be entering the portal… which is weird.
Virginia Tech guard Rodney Rice announced less than 24 hours after the Hokies were eliminated in the NIT by Ohio State that he had committed to Maryland. Expect more announcements like that this week with more teams eliminated.
One player announced that he will be visiting Gonzaga within the next week or two before the Zags beat Kansas. Which translates to Mark Few told this player, “Hey, once we lose in March Madness we’ll fly you out to Spokane and show you around.” Iowa State and TJ Otzelberger are preparing for a Sweet 16 matchup and still landed top transfer portal target Dishon Jackson from Charlotte.
Listen I know coaches don’t actually spend 19 hours a day crushing film during March Madness, but it’s dumb that the Coaches who have done so well this season to be this far in the Big Dance still need to be also recruiting during the middle of it.
Just take it from Bill Self in his post-game presser after losing to Gonzaga and who may or may not have stolen 5-Star Liam McNeeley from his letter of intent to Indiana midseason…
If we are going to have Free Agency in College Basketball, it should be at least after we crown a National Champion.
6. What wins between an unstoppable force (Illinois’ Offense) or an immovable object (Iowa State’s Defense)?
Big Ten Tournament Champion Illinois advanced to the Sweet 16 after demolishing two double digit seeds Morehead State and Duquesne putting up 85 and 89 in each game.
Big 12 Tournament Champion Iowa State advanced to the Sweet 16 after holding South Dakota State and Washington State to 65 points or less.
Illinois have now risen to the no.1 KenPom Offense.
Iowa State has now risen to the no.1 KenPom Defense.
Illinois has the 92nd ranked defense. Iowa State has the 49th ranked offense.
Both have leveraged extreme efficiency on one end to a very successful season. Now, one of them will advance to the Elite Eight and one will lose.
The narrative of why the losing team lost is already written. But which one will lose?
History and old man logic says that “Defense wins Championships.” So, the Cyclones should win.
Recent NBA trends support the idea of simply outscoring your opponent. So, Illinois should win?
Illinois is a good not great shooting team who isn’t doomed on a poor shooting night and isn’t rushed into mistakes and turnovers. Iowa State forces an insane 17 turnovers a game and closes off lanes allowing the 2nd fewest 2pt attempts in the country.
Will Terrence Shannon Jr. be able to draw fouls at the same clip he does to everybody else? Those free points at the line could be a huge difference to swing it one way or another.
Will Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert be able to score enough to keep pace if Illinois gets rolling? Can Illinois force Iowa State into more turnovers than they do against most teams so they can get into transition easier?
If style clashes interest you, this matchup was made for you. Duke’s no.5 Offense vs Houston’s no.2 Defense is a close runner up.
Personally, I would love to give Dan Hurley truth serum and find out who he’d rather see in the Elite Eight (sorry, San Diego State), but he might actually be so angry all the time that truth serum doesn’t work.
7. Wait, why did Dusty May pick the Michigan job over the Louisville opening?
As an outsider, it’s a little weird seeing Michigan fans’ strained relationship with AD Warde Manuel.
Michigan just won the National Championship in Football. Manuel didn’t hire Jim Harbaugh, but he also didn’t fire him too early like the fanbase wanted. He also pulled the plug on Juwan Howard when it would have been easy to give the legacy coach another year after a weird health season. People in the industry respect him too as Manuel was just named the Chair of the College Football Playoff Committee for it’s first season with 12 teams. Finally, Manuel just pulled off a coup by stealing maybe the hottest name in College Basketball by hiring Dusty May to replace Juwan Howard.
Manuel stole the Florida Atlantic head coach from Louisville who may or may not have been setting up a press conference already to introduce him when the news broke that May accepted the Michigan job. Now, I’m sitting here wondering why?
Why did Dusty May choose to go to Michigan over Louisville?
Why would you choose to go to a school that denied two All-Americans in Caleb Love & Terrence Shannon Jr. admissions in this transfer portal era? Why would you choose a Football school who may not be competitive in the NIL marketplace over a school that is the Pro sports team for a major city in Louisville?
Basically why would you pick a place that seems objectively harder to recruit in over a place that is a Top-5 easiest place to recuit at?
This Woj tweet implies that the Boosters really had an effect on him. The money ($3.75 million a year) would only make him the 4th highest paid Big Ten coach and only $250,000 ahead of basically everyone else in the conference. So, did they make a big promise to commit more money to NIL?
The other big elephant in the room is that Michigan and more so the Big Ten is positioned extremely well to survive and thrive in conference realignment. Meanwhile, the ACC is currently being sued by its top schools in an effort to escape the conference. Louisville is one of the stepchildren of realignment once joining the ACC to survive it now the Cardinals seem to not fit into the plans of the SEC or Big Ten.
I just am surprised that was enough to convince Coach May to pick what I think common opinion would be worse job. But hey! The effects of realignment in Football continue to create strange waves in College Basketball that we can’t predict.
Hopefully, this win for Michigan over Louisville gives them some closure over their loss to them in the 2013 National Title game.
8. Are we going to get the Caleb Love vs. RJ Davis?
We all know this story.
Caleb Love and RJ Davis made the Final Four as teammates at North Carolina. Together they beat Duke in Coack K’s last home game and then ended Coach K’s career with a loss to the Tar Heels in the National Semifinals. The backcourt partnership were this close to winning it all against Kansas too.
They run it back next season as preseason no.1 team and well utter failure. A potential rift between the team never allowed them to achieve what their talent dictated. UNC missed the tournament and Caleb Love transferred out.
Now, RJ Davis is the leader of the ACC Champion Tar Heels and an All-American. While, Caleb Love is the leader of the PAC-12 Champion Wildcats and an All-American.
If Arizona beats Clemson and if North Carolina beats Alabama we will have these two air out their grievances on the court with a spot in Phoenix on the line.
Insert the cheesy newspaper headline, “No Love Lost.” Honestly works for either team winning.
I personally chose Alabama to come out of this region to try and not go too chalky. Bama could absolutely win. Clemson is the exact kind of team that Arizona got tripped up by in conference play that prevented them from being the no. 1 seed.
But now that we are just one win away… can we get this game please? Can the Basketball Gods give us this game for the record books? Can we get this game to shut up the people who say College Basketball doesn’t have stars?
If it’s been chalk this far maybe we can all be cool with a little bit more chalk to give us some of the most epic Elite Eight and Final Four matchups we have seen.
I can’t wait to watch it all and break it down with you!