Follow Sean & Jordan throughout the 2024 college football season as they give picks for EVERY Big Ten game & compete in the FanDuel $100 Balance Challenge
by Sean Szymczak & Jordan Beckley
Not all weeks are winners!
A poor slate last week also lead to a poor performance for our picks. Now, we didn’t get ran out of the gym like Purdue did at home to Notre Dame. Instead, our picks were just mediocre and not good enough to pull a profit.
Largest Cover: Illinois -19.5 vs CMU!
- The Illini won 30-9 vs the Chippewas making them 3-0 and ranked no.24 in the AP poll.
- Their Friday night Fox Primtime game in Lincoln will now be a ranked game and will be making an appearance in the Cover 3
Lowest Under: Minnesota 27-0 vs Nevada
- In a week where Purdue gave up 66 to Notre Dame, Michigan & Arkansas State put up 46 total points and Iowa almost beat their points total by themselves, Minnesota is keeping the faith of the Big Ten with low scores
Bad Beat of the Week: Washington 19- Washington State 24
- The Cougars held the Huskies out of the endzone on a goal line stand in the final minute of the quarter. It didn’t affect the spread as Wazzu had that covered but anyone invested in the outcome of the Apple Cup either financially via the Money line or emotionally that stung.
- Also shoutout to Arkansas State who scored a touchdown with 8 seconds left to make the game 28-16 and then went for two and got it bringing the point total to 46. The FanDuel over/under line was set at 47.5 but I am sure some poor soul lost money over that conversion on some book.
Surely, Week 4 will be an improvement. We have a Friday primetime showdown in Lincoln, two of the Big 12’s best in Oklahoma State vs Utah, Oklahoma also has a big one hosting no.6 Tennessee, and Michigan looks to repair the Big House when USC comes to town. Only two byes this week for the Big Ten so plenty of games to get into. Let’s drop into coverage…
Cover 3
Sean & Jordan‘s 3 Big Ten Locks of the Week
Sean: 2-1 last week (7-2 overall)
Jordan: 1-2 last week (5-4 overall)
Sean’s 1st Pick:
USC (-4.5) vs Michigan
The “Quarterback Mismanagement of the Year” award goes to Sherron Moore with how he has handled Michigan’s QB room. It’s already one of the least talented QB rooms in the power conferences, and now Moore is forcing a change to a QB who has 7 career pass attempts and couldn’t beat out Davis Warren in the off-season. Moore also lost any chance at surprising USC with how they handle their QB situation by announcing this move on Monday.
In short, a Michigan offense that has struggled even against Fresno State and Arkansas State does not have much more reason for optimism as they face a USC defense that might be the most improved in all of college football. USC hasn’t forced a lot of turnovers or negative plays so far, but they are great tacklers and have exceled in 3rd downs, where they are allowing teams to convert only 29% of the time. They will try to force Michigan into 3rd & passing-down situations, where I’m not sure Alex Orji will be able to consistently come up with the throws he needs to make.
USC’s offense simply has too many receiving options for Michigan’s secondary. Will Johnson might be the best corner in the country, but no one else has stepped up opposite him so far. If the Wolverines want to limit USC’s high-flying offense, they will need to generate a lot of pressure on Miller Moss to disrupt the rhythm he has with his receivers. Josiah Stewart, Kris Jenkins, and Mason Graham will need to have big days.
I think Michigan’s front can do enough to limit USC’s explosive plays early on in the game. But if they want to win, Michigan’s offense will need to win the turnover battle and stay out of too many 3rd & obvious passing down situations. For a team that has a -4 TO margin through 3 games and has not generated any traction in the passing game, I’m not sure they will be able to step up where it counts.
Michigan’s defense keeps this game close going into the 2nd half, and a couple trick plays might even give Michigan an early lead. But the Wolverine defense will eventually get worn out if the offense can’t sustain long drives. USC pulls away in the 4th quarter and covers.
Jordan‘s 1st Pick:
Nebraska vs Illinois: U43.5
This is maybe the game of the week in the Big Ten and it will be on Friday night in Lincoln.
Illinois is a little better than we thought they’d be. Nebraska is a little better than we thought they’d be. That makes this game so tough to predict.
Who are you more optimistic about? If you said Nebraska, is it just because of their program history and brand? Or is it because of the building mythos of Dylan Raiola? What if this year is like 2022 for Bret Bielema and the Illini? If they win this game there is a path to a 10-win season granted they get a home win over Michigan.
I think most people expect these teams to each be closer to 7-8 wins rather than 9-10 wins and one of these fanbases will look back after the year is over and say, “This game! Week 4, that’s when it all fell apart!”
The line being 8.5 for the Huskers at home reminds you that Vegas knows what they’re doing. I don’t feel strong enough in either direction to pick for or against that kind of line. However, I do feel good about the under.
Illinois has point totals of 40 & 39 vs Kansas and Central Michigan. Nebraska has point totals of 37 & 38 against Northern Iowa and Colorado. Neither offense is fantastic. Raiola is still young. Altmyer is capable but not a burner. U43.5 is safe. I see a 23-16 or 27-13 type game unfolding so get it now before it drops lower.
Sean’s 2nd Pick:
Rutgers (+3.5) vs Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is a talented yet sloppy team. They give up a lot of big plays on defense and fall into a lot of 3rd & long situations on offense. Antwuan Powell is one of the best pass-rushers in the ACC, but no one else on the team has registered more than 1 sack so far, Kyron Drones is a headache for defenses to game-plan against because of his mobility but he can also be an inconsistent passer and a bit careless with the football. Similarly on the offensive side, Jaylin Lane is an elite wide receiver but the Hokies don’t appear to have any other legitimate receiving threats that Rutgers has to worry about.
Compare that to Rutgers – a disciplined team who has dominated along the line of scrimmage, doesn’t have any holes on defense, and takes care of the football. They have two All-Big Ten caliber tackles who can protect Kaliakmanis, plus he can takeoff and threaten defenses with his legs if needed. Despite needing to go to a hostile environment, this actually seems like a great matchup for Rutgers. Not to mention they are coming off of a bye week.
Virginia Tech is giving up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and are now going up against one of the nation’s best running backs in Kyle Monangai. Unless the Hokies are able to force turnovers out of Rutgers’ offense, I think they will have a hard time slowing them down.
Rutgers looks capable of dictating the pace of this game and keeping the ball out of Drones’ hands. IF they don’t lose the turnover margin, I expect Rutgers to not only cover but outright win on the road this weekend.
Jordan‘s 2nd Pick:
Michigan State vs BC: U45.5
Guess what? Michigan State’s best win (at Maryland) is now officially more impressive than BC’s win over Florida State.
The Eagles lost to Mizzou last week in a grinder 27-21. BC’s run game shuttered against Mizzou with just 46 yds. The Spartans have a great run defense. Aidan Chiles is still figuring out what it means to be a D1 starter at QB. I don’t think he perfects it on the road in Boston.
I like BC in this game. However, -6.5 might be rich for me (Adjusting to -5.5 at -132 odds isn’t the worst idea btw) but the Under is calling me like a siren song. Two things could blow this up. Thomas Castellanos has been markedly better so far this season for the Eagles and he could waste an under if he gets hot. The other thing that would ruin this under (and any under usually) is overtime. If these teams match up evenly and go to OT sitting at 20-20 the guaranteed points screw you.
I can visualize a Boston College win in Alumni Stadium (horrible name) in the 24-20 range or even 21-17 making me sweat, but this also could be a true ugly low scoring night in Boston.
Sean’s 3rd Pick:
Minnesota (+2.5) vs Iowa
They can kill the Big Ten West. But they can’t kill the idea of the Big Ten West. Saturday’s matchup between Iowa and Minnesota feels like a return to glory for the old division. The under seems like the logical pick in the battle of these two rivals, but I’m leaning towards Minnesota to cover for a few reasons.
Iowa’s defense and special teams have not been playing up to the standard they have set over the past few seasons as they have given up big plays and suffered from miscommunications that we are not used to seeing. Minnesota’s offense isn’t pretty, but Darius Taylor is more than capable of generating big plays on the ground and Daniel Jackson is the best wide receiver Iowa has faced yet.
Offensively for the Hawkeyes, it’s largely been the same story we’re used to seeing. Phil Lester has opened up the playbook and Kaleb Johnson is running like the best running back in the country, but Cade McNamara and the lack of pass-catchers is still holding this offense back. Now they face a Gopher defense who has been averaging three takeaways per game and allowing only 2.6 yards per carry. Things will not be easy for the Hawkeye defense on Saturday
I’m staying away from the Under because both of these offenses could be set up with short fields from turnovers. I’m leaning towards Minnesota because this looks like an evenly matched game on paper and they get it at home. I don’t think this game will be won by more than 3 points either way. Taking Minnesota is the safest play.
Jordan‘s 3rd Pick:
Washington (-10.5) vs Northwestern
It is so appealing to take my third under but the odds are just not in my favor of that happening and I need to get back on track.
I’ve got Washington -10.5 here. As someone who watched too much of that Duke Northwestern game, I am all the way out on the Wildcats this year. I believe in their defense to an extent, but I do not believe in their defense traveling to Seattle. The Wildcats haven’t had to leave Evanston yet and still have not been convincing in their showings so far. At some point there are going to be some disappointing Big Ten results when going several time zones over.
Washington is still getting their feet under them, but they are just so much better than this raw Northwestern team. Will Rogers could break out in this game. It could happen! The Huskies’ offense will be motivated after losing to Wazzu by their goal-line failure and I think Northwestern gets jetlagged.
Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Sean: 7-3 last week (27-15 overall)
Jordan: 5-5 last week (27-15 overall)
Disclaimer: Spreads & Over/Unders (left column) are updated up until kick-off, but our picks are locked in every Thursday. Follow @TheFloorSlap to get in on our picks ASAP!
| Game | Sean’s Pick | Jordan’s Pick |
|---|---|---|
| ILL at NEB (-7.5) O/U: 43.5 | Altmyer keeps it close, but this game is won in the trenches NEB -7.5 | Friday Night Lights are a bit dim U43.5 |
| MARSH at OSU (-39.5) O/U: 52.5 | Ohio State is just so good OSU -39.5 | Ryan Day HATES scoreboards O52.5 |
| CHAR at IND (-28.5) O/U: 49.5 | Charlotte lost by an avg of 21 pts to JMU & UNC IND -28.5 | 4-0 Hoosiers? O48.5 |
| KENT at PSU (-48.5) O/U: 55.5 | Kent might be the worst FBS team PSU -48.5 | Flashes gave up 126pts to Tenn & Pitt O54.5 |
| USC (-4.5) at MICH O/U: 44.5 | Most confident pick of the week USC -4.5 | Is this a trap? USC -4.5 |
| RUT at VT (-3.5) O/U: 46 | It’s time to take Rutgers seriously RUT +3.5 | Two weeks prep, too easy RUTG +3 |
| UCLA at LSU (-21.5) O/U: 56.5 | Hate this game so much O56 | If IU can do it in Westwood… LSU -23.5 |
| NW at WASH (-11.5) O/U: 42.5 | NW knows how to make any game ugly U42.5 | See Cover 3 Wash -10.5 |
| IOWA (-2.5) at MINN O/U: 35.5 | They can’t kill the Big Ten West MINN +2.5 | The Iowa Unders aren’t safe this year IOWA -2.5 |
| MSU at BC (-5.5) O/U: 45.5 | This one should be a lot of fun to watch MSU +6.5 | BC wins ugly U45.5 |
| PURD at ORST (-5.5) O/U: 49.5 | Ryan Walters needs to light a fire under his guys ORST -5.5 | Will the real Purdue please stand up? ORST -5.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge
| Last Week | Current Balance | |
| Sean | ($22.42) | $170.00 |
| Jordan | ($15.00) | $115.52 |
Sean’s Week 4 Picks:
Bet 1: Utah (+3) vs Oklahoma State (-105)
Betting $20 to win $19.05
Utah opened as the favorite in what could end up being the game of the year in the Big 12. Cam Rising has been practicing and we are told he will suit up on Saturday, but last year’s game of “will or won’t Cam Rising play this week” seems to have left an imprint on bettors. The line has swung five points in Oklahoma State’s favor since Sunday.
I’m sticking with Utah for two reasons. First, I believe Rising will play. That’s what we have been told and his current situation is so different than last year, I don’t think it’s fair to compare the two. Fans are over-reacting, so grab Utah at this value while you still can.
Second, Utah should dominate in the trenches. Oklahoma State’s offense has been high-flying so far this season but they have struggled to consistently run the ball even with RB Ollie Gordon. Utah, on the other hand, was still able to run the ball for over 200 yards at nearly 6 yards per carry without Rising last week. Micah Bernard has emerged as a great running back for the Utes and should help them keep the ball out of the Cowboys’ hands.
These are two veteran teams with old quarterbacks and experienced coaches who understand the importance of this matchup. I’m hesitant to pick Utah outright because this game is at Oklahoma State, so I’m taking the points in what feels like an obvious choice.
Bet 2: USC (-5.5) vs Michigan (-110)
Betting $40 to win $36.36
I explained above how I think this game will shake out. I’m not expecting Michigan’s change to Alex Orji to do much of anything for their offense and USC just has too many playmakers on the outside for Michigan to be able to shut down this offense. The Trojans are also coming off of an extra week of preparation.
Michigan should be able to keep this a little more respectable than the Texas game, but I still think USC leaves the Big House with a resounding victory.
Bet 3: Cal ML vs Florida State (+115)
Betting $10 to win $11.50
If you’re not rooting against Florida State, then watching their games is just kinda sad. Cal is no push-over this season, upsetting Auburn on the road a couple weeks ago thanks to a swarming defensive performance. This game might be ugly, but betting against Florida State has been unbelievably profitable so far this season. I’m riding it until it bites me in the butt.
Jordan’s Week 4 Picks:
Bet 1: Tennessee (-6.5) at Oklahoma (-122)
Betting $10 to win $8.20
The Vols already won me money when they annihilated NC State in Carolina. The best part of that was Tennessee didn’t need Nico Iamaleava to play that well. It was the defense who crushed the souls of the Wolfpack holding them to 143 yards and forcing 3 turnovers.
The Sooners have been unconvincing with a squeaker past Tulane and barely scaping by Houston at home. Jackson Arnold doesn’t seem to have the ceiling that Iamaleava has. OU’s defense is solid, but Tennessee might be a wagon.
What happens if Tennessee, Georgia & Bama are all great? Not to mention Ole Miss, Missouri, oh yeah and Texas is in the mix this year too. This isn’t the year to be anti-SEC. I’m going to ride the Vols to a comfy win and for us to look back as OU as not being in the same sphere as these other SEC teams.
Bet 2: Michigan U19.5 points vs USC (-115)
Betting $10 to win $8.7
This line went down from 20.5pts while in my FanDuel cart when writing the Tennessee bet above. So get it while it’s hot.
19.5 is really bordering on too low but also what faith do we have in this Michigan offense? The Davis Warren experiment failed. Now, it’s full-time Alex Orji… hooray??
Meanwhile USC’s defense held the LSU Tigers to 20 points and held Utah State scoreless. The Aggies then scored 21 against Utah the next week. LSU scored 80 points in their two games since the Trojan Defense. D’anton Lynn is doing a spectacular job so far and this could be a statement game for him and Lincoln Riley.
The Wolverines have scored 7 TDs in 3 games and 4 of those were vs. Arkansas State. USC (-5.5) is probably a safer bet with slightly better odds, but this one is personal for me as a hurt Ohio State alum.
Bet 3: Ohio State vs Marshall O52.5 (-110)
Betting $10 to win $9.09
Speaking of OSU, I think Ryan Day will keep this Buckeye team rolling thru game 3.
The Buckeyes had three warmup games in a row this year with a bye in the middle of it to start their first month. It’s one that has given them the opportunity to acclimate new players like Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins and Jeremiah Smith. That’s gone quite well and I see more confidence building this week.
The only thing that would worry me is the Bucks going up 42-0 at half again and Day pulling the starters, but honestly Devin Brown and Julian Sayin might get us to the over too. Anytime Touchdown bets should be a hit here too, but I want to focus on keeping my unit consistent so I will go with the over.