Follow Sean & Jordan throughout the 2024 college football season as they give picks for EVERY Big Ten game & compete in the FanDuel $100 Balance Challenge
by Sean Szymczak & Jordan Beckley
Let’s kickoff this week’s guide with a lesson!
Yeah, just what everyone wants. Still, it’s important looking back at last week and reminding yourself of the importance of units.
We both made this mistake of not sticking to a unit and put too much money on USC to cover and for Michigan’s offense to suck. It was a mistake influenced by Texas’ whooping of the Wolverines that we didn’t put enough money on the Longhorns and now we chased it with the Trojans.
Units are super important because they limit your exposure. A 72.7% hit rate like Jordan had on his picks last week is only great if the equity is spread equally on those picks! It wasn’t and he basically was only slightly in the green because he overleveraged the USC bet that he felt the most confident on.
Anyways, Michigan makes a statement that they’re still Playoff contenders, Colorado isn’t close to one, but still somehow is must watch TV, Tennessee cleaned Oklahoma’s clock, Utah didn’t need Cam Rising, and Illinois is puffing their chest saying “Remember our overtime win in Lincoln on Friday! Also don’t look up what Kansas has done the past few weeks since we beat them…”
It was a great week 4 so let’s get into the categories.
Largest Cover: Penn State covering 48.5 points in a 56-0 win over Kent State
Lowest Under: Northwestern 5, Washington 24
- Iowa again hits the over with a confident win at Minnesota
- Northwestern might be the new Hawkeyes. Excluding the Eastern Illinois win, the Wildcats have scored just two offensive touchdowns in regulation this season.
Bad Beat of the Week: RIP anybody with Baylor Moneyline
- Baylor had the victory in their hands against Colorado
- Then the Bears almost let it slip thru their rain soaked hands when Will Sheppard dropped the potential game-tying 40-yard touchdown with just seconds left in the game
- But it get’s worse because then on the final play of the regulation, Shedeur Sanders completes the 40-yard Hail Mary to LaJohntay Wester as he snuck between two Baylor DBs well after the clock struck 0:00.
- The Buffs scored on their possession in OT and looked helpless again to stop Baylor until Travis Hunter forced a fumble as Dominic Richardson stretched for the goal line.
- Baylor quite literally fumbled the game out of the endzone.
But we are onto next week! We get 8 high quality Big Ten conference games this week including a fun Washington Rutgers clash on Friday night plus a Top 5 showdown in Tuscaloosa, CFP elimination games potentially in Louisville vs Notre Dame and K-State vs Oklahoma State, whatever the hell happens in Colorado’s game this week and the rest of Week 5 in CFB!
Cover 3
Sean & Jordanās 3 Big Ten Locks of the Week
Sean: 1-2 last week (8-4 overall)
Jordan: 2-1 last week (7-5 overall)
Seanās 1st Pick
Illinois vs Penn State: O47.5
Illinois was able to shut down Nebraska’s rush attack but the Nittany Lions pose a far greater threat. Nick Singleton is running the ball better than ever, averaging 9 yards per touch. Tyler Warren and Omari Evans have opened up this offense and allowed Drew Allar to devastate defenses down the field, particularly off play-action. Needless to say, Penn State’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds so far under Andy Kotelnicki.
That isn’t to say Drew Allar & the offense will be immune to mistakes against the ball-hawking Illini defense. Penn State has turned the ball over in each of their first three games against far lesser competition. Allar looks far more confident than last year and has proven to be a threat with his legs as well. However, his accuracy has still seemed inconsistent. He’s gotten away with some poor decisions and under-throws that may cost him against an Illinois team who has already forced 10 turnovers on the year.
Ultimately, I think Penn State will find success against Illinois and will not be worn down like Nebraska was. It’s the other side of the football that makes me think this line is far too disrespectful to the Illini.
Penn State was prone to giving up big plays against Bowling Green and hasn’t been tested since their veteran starter at safety, Kevin Winston, went down with a ‘long-term’ injury. Their front hasn’t been able to get after the quarterback much, registering only four sacks against West Virginia and a couple MAC teams.
Luke Altmyer is flourishing in his second season at Illinois. He’s completing over 70% of his passes with 10 TDs and no INTs. Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin are the nation’s most underrated wide receiver duo and will test a Penn States secondary that has not looked as sharp as last year. It also helps that Illinois can run the ball with a stable of running backs, most notably budding star Kaden Feagin.
I am very tempted to pull the trigger on Illinois +17.5 because Illinois is a balanced attack that can possess the ball as well as they can generate big plays. Their defense bends but also has consistently come up with back-breaking turnovers and plays behind the line of scrimmage. Illinois has a great chance to keep this close and maybe even pull off the upset. Despite that, I think the over is the safest bet in this game.
Both defenses still have their question marks, most notably Penn State’s secondary and Illinois’ interior line. Both offenses are balanced and averaging over 30 ppg. There should be plenty of points in this surprising top-25 battle.
Jordanās 1st Pick
Ohio State (-23.5) at Michigan State
Welcome to the land of disrespect!
Weāve made it thru the buy games against directional schools where the 40+ point spreads are true guesses and weāve made it to harder data and difficult lines against conference opponents. But when youāre dealing with an obvious CFP team like Ohio State and an obvious non-CFP team in Michigan State, you get to play a game of is this spread disrespectful?
Here are the last 5 matchups between OSU and MSU in East Lansing:
- OSU wins 49-20
- OSU wins 52-12
- OSU wins 26-6
- OSU wins 17-16
- OSU wins 49-37
What do you notice? Well over would hit only 3 out of 5 times and OSU was 20+ points better on the road 3 of the 5 times too. Spartan fans know that this team isnāt as good as some of those teams that the Buckeyes blew up and they also know this team wonāt be as bad as some of them either.
Still, Aidan Chiles is a first year starter who is about to play the biggest game of his life for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. This Ohio State defense is a MONSTER. Theyāre preventing me from going with the over here. I respect MSUās fairly good defense, but Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson are unfair. Ohio State 38- MSU 10.
Seanās 2nd Pick
Rutgers (-1.5) vs Washington
Despite my concerns in the preseason about Washington’s offensive line, this offense has looked impressive behind QB Will Rogers, RB Jonah Coleman, and WR Giles Jackson. However, their challenge against a stout, veteran-led Rutgers defense is not one they have seen yet.
Northwestern was able to get pressure on Rogers and contain the run game last week and Rutgers should be able to do the same. The difference is the Scarlet Knights also have difference-makers in the secondary. Led by Robert Longerbeam, Rutgers is allowing only 130 yards per game through the air at 51% completion.
Greg Schiano finally has competency at the quarterback position to allow for play-action and really open this offense up. Athan Kaliakmanis, Dymere Miller, and Kyle Monangai should be able to move the ball on the Huskies.
The biggest difference in this game will be discipline. Washington fell to their only real competition so far – Washington State at home – because of self-inflicted mistakes and poor coaching decisions. Rutgers is top-10 in the country with the fewest penalties so far this season and takes care of the football.
The black-out environment should epic at SHI Stadium as Rutgers attempts to go 4-0 and break into the top 25. They simply have the experience, discipline, and balance that Washington does not yet have under Jed Fisch. The Scarlet Knights win this game.
Jordanās 2nd Pick
Indiana (-6.5) vs Maryland
Did yāall see this stat?
Indiana joins the party of Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama and Ohio State (essentially 4 of the 6 best teams in the country) as a team with a Top 10 scoring offense and defense? Crazy. Sean believes this is due to Indianaās pretty shallow scheduling. That might be true, but Iām going with this revealing a little something deeper about Coach Cignettiās team.
I will tell you right now Indiana, Ole Miss and probably Bama wonāt end the season in this same echelon in offense + defense, but the Hoosiers bodied UCLA in California when LSU couldnāt do the same in Baton Rouge.
Iām fond of Maryland football. I would say I like them this year like as much as one of my favorite coworkers. Iāll chat em up at work and say āyeah heās a good guyā if someone asks but I wouldnāt grab drinks with him on a Saturday. Does that make sense? Probably not.
Indiana covers at home. Billy Edwards Jr struggles.
Seanās 3rd Pick
Michigan (-9.5) vs Minnesota
Listen, I’m not throwing a parade for the Wolverines and declaring them a national title contender after they squeaked out a win against USC. But after what we’ve seen from Minnesota so far, this line seems to be really disrespectful to Michigan.
Max Brosmer has been nothing short of a disaster at quarterback so far. WR Daniel Jackson is one of the Big Ten’s best, but the Gophers have been incapable of generating anything downfield. Their vanilla, predictable play-calling hasn’t helped either. This has made it entirely too easy to contain what was supposed to be a potent Minnesota rush attack led by Darius Taylor.
Brosmer has already thrown three interceptions and been sacked eight times. Will Johnson and Mason Graham should feast on this offense and help set their offense up in plus-territory.
Minnesota let Omarion Hampton and Kaleb Johnson run wild on them, so I expect Michigan to find similar success. Even without any semblance of a passing attack, Michigan is just better than Minnesota in virtually every area. It’s likely to go into the second half, but the Wolverines should win this game by at least two possessions at home.
Jordan’s 3rd Pick
Wisconsin at USC: U50.5
Here are a few questions Iām asking myself about this game:
Do I think USC is Alabama level better than Wisconsin? No.
Do I think Wisconsin will be embarrassed on the road after a bye week? No.
Did Michiganās one dimensional ability to run against USC concern me for the Trojans stopping the Badgers this week? Yes.
Do I think that means Wisconsin will score a lot? No.
Do I think USC will come out guns blazing against Wisconsin after a loss? No. (USC has actually lost the next game after a loss three times already in Rileyās two years.
Bama was 16.5 point favorites on the Badgers and won by 32. Thatās inflating this number a bit, but I still donāt think USC is there yet for that kind of two touchdown and then some line. But Iām not confident enough to pick Wisconsin to cover when I know they will still lose. So give me an under! USCās defense is pretty good and so is Wisconsinās. U50.5 would have hit in all but the Michigan game so far for USC and all but the Bama game for Wisco.
Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Sean: 6-5 last week (33-20 overall)
Jordan: 8-3 last week (35-18 overall)
Disclaimer: Spreads & Over/Unders (left column) are updated up until kick-off, but our picks are locked in every Thursday. Follow @TheFloorSlap to get in on our picks ASAP!
| Game | Sean’s Pick | Jordan’s Pick |
|---|---|---|
| WASH at RUTG (-2.5) O/U: 44.5 | Rutgers’ biggest home game since 2007 RUTG -1.5 | I’m running out of ways to pick Schiano RUTG -1.5 |
| OSU (-23.5) at MSU O/U: 48.5 | Aidan Chiles can’t keep up OSU -23.5 | The commute home will be easy OSU -23.5 |
| MINN at MICH (-10.5) O/U: 34.5 | Officially OUT on Minnesota IN on Kalel Mullings. MICH -9.5 | Too much fun to skip it U36.5 |
| MD at IND (-6.5) O/U: 51.5 | Both offenses can score in bunches O51.5 | Cignetti on that Locksley Pack IU -6.5 |
| NEB (-10.5) at PURD O/U: 48.5 | Purdue sucks. NEB -10.5 | Only 10.5?? NEB -10.5 |
| WISC at USC (-14.5) O/U: 50.5 | Fresh off bye, Badgers may be able to cause more problems up front for the Trojans WISC +15.5 | Wisconsin introduces Big Ten Scoring to USC U50.5 |
| ILL at PSU (-17.5) O/U: 47.5 | The Big Ten finally has good quarterback play! O47.5 | Loving points here Illinois overs feel good O47.5 |
| OREG (-25.5) at UCLA O/U: 55.5 | I wish I could pass on this one OREG -24.5 | One of many coming for UCLA OREG -24.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge
| Last Week | Current Balance | |
| Sean | ($30.95) | $139.05 |
| Jordan | 7.29 | $122.81 |
Seanās Week 4 Picks:
Bet 1: Louisville (+7) at Notre Dame (-110)
The Cardinal offense will be the biggest challenge to date for Notre Dame. QB Tyler Shough has been been crisp through three games. He’s averaging over 11 ypa, completing 68% of his passes, has tossed 8 TDs, hasn’t turned the ball over, and has been sacked only once. WR Ja’Corey Brooks is averaging 100 yards per game and Chris Bell is averaging nearly 28 yards per catch. At running back, Louisville has five different guys who have carried it at least 13 times – most notably Isaac Brown and Duke Watson, who are each averaging over 10 yards per carry. This is truly a balanced unit that does beat themselves.
Defensively for Louisville, a lot returns from a team that stifled Notre Dame’s offense in a 33-20 win last season. Everyone was quick to forgive Notre Dame’s sluggish offense after they dropped 66 at Purdue, but they weren’t nearly as sharp against Miami OH last week. They started off the game very slow and managed only 158 yards passing on the day with a couple turnovers.
Riley Leonard, who is nursing a left shoulder injury, is still a question mark at quarterback. This is an Irish offense that is built off the run, but Louisville is allowing only 87 yards rushing on 2.5 yards per carry so far this season. A lot will be put on Leonard’s shoulders and that is a scary proposition for Notre Dame.
This should be a tight, low-scoring affair. Louisville has a great chance at pulling off the upset and has great value at +6.5. I’m just sticking with the points here because Notre Dame’s defense is still one of the best in college football.
Betting $20 to win $18.18
Bet 2: Georgia at Alabama: U50.5 (-110)
The game of the weekend features two offenses who have struggled to find their footing in the early part of the season. Georgia managed only 6 points in the 1st half against Clemson – a defense who has given up 55 points combined against App State and NC State. Against Kentucky, Georgia mustered 262 total yards and less than 3.5 yards per carry. Carson Beck hasn’t been bad, but I stand by my take that he is one of the most overrated players in the country.
At the surface, Alabama’s offense is in much better shape after scoring at least 42 points in each of their first three games. But USF had them contained until a 28-point flurry in the 4th quarter. Even against Wisconsin, the Tide seemed overly-reliant on big plays to generate offense. Those big plays are certainly exciting and will be hard to contain, but this Georgia defense is a different giant.
I don’t expect to see Ryan Williams streaking down the field wide open in this matchup. Nor do I expect Jam Miller or Trevor Etienne to have gaping holes to attack the second level. This will be a chess match between the offenses and the defenses. Neither offense has shown the ability to consistently go on 10+ play drives yet. This has the looks of a low-scoring affair – a 23-20 type game.
Betting $10 to win $9.09
Bet 3: Oklahoma at Auburn: U45.5 (-110)
Oklahoma’s defense is finally playing like a Venables unit. They contained Tennessee’s high-flying attack last week and won the games for the Sooners against upset-minded Houston and Tulane. Despite already being tested by quality offenses early in the season, Oklahoma is forcing three turnovers per game and allowing just 2.4 yards per carry. LB Danny Stutsman and CB Kani Walker are potential All-Americans and have the Sooner playing well at every single level.
Now they face Payton Thorne who has already thrown 5 INTs on the season and is completing just 57% of his passes. Outside of RB Jarquez Hunter, this offense is starved of play-makers. They have averaged 22.5 points against their only two power-conference opponents – neither of which have a defense that holds a candle to Oklahoma’s.
Oklahoma’s offense may have trouble putting up points too. Jackson Arnold has been benched in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. He’s a tremendous athlete but a very raw passer – playing at Auburn against a defense that is allowing quarterbacks to complete only 52% of their passes might be a challenging first start for the youngster.
This is a battle of two good defenses against two offenses who have sputtered to start the season. Take the under with confidence.
Betting $15 to win $13.64
Bet 4: Washington State at Boise State: O63.5 (-110)
We don’t completely hate points this weekend! From purely an entertainment standpoint, this game is a must-watch.
Washington State runs one of the fastest-paced offenses in the country. John Mateer is one of the best dual threats in the country but has also been great at stretching defenses with his arm. This is an offense which can generate explosive plays just as well as they can wear a defense down. They will be a challenge for a Boise State defense that has taken a step back from last year’s disappointing performance.
These offenses are averaging a combined 95 ppg and allowing a combined 60 ppg. Just last week, the Cougars gave up 52 points and nearly 500 total yards to San Jose State. The Spartans averaged nearly 6 yards per carry on the day, so Heisman-candidate Ashton Jeanty should be able to have his way with this defense.
This point total could go over 100 – really. Take the over.
Betting $15 to win $13.64
Bet 5: Parlay (+352) – Rutgers (-1.5) at Washington (-110), Penn State at Illinois: O47.5 (-110), Michigan ML vs Minnesota (-375)
My two favorite Big Ten picks of the week are Rutgers to cover and the over in Penn State vs Illinois. Read my breakdown above.
I’m going to parlay those together because I am so confident in each of them. I threw in Michigan ML because it added another +100 to the parlay’s odds and I have a hard time envisioning any scenario where the Gophers can produce enough offense to pull off the upset.
Betting $10 to win $35.20
Jordanās Week 4 Picks:
Bet 1: VT at Miami (-19.5)
Betting $10 to win $9.09
The Hokies are a fine football club could even make a bowl game, but I think that Miami makes another statement here. I love that this is under 3 touchdowns and I will pounce on it. IF I hadnāt just talked about keeping a unit I would have bet more on this game.
Bet 2: Louisville (Moneyline +188) at Notre Dame
Betting $5 to win $9.40
Speaking of units I am doing a half unit because this is an underdog moneyline.
Calling my shot here a little. Sean likes the Cards to cover and so do I, but why do the half measure? Notre Dame has been tested with mixed results. If Louisville isnāt for real (they havenāt really been tested) the Irish will bowl over them in South Bend. If Louisville and Brohm are legit then letās go for the money!
These two schools have split their four matchups all-time (all in the last 11 years) with two of them being less than a touchdown win and two being two touchdown+ wins. Each team has won one and lost one at home. Hereās to the all important game 5! Give me the Cards.
Bet 3: Colorado at UCF O64.5
Betting $10 to win $8.77
Every once in a while you just have to pick one of these ridiculous overs for some fun. Last year it was USC and LSU with miserable defenses and great offenses that were fun to pick huge spreads against.
Both the Golden Knights and Colorado canāt stop anyone. The lethargy for Colorado after an emotional overtime game at night coupled with cross country travel for a kick that will feel like 1:30pm for them makes me optimistic for the UCF-14.5 but I think that is like 2 points away from being cozy with it. I will be patiently waiting for my moment to fade Colorado as it is clear this team isnāt actually good, but for now letās have fun and root for some points.