Follow Sean & Jordan throughout the 2024 college football season as they give picks for EVERY Big Ten game & compete in the FanDuel $100 Balance Challenge
by Sean Szymczak & Jordan Beckley
We have an abbreviated Betting guide due to some personal travel that may or may not involve the no.2 vs no.3 matchup between Ohio State and Oregon this weekend…
So, no categories and no preamble really. We have 7 Big Ten games and 6 “locks” to split amongst them. This is where the coverage in the Cover 3 might get thin. Let’s just hope our pass rush get to the QB in time to not get exposed.
Cover 3
Sean & Jordan‘s 3 Big Ten Locks of the Week
Sean: 1-2 last week (10-8 overall)
Jordan: 2-1 last week (11-7 overall)
Sean’s 1st Pick:
Ohio State (-3.5) vs Oregon
Lines are being drawn across the entire country this weekend. I think the most significant line drawn will be the one separating Ohio State and the rest of the Big Ten. Yes, Oregon’s far more talented than anyone else Ohio State has played to date. Yes, Autzen Stadium will bring a dynamic that this Buckeye team hasn’t had to deal with yet. And yes, the Ducks are the more battle-tested team. But the nation isn’t really addressing just how dominant Ohio State has been.
Jim Knowles’ defense has been utterly dominant. They are top 5 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, passing defense, rush defense, yards per rush allowed, and yards per play allowed. Chip Kelly has not even scratched the surface of what he can do with this offense, keeping his gameplans relatively vanilla through five games. Even so, the Buckeyes are 4th in scoring offense and 9th in total offense. Most of Ohio State’s starters haven’t even needed to play in a 4th quarter yet, meaning they will all be fresh for this primetime showdown.
To put it simply, Ohio State has consistently dominated both sides of the line scrimmage throughout every game in ways Oregon has been unable to. The Ducks haven’t been able to string together four great quarters yet, and I think it’s a tall ask to think they can do it against Ryan Day’s veteran squad.
Oregon hasn’t been particularly great against the run so far this season and will struggle to contain Henderson & Judkins, just as they did Ashton Jeanty earlier this season. Once this Buckeye run game gets going, the offense becomes almost unguardable. Ohio State’s defense is great at limiting big plays and making the opposing offense go on long, sustained drives. Dillon Gabriel & company will surely get theirs, but they won’t be able to keep up against this dominant Buckeye defense.
Jordan’s 1st Pick:
Penn State -4.5 at USC
I haven’t had the chance to talk about Penn State yet so let’s fill some air time about the no.4 team in the country.
Here is what the Nittany Lions have done since their close win over Bowling Green:
- Beat Kent State 56-0
- Beat 4-0 Illinois 21-7
- Beat UCLA 27-11
In total PSU has surrendered 30 points in four contests outside of the 27 given up to the Green Falcons. Even with the BGSU game, Penn State is the 8th ranked scoring defense in the country. On offense, Drew Allar is playing mistake free football completing 71% of his passes with 9 Touchdowns and 1 Interception while only attempting 20 throws a game. Allar’s been afforded to do so with the terrific twosome in the backfield. Kaytron Allen & Nick Singleton have accounted for 870 total yards and 8 total touchdowns. Which is pretty comparable to Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins & Treveyon Henderson who have put up 853 yards and 9 total touchdowns.
USC is now 3-2 and this game is not nearly as exciting as it was a few weeks ago.
The argument against Penn State this week is that this is their first game outside of Happy Valley in 42 days and it’s 3 time zones away. The Trojans have had one of the toughest schedules out there so far with 4 of their 5 games being against Bowl appearance type Power-5 teams. Penn State has had a pretty relaxed one.
The under is under serious consideration. The defense has improved this year for Lincoln Riley, but not invincible. I think Penn State covers here. I would like it a lot better at -2.5, but I don’t believe in Minnesota this year, ditto on Wisconsin and Michigan just lost worse to Washington than USC. What if Penn State is a touchdown or two better than USC even on the road? Oh and it can’t be understated that if James Franklin & PSU win this game you can essentially lock them into a playoff spot with their remaining schedule even with a loss to Ohio State.
Sean’s 2nd Pick:
Northwestern vs Maryland: O45.5
The Northwestern offense finally seemed to find their footing against Indiana last week with Bryce Kirtz and AJ Henning combining for 16 catches, 195 yards, and 2 TDs. Joseph Himon has begun to generate chunk plays in the run game which has eased the pressure off Jack Lausch’s shoulders.
Maryland’s secondary has been chewed up by Indiana and Michigan State. A Terp defense that was vaunted two short years ago is now the reason for both of their losses. The Wildcats should be able to find at least some success on Friday night.
On the flip side, Northwestern’s defense has taken a significant step back from the unit that carried the team to seven wins last year. They’ve been pretty strong up front but are consistently exposed in space. Tai Felton should have a field day against this secondary.
With Northwestern likely to play the majority of the game from behind, there shouldn’t be a shortage of passing in this game. This total could easily surpass 50.
Jordan’s 2nd Pick:
Washington at Iowa (-2.5) O40.5
By Week 7 the books have enough data to make this picking against the spread thing damn hard.
Iowa & Washington share a similar story. They’re a pair of 2 loss teams with tough schedules that feel like (at least) one of their losses should have been a win. Iowa has lost to better teams, but Washington fresh off the win at home to Michigan has the better win.
There are several reasons why I like Iowa this week. For one, I think Iowa is the better team. Iowa held Ohio State to 7 points in a half in the Shoe. Iowa was up two scores with 20 minutes left against the now 11th ranked Cyclones in the Cy-Hawk rivalry before blowing it. Iowa’s two touchdown road win over Minnesota might not be looked that differently than the Huskies home win over Michigan. I also the think that this week screams let down week. After a dramatic home victory in primetime having to play against the Hawkeyes at what feels like 9am local time for the Washington players isn’t a great recipe for a success.
But I’m a coward and am scared that Washington (one of the teams I have the worst feel for this season) will prove me wrong. What I do feel comfortable is taking the over 40.5. It isn’t taboo anymore to take the over in an Iowa game. The Hawkeyes have hit 40 points in 4 of their 5 showings. Part of that is the defense isn’t what it was in past seasons. Iowa has given up 2+ Touchdowns to every opponent except for Illinois State. Washington’s offense hasn’t exactly been prolific but they have had 18+ points every game and scored on at least three or more drives every game.
So yeah, the ultimate zag predicting points in an Iowa home game.
Sean’s 3rd Pick:
Penn State (-4.5) vs USC
I hate to double up on the same game as Jordan, but it’s hard not to when this seems to obvious. USC had a nice win in the opener against LSU that easily could have gone the other way. D’Anton Lynn has helped this defense take a tremendous step forward in just one year and Miller Moss has been great at quarterback despite the loss last week. But just three games into their inaugural Big Ten season, it is clear that USC is struggling to keep up in the trenches.
USC’s undersized defensive line have allowed Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to run all over them. The latter is to be expected, but the Badgers and Gophers haven’t been their usual dominant selves on the ground this year. USC’s offensive line has also failed to allow this offense to fully utilize their dynamic backfield of Marks & Joyner.
Penn State, meanwhile, has been as dominant as ever on both lines of scrimmage. Nick Singleton is running like one of the best backs in college football and Abdul Carter has finally emerged as a game-wrecker at defensive end. If USC struggled to keep up with Wisconsin and Minnesota along the line of scrimmage, I can’t imagine a scenario where they are able to tame the Nittany Lions.
If this game were being played in Happy Valley, I think Penn State would be 10-point favorites. Big Ten teams have struggled in cross-country travels so far this season, but veteran presence on both sides of the football should right the ship for Penn State. Nittany Lions will win by a touchdown.
Jordan’s 3rd Pick:
Purdue at Illinois (-22.5) U48.5
The sharks have drained some value here. At -19.5 points on open was a tall task for Illinois to cover. Now, Illini has to beat Purdue by MORE than 3 touchdowns to cover?
Listen, the Boilers are so bad that Illinois might still cover a ridiculous spread like that. But you are asking a lot there. You need Purdue to not have any fight again. You need Illinois to want to murder Purdue and go balls to the wall a week before they have to play Michigan. You need it to basically follow one exact script. Meanwhile there are plenty of versions of this game where Illinois beats Purdue comfortably and the under hits.
This total is too high for Illinois’ offense and I am a supporter of Luke Altmyer and the Illini. Purdue’s offense doesn’t have enough juice. Comfy Under in my opinion.
Picks for Every Big Ten Game
Sean: 6-2 last week (43-26 overall)
Jordan: 4-4 last week (43-26 overall)
Disclaimer: Spreads & Over/Unders (left column) are updated up until kick-off, but our picks are locked in every Thursday. Follow @TheFloorSlap to get in on our picks ASAP!
| Game | Sean’s Picks | Jordan’s Picks |
| NWST at MD (-10.5) O/U: 45.5 | Points! O45.5 | Too much prep for Terps MD -10.5 |
| WASH at IOWA (-2.5) O/U: 40.5 | See below for more UW hype WASH +2.5 | At some point you will regret this just hope it’s not after the game is over O40.5 |
| WISC at RUTG (-2.5) O/U: 41.5 | Big Ten at their very best U41.5 | Not falling for the line movement U41.5 |
| Penn St (-4.5) at USC O/U: 50.5 | Playoffs? PSU -4.5 | Lincoln Riley has had 3 losses every season at USC PSU -4.5 |
| PURD at ILL (-22.5) O/U: 48.5 | Purdue can’t stop a grocery bag in the wind O48.5 | Does Walters make it to the IU game? U48.5 |
| OSU (-3.5) at OREG O/U: 52.5 | O-H! OSU -3.5 | Can we have a non-SEC team be no.1 please? OSU -3.5 |
| MINN (-3.5) at UCLA O/U: 40.5 | Bruins look more respectable maybe? UCLA +3.5 | U for Ugly U40.5 |
$100 FanDuel Balance Challenge NEED TO UPDATE STILL
| Last Week | Current Balance | |
| Sean | ($5.48) | $130.39 |
| Jordan | ($6.30) | $110.28 |
Started season with a $100 balance
Sean’s Week 7 Picks:
My picks are going to be short with the lack of internet in my current accomodations…
Alabama vs South Carolina: O50.50 – $11 to win $10
- Alabama’s defense is an absolute mess. This is the move until further notice.
Ohio State (-3.5) – $15 to win $14.71
Penn State (-4.5) – $15 to win $13.04
Washington ML – $10 to win $11.80
- Washington stopped beating themselves against Michigan and were able to beat the defending champs by two possessions. If they can limit mistakes, they are the better team than Iowa.
Jordan’s Week 7 Picks
I need to start gaining some momentum. Normally we do our out of conference picks to highlight more games, but this week I’m leaning into the Big Ten because that’s where I am most comfortable.
So real quick let’s bang out three ones I’ve talked about:
Penn State -4.5 vs USC – $7.50 to win $6.52
Purdue Illinois Under – $7.50 to win $6.82
Ohio State -3.5 over Oregon – $7.50 to win $7.35
Then here are two I haven’t talked about with a sentence or two on each.
Under 50.5 in Texas OU – $7.50 to win $6.82
- Oklahoma will be lucky to crack 10 points. Will Texas get 6 touchdowns to hit the over?
Tenn -15.5 over Florida – $7.50 to win $6.94
- Get right game in Knoxville. People are off the scent on how bad the Gators are.
That is our punctual betting guide for Week 7. Next week, we will have our regular betting guide and maybe a report from Autzen Stadium. Maybe! You’ll have to tune in next week to find out. Please bet responsibly and enjoy a wonderful fall weekend of Football.