Follow Sean & Jordan throughout the 2024 college football season as they give picks for EVERY Big Ten game & compete in the FanDuel $100 Balance Challenge
by Sean Szymczak & Jordan Beckley
So, I (this is Jordan speaking) did the Michigan Double-Header this past weekend.
Yes, I went first to the Big House for the Golden Gophers vs. Wolverines game at noon, then drove over to East Lansing to watch my alma mater Ohio State take on the Spartans at 7:30.
Instead of writing a normal recap/intro of Week 5 with the categories, let me real quick rip off some observations from both Minnesota vs. Michigan and Ohio State vs Michigan State:
- Michigan doesn’t split up the sections by deck so I was row 75+ and the seats were actually really good?
- The seats were nicer than I imagined and the gameday operations were up to par for the stature of the program
- On the actual game, Kalel Mullings is the real deal
- The rest of Michigan’s offense… I don’t know man
- The Wolverine defense and offensive line really will make them the favorite to win 10 or so games even without the invention of the forward pass
- Disclaimer: it was miserably stormy and the whole stadium was drenched in Ann Arbor. So, my friend and I left at 21-0 as a business decision. So, we missed some good moments.
- I would have buried Max Brosmer a lot more here if it were based off just the first half.
- Still, let’s not kid ourselves Brosmer is a bottom third QB in the conference and it could cost Minnesota a bowl appearance
- For OSU vs. MSU I won’t shock you here with any takes
- Jeremiah Smith! That one-handed touchdown happened directly in front of us in the end zone and it might’ve been the coolest play I have seen live
- If it weren’t for Ryan Williams we would be talking even more about Smith’s game because he had several eye-popping catches too.
- Will Howard wasn’t perfect, but I find myself trusting him more than I did Kyle McCord
- The Buckeyes’ defense looked vulnerable and then it broke the Spartan’s spirit. Bend don’t Break makes sense here.
- MSU fans by the way for the most part were super friendly to us loud OSU fans, but the ones who weren’t all brought up that they root for Michigan too. I mean this disrespectfully… that is little brother energy.
- I will say the Spartan student section was very organized and ready to rip with the chants until the game got out of hand
- Speaking of MSU fans, be patient with Aidan Chiles. His numbers didn’t pop, but he made some seriously good throws against one of the best defenses he could see maybe for his entire career.
- Chiles has plenty of games to go in his career and if he stays in East Lansing odds are they will eventually have a great team around him
- I was disappointed with Michigan State’s run game, but also OSU’s RBs didn’t look amazing either
- Final note: I don’t think Devin Brown should be QB2 for OSU.
Super fun experience to visit both of those stadiums for the first time and I wish it was better weather and better games so those great environments could reach their peak.
But enough about me, let’s talk about Week 6.
Cover 3
Sean & Jordan‘s 3 Big Ten Locks of the Week
Sean: 1-2 last week (9-6 overall)
Jordan: 2-1 last week (9-6 overall)
Sean’s 1st Pick:
Rutgers (+7) vs Nebraska
Rutgers isn’t always going to be a fun watch, but they have a legitimate chance to win 10 games this season for three reasons: they are great on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball, their secondary is among the nation’s best, and their offense is finally balanced.
Nebraska’s hype train got up to dangerous speeds in the first few weeks of the seasons because of their dominance along the line of scrimmage and the poise of Dylan Raiola. But Raiola missed a wide open receiver in the end zone that might have sealed the game against Illinois before taking three sacks in overtime. Illinois also wore both Husker lines down as the game worn down before being overwhelmed by Penn State this past weekend. Against Purdue, Nebraska shut down a spiraling offense but failed to find the endzone until the second half. My point being, the Cornhuskers aren’t quite the dominant force many assumed them to be.
Rutgers is a senior-laden team that does not beat themselves. It’s still hard to get a read on how good Nebraska really is. If it took them four quarters to shut the door on hapless Purdue, I don’t see them running away from a Scarlet Knight team that can run the ball and set up play-action as well as they can. Rutgers definitely covers and might just move to 5-0.
Jordan’s 1st Pick:
Iowa (+19.5) vs Ohio State
Last week, I used history to correctly predict that OSU would cover against MSU even with the very high spread. This week I’m using history to predict that Ohio State will not cover the very large spread.
Of the past 5 meetings (which stretches back to 2010 because the Hawks and Bucks rarely play), Iowa has covered this spread 4 of the 5 games.The only time they didn’t was in 2022 when the offense was just absolutely putrid and CJ Stroud had 4 Touchdowns.
Iowa is by far the best team that Ohio State has faced so far this season. The Hawkeyes rush defense is right there with Tennessee, Ole Miss and OSU for best in the country. The literal bottom of the country Iowa offense of the past few seasons is not a thing this year as the Hawkeye’s offense is in the upper half now (baby steps). In a world where running backs on 9-3 teams could win the Heisman, Kaleb Johnson would be in the discussion for Heisman he has been that good. Iowa coming off a bye had two weeks to prepare for this game and scheme up a few break-in-case-of-first-down plays. Cade McNamara has been a fine college QB for them so far.
Ohio State meanwhile stalled against a Michigan State team that is pretty good, but not nearly what Iowa’s defense is. Will Howard has passed the tests so far, but this will be his toughest one yet and with Oregon next week don’t be shocked if this game is closer than you’d expect.
If you think I am being dumb and Ohio State rolls over Iowa, go for it. If you do, you might as well take the over 45.5 too (also hit 4 of last 5 meetings) because Ohio State isn’t winning this game 21-0. If they open it up, they will open it up. I’m sticking with Iowa making the Buckeyes sweat a less than two touchdown win.
Sean’s 2nd Pick:
Michigan State (+24.5) vs Oregon
There’s something off with this Oregon team. They are clearly one of the most talented teams in all of college football, but they have yet to play like it for a full 60 minutes. Their offensive line seems to have patched most of the holes that plagued this offense for the first two weeks, but this offense seems a little overly-reliant on big plays from Jordan James and Tez Johnson. Both are extreme talents and capable of breaking off a big one at any given time, but this offense just hasn’t met their true potential yet.
Michigan State will not be an easy out on Friday night. Sure they are coming off a 38-7 loss to Ohio State at home, but that game was not quite as lopsided as the score would indicate. Aidan Chiles is good for at least a couple bone-headed plays every game, but his connections with Nick Marsh and Jaron Glover can also be incredibly dangerous. The Spartan defense specializes in getting after the quarterback and making plays behind the line of scrimmage. I expect them to give the Duck offensive lines some issues to start the game.
There is some fight in this Michigan State team – if a couple plays had gone their away against Ohio State they would have found themselves in a very different ballgame in the 4th quarter. Oregon’s defense is great but does not force turnovers (Michigan State’s biggest weakness on offense). They were also unable to effectively sit on their 28-3 lead against UCLA, managing just a 34-13 victory. I think Michigan State can at least keep this one respectable.
Jordan’s 2nd Pick:
Indiana (-13.5) vs Northwestern
Two of the things I’ve loved this year are fading Northwestern and rolling with Coach Cigs.
Indiana keeps making me money this year and I don’t think it stops this week. Northwestern has one of the lowest scoring offenses in the country this year after playing Washington, Duke, Eastern Illinois, and Miami of Ohio. The Hoosiers have the 3rd best scoring offense and the 13th best scoring defense (don’t bring up their schedule or how the Western Illinois game inflated the numbers).
I think IU gets to 6-0 easily this week. Northwestern has no home field advantage and they aren’t even on their home field. I also don’t see Northwestern scoring much. I think on my actual FanDuel account I will parlay IU covering -13.5 and U41.5 points as I really believe this will be a 27-3 type spanking. But given the rules of this article the official pick is a Hoosier cover.
Sean’s 3rd Pick:
Penn State vs UCLA: U46.5
This one just comes down to numbers. UCLA’s offense has been a tremendous disappointment with QB Ethan Garbers. The Bruins have yet to top 350 total yards or 17 points yet this season and now they face a Nittany Lion defense that is finally starting to play up to expectations.
Abdul Carter finally had his arrival for the 2024 season against Illinois, racking up two sacks and four TFLs. Their questionable secondary answered the call against a potent Illini pass attack. Those explosive plays they gave up against Bowling Green seem like a distant memory after their last two outings. This is truly an elite defense.
UCLA’s defense has been their lone bright spot this season. Penn State has taken a massive step forward on offense under Andy Kotelnicki, but they failed to close out drives against Illinois. I don’t see UCLA managing more than 17 against Penn State, and I also don’t see the Nittany Lions running up and down the field against this defense. Points will be at a premium.
Jordan’s 3rd Pick:
Michigan (+2.5) vs Washington
This one might be dumb.
I know this line started higher and the public is betting it down. Usually a road underdog being bet down by the public is not a good one to follow. I know Alex Orji can’t throw a pass. I know Washington has a solid run defense giving up just 3.74 yards per carry after already playing Kyle Monangai and Rutgers and John Mateer and Washington State. I know that traveling across the country to a real homefield advantage in Seattle isn’t something to ignore. If three plays go differently the Huskies could be 5-0 and this line is above a touchdown in favor of them. I know that Washington fans would love this as a consolation for losing the National Championship to them last year.
Still, my gut reaction to seeing Michigan being an underdog is “Take my money”. After seeing Michigan get properly embarrassed by Texas, I underestimated them against USC. The Wolverines pushed around the Trojans and did it to Minnesota for most of the game too. I think Michigan can win 9 games this year with the way they win the line of scrimmage even if they punt 90% of the time after 3rd and long.
Give me Michigan’s culture to cover +2.5 at Washington.
Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Sean: 4-4 last week (37-24 overall)
Jordan: 4-4 last week (39-22 overall)
Disclaimer: Spreads & Over/Unders (left column) are updated up until kick-off, but our picks are locked in every Thursday. Follow @TheFloorSlap to get in on our picks ASAP!
| Game | Sean’s Pick | Jordan’s Pick |
| MSU at OREG (-24.5) O/U: 52.5 | Oregon doesn’t like blow-outs MSU +24.5 | I’m not allowed to bet Oregon spreads O52.5 |
| UCLA at PSU (-27.5) O/U: 46.5 | Penn State’s defense is finally playing like they should be U46.5 | Over feels safer than a cover O46.5 |
| PURD at WISC (-13.5) O/U: 44.5 | Gross! WIC -13.5 | Did Graham Harrell matter that much? WISC-13.5 |
| IND (-13.5) at NW O/U: 41.5 | This screams letdown. There’s no way… right? IND -13.5 | Earliest IU has been Bowl eligible? IND -13.5 |
| IOWA at OSU (-18.5) O/U: 45.5 | I kinda think Ohio State is just really really good OSU -19.5 | Calm before Storm for Buckeyes Iowa +19.5 |
| RUTG at NEBR (-7) O/U: 40.5 | KEEP CHOPPING RUTG +7 | RUTG +7 is tempting but the Under is better U40.5 |
| MICH at WASH (-2.5) O/U: 41.5 | 75% of bets are on UM but the line isn’t moving. Hmm… WASH -2.5 | Bettor Beware MICH+2.5 |
| USC (-8.5) at MINN O/U: 49.5 | Minnesota just can’t keep up USC -8.5 | I think this’ll be a stinker U50.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge
| Last Week | Current Balance | |
| Sean | ($3.18) | $135.87 |
| Jordan | ($6.23) | $116.58 |
Sean’s Week 6 Picks:
Pick 1: South Carolina (+10) vs Ole Miss (-115)
South Carolina might be the most underrated team in the country. They smacked Kentucky on the road (who has since beaten Ole Miss and almost beaten Georgia) and should have beaten LSU if it weren’t for multiple questionable calls from the refs.
Starting QB LaNorris Sellers is questionable for the game, but this is a run-oriented offense either way. Ole Miss has struggled with physical teams and that is exactly what the Gamecocks are. Williams-Brice Stadium can get rowdy, and it certainly will be this Saturday. South Carolina keeps this close.
Betting $15 to win $13.04
Pick 2: Syracuse vs UNLV: O58.5 (-105)
UNLV’s high-scoring offense didn’t miss a beat when their starter opted out for the rest of their season because this is an attack built around the run game. The Rebels have five players already rush for over 100 yards with at least 5.5 yards per carry. They now face a Syracuse defense which has yielded almost 150 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry to far inferior competition.
On the flip side, Kyle McCord is the ACC’s leading passer. UNLV already has 9 INTs on the year which could set up a short field for the offense, but this defense struggled to contain the run against Kansas (the only real competition they’ve had so far this year).
Both offenses should find success Saturday night and in a relatively evenly-matched game that means a lot to both teams, there will be no reason for either team to take their foot off the gas.
Betting $10 to win $9.52
Jordan’s Week 6 Picks:
Pick 1: Missouri ML (+112) at Texas A&M
I have nothing substantial or analytical to add besides that I enjoy betting against the Aggies in big games. Two things can be true: Mizzou can be overrated and they can still be better than Texas A&M.
Betting $10 to win $11.20
Pick 2: Parlay – IND (-13.5) & U41.5 vs Northwestern
Covered this in Cover Three, but I am doubling down on my Northwestern hate for this week.
Betting $5 to win $13.94
Pick 3: Pitt -2.5 at UNC
The Tar Heels are on a generational fade them run. They gave up 70 points to James Madison in Chapel Hill two weeks ago and then lost to a terrible Duke team. Side note this Duke team has to be one of the worst teams to start 5-0, but way to go Manny Diaz. But yeah, UNC sucks and isn’t a competitive football team. Pitt is a real team. I’m sticking to my regular unit, but I wouldn’t shame you if you increased yours.